Thursday, February 4, 2010

A Note on The All Time Domestic #1s: Star Wars, E.T., Titanic

As noted here, Titanic held the record for biggest domestic film for for 620 weeks, or 4,343 days, or 11 years, 10 months, and 19 days.


What about previous record holders? Well, given the sparse data, exact dates can't really be given for films prior to the 1980s, although Gone With the Wind has occupied the top perch for longer than any film, from 1939 to the 1960s. Beginning with E.T., however, it is possible to get some exact info. OK, so here it goes:

Between its May 1977 opening and E.T. release in June, 1982, Star Wars: A New Hope had accumulated a total of $307,263,857, making it the biggest film of all time, surpassing Jaws, whose total was at around $260m. As evident from this chart, Star Wars' total did not approach $200m, let alone $300m, until well after 1977, and it's likely that the film did not surpass Jaws until sometime in the middle of 1978, a year after its release.

E.T. opened on June 11th, 1982. Almost exactly two months later, in August, Star Wars was re-released, adding $15,476,285 to its original tally. That brought A New Hope's total to $322,740,142- the benchmark E.T. had to surpass in order to claim the all-time record.

As it happens, while Star Wars was having its re-release, E.T. was experiencing a stunning run at the box office. The film was #1 for most of the summer, and would end up with 16 weekends at #1, more than any other film and one more weekend than Titanic.

E.T. surpassed the $300m mark on Dec. 11th, 1982, 184 days into its run (see here), and surpassed Star Wars' initial total of $307.3m on Dec. 25th, 1982.

On January 14th, 1983, with a total of $322,956,667, E.T. surpassed Star Was to claim the record for biggest domestic release. If we take mid-1978 as the moment at which Star Wars surpassed Jaws, then that means that it held the record for biggest film of all time for roughly 4 1/2 years, or 54 months.

E.T.'s initial total came out to an enormous $359,197,037. The film had two re-releases, one in 1985, and one in 2002 (which we don't have to worry about). The film's 1985 release was hugely successful, adding $40,607,502 to the film's initital gross for a total of $399,804,539. This number, so tantalizingly close to $400m, would be the domestic benchmark for over a decade, until Star Wars' re-release in 1997.

The Star Wars trilogy was re-released in 1997. The re-releases were spectacularly successful; A New Hope added $138,257,865 to its gross, bringing its total just before Titanic's release to $460,998,007, thereby allowing the film to re-claim the all-time title from E.T.

Star Wars surpassed E.T.'s $399.8m, and became the first film to surpass the $400m mark, on February 13th, 1997.

E.T. was the #1 film of all time, therefore, between January 14th, 1983 and February 13th, 1997. It held the record for an astonishing 5,144 days (801 more than Titanic), or almost 735 weeks (115 weeks more than Titanic), or for slightly more than 14 years.

Star Wars' reign as the new, old champ, of course, did not last long. The film was surpassed by Titanic on March 14th, 1998. Star Wars was, therefore, #1 for 394 days, or 56 weeks and 2 days. In combination with its initial run, the film was #1 for around 5 1/2 years, or roughly 67 months.


In summary, therefore:

E.T. January 14th, 1983-February 13th, 1997 (5,144 days)
Star Wars: A New Hope February 13th, 1997-March 14th, 1998 (394 days)
Titanic March 14th, 1998-February 2nd, 2010 (4,343 days)
Avatar February 2nd, 2010-?

One interesting note: since Star Wars surpassed Jaws in the summer of 1978, for the last 30 years, the domestic box office crown passed from one film to another during the first three months of the year.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Avatar Surpasses Titanic's Domestic Record

The most prestigious record at the domestic box office is now, as expected, Avatar's. On Tuesday, Avatar surpassed Titanic to become the biggest film of all time at the North American box office. The film, now at $601,141,551 after 47 days, surpassed Titanic's $600,788,188 cume. James Cameron is now the only filmmakers whose film has surpassed his previous one to achieve the all time record. Steven Spielberg came very, very close with Jurassic Park and E.T., but Jurassic Park, while it raced past E.T. globally, remained well behind E.T. on the domestic front.

Avatar will not be losing much steam anytime soon, and looks headed for $800m now. A truly historic run, irrespective of the film's artistic merits.

As for Titanic, it became the biggest film of all time on March 14th, 1998, on its 86th day, by surpassing Star Wars: A New Hope's $461m, which included the $138m tally from the film's 1997 re-release.

Titanic was #1 domestically for 620 weeks, or 4,343 days, or 11 years, 10 months, and 19 days.

It is highly unlikely that Avatar's record will stand for this long. In fact, I expect a film to surpass Avatar sometime this decade, as ticket price inflation will increase the likelihood of $500m+ films. And as Avatar itself demonstrates, nothing remains stagnant at the box office.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Avatar Weekend Records: 2nd to 7th Weekends

In my opinion, the most impressive aspect of Avatar's run domestically and internationally has been its amazing legs; the film has held up incredibly well weekend to weekend, and in fact now holds the biggest second to seventh weekends. Also incredible: the difference between its new records and the previous ones. The film has been ahead of the other films, mostly Titanic, by very wide margins. The film will have enough to steam to get the 8th weekend record as well next week, but the 9th weekend record, which is held by Titanic with $28m, looks to be finally too insurmountable for Avatar. Overall, however, a truly historic streak of records.



Second Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $75,617,183 3,456 $21,880 Diff. #1&2 $450,717
2 The Dark Knight $75,166,466 4,366 $17,216 % Diff. 0.60%
3 Shrek 2 $72,170,363 4,223 $17,089
4 Spider-Man $71,417,527 3,615 $19,755
5 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $62,345,264 4,133 $15,084
Third Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $68,490,688 3,461 $19,789 Diff. #1&2 $23,453,776
2 Spider-Man $45,036,912 3,615 $12,458 % Diff. 52.08%
3 The Dark Knight $42,664,219 4,266 $10,001
4 Shrek 2 $37,931,716 4,131 $9,182
5 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $35,215,201 4,133 $8,520
Fourth Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $50,306,217 3,422 $14,701 Diff. #1&2 $21,589,907
2 Titanic $28,716,310 2,746 $10,458 % Diff. 75.18%
3 Spider-Man $28,508,104 3,876 $7,355
4 The Dark Knight $26,117,030 4,025 $6,489
5 The Chronicles of Narnia 1 $25,686,555 3,853 $6,666
Fifth Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $42,785,612 3,285 $13,025 Diff. #1&2 $12,774,578
2 Titanic $30,011,034 2,767 $10,846 % Diff. 42.57%
3 The Sixth Sense $22,896,967 2,775 $8,251
4 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace $18,859,021 3,019 $6,246
5 The Dark Knight $16,379,293 3,590 $4,562
Sixth Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $34,944,081 3,141 $11,125 Diff. #1&2 $9,705,361
2 Titanic $25,238,720 2,771 $9,108 % Diff. 38.45%
3 The Sixth Sense $16,511,464 2,782 $5,935
4 Mrs. Doubtfire $16,346,568 2,325 $7,030
5 Aladdin $15,642,073 2,255 $6,936
Seventh Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $31,280,029 3,074 $10,176 Diff. #1&2 $5,372,857
2 Titanic $25,907,172 2,853 $9,081 % Diff. 20.74%
3 The Passion of the Christ $15,216,723 3,240 $4,696
4 The Blind Side $11,912,749 2,926 $4,071
5 Mrs. Doubtfire $11,536,024 2,345 $4,919


Here's a graph comparing Avatar's weekends grosses with those of either the top films or the previous record holders. Avatar corresponds to the black line; the other reflects The Dark Knight's opening weekend record, Spider-Man 1's previous third weekend record, and for the rest, Titanic's previous 4th to 7th weekend records.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

AVATAR vs. TITANIC International Market Shares

Avatar surpassed Titanic's international gross over the weekend, thus claiming one of Titanic's three big records. Avatar has made $1,287,060,822 internationally thus far, roughly $50m more than Titanic's once insurmountable $1,248,025,607. Sometime on Monday, Avatar claimed the ultimate, worldwide record by surpassing Titanic's global total of $1.848B. The domestic record is several days away from being surpassed, but it is an inevitability.


I have run out of words to describe Avatar's worldwide performance. It is, now, quite literally incomparable. I don't expect Avatar to hold the international record for as long as Titanic did, but its final tally, which will probably be around $1.8B or so, will be extremely difficult to match anytime soon.

I think it is useful to look at the market share for each film, and how much the major territories contributed to the grosses for both films.


Two things stick out:

1) Both Avatar and Titanic did exceptionally well in every market. Consistency is one of the key features of both films' successes.

2) Whereas Japan was the main market for Titanic, it is clear that for Avatar, the newer markets (China, Russia, and South Korea) have made the big difference and pushed the film over the top. In a way, the differences between the two films reflect the changes in the global economic structure. China recently surpassed Japan as the second largest economy in the world, and the economies of Russia and other emerging markets have grown by a disproportionately larger market. China is on track to surpass France as Avatar's largest market.



Friday, January 22, 2010

Avatar Vs. The Dark Knight Vs. Titanic Daily Gross

As with the weekly figures, what is remarkable here is Avatar's consistency, which contrasts starkly with The Dark Knight's (still great) holds and holds up well in comparison with Titanic's.

Day Avatar The Dark Knight Titanic
1 $26,752,099 $67,165,092 $8,658,814
2 $25,529,036 -4.57% $47,650,240 -29.06% $10,672,013 23.25%
3 $24,744,346 -3.07% $43,596,151 -8.51% $9,307,304 -12.79%
4 $16,385,820 -33.78% $24,493,313 -43.82% $5,578,212 -40.07%
5 $16,086,461 -1.83% $20,868,722 -14.80% $6,003,119 7.62%
6 $16,445,291 2.23% $18,377,288 -11.94% $3,571,345 -40.51%
7 $11,150,998 -32.19% $16,464,405 -10.41% $9,178,529 157.00%
8 $23,095,046 107.11% $23,232,292 41.11% $12,122,298 32.07%
9 $28,274,406 22.43% $28,272,494 21.69% $12,466,455 2.84%
10 $24,247,681 -14.24% $23,661,680 -16.31% $10,866,920 -12.83%
11 $19,418,139 -19.92% $10,518,116 -55.55% $7,942,520 -26.91%
12 $18,290,628 -5.81% $9,629,366 -8.45% $8,012,909 0.89%
13 $18,466,123 0.96% $8,755,141 -9.08% $8,213,735 2.51%
14 $14,738,136 -20.19% $8,402,546 -4.03% $11,558,520 40.72%
15 $25,274,008 71.49% $12,709,035 51.25% $11,698,861 1.21%
16 $25,835,551 2.22% $17,191,150 35.27% $12,726,625 8.79%
17 $17,381,129 -32.72% $12,764,034 -25.75% $8,889,792 -30.15%
18 $8,094,554 -53.43% $6,287,429 -50.74% $3,022,271 -66.00%
19 $7,327,233 -9.48% $5,661,240 -9.96% $3,044,822 0.75%
20 $6,909,167 -5.71% $5,077,367 -10.31% $2,841,351 -6.68%
21 $6,094,445 -11.79% $4,734,366 -6.76% $2,789,088 -1.84%
22 $13,280,653 117.91% $7,577,362 60.05% $7,738,150 177.44%
23 $21,269,537 60.15% $10,502,243 38.60% $12,758,118 64.87%
24 $15,756,027 -25.92% $8,037,425 -23.47% $8,220,042 -35.57%
25 $5,111,193 -67.56% $3,742,198 -53.44% $2,170,146 -73.60%
26 $5,066,734 -0.87% $3,515,389 -6.06% $2,386,164 9.95%
27 $4,743,762 -6.37% $3,002,302 -14.60% $2,095,782 -12.17%
28 $4,698,802 -0.95% $2,814,471 -6.26% $2,200,465 4.99%
29 $10,394,264 121.21% $4,937,955 75.45% $7,418,385 237.13%
30 $17,254,108 66.00% $6,708,833 35.86% $12,357,344 66.58%
31 $15,137,240 -12.27% $4,732,505 -29.46% $10,235,305 -17.17%
32 $11,615,834 -23.26% $2,112,206 -55.37% $6,003,510 -41.35%
33 $4,190,947 -63.92% $2,148,332 1.71% $2,322,334 -61.32%
34 $3,792,807 -9.50% $1,805,312 -15.97% $2,076,976 -10.57%
35 $3,945,213 4.02% $1,726,461 -4.37% $2,212,942 6.55%




As you can see, Avatar has been well ahead of Titanic since the start, and its consistency has allowed it to outpace The Dark Knight convincingly.

Avatar Vs. The Dark Knight Vs. Titanic Weekly Gross

As Avatar enters its 6th week, during which it will surpass The Dark Knight and inch closer to Titanic, I think it's useful to look back on its performance in comparison to those two films during the first 5 weeks.


First off, in terms of weekly grosses, what is remarkable is just how consistent Avatar's grosses have been. It has surged far, far ahead of The Dark Knight and remains well ahead of Titanic.


Avatar The Dark Knight Titanic
Week 1 $137,094,051 $238,615,211 $52,969,336
Week 2 $146,530,159 6.88% $112,471,635 -52.86% $71,183,357 34.39%
Week 3 $96,916,087 -33.86% $64,424,621 -42.72% $45,012,810 -36.76%
Week 4 $69,926,708 -27.85% $39,191,390 -39.17% $37,568,867 -16.54%
Week 5 $66,330,413 -5.14% $24,171,604 -38.32% $42,626,796 13.46%


Monday, January 11, 2010

Speculative Admissions and Adjusted Figures for 4th Weekend

These are, as the title of this post suggest, entirely speculative numbers, and should not be taken too seriously beyond a general point. The main point to take from all this is that 1) Avatar's fourth weekend is impressive even when inflation is taken into consideration (I assigned Avatar a higher ticket price and therefore lower admissions figure due to 3D/IMAX), and 2) Titanic is much closer to Avatar admissions wise than it might appear initially. I suspect that Titanic's average ticket price was probably less than half of what it is for Avatar.


NOTE: These are NOT ranked or exhaustive lists, merely a sample of films in their 4th weekends.

Title Adj. # Count Avg.
Avatar $50,687,825 2,746 $18,459
Titanic $45,921,604 3,422 $13,420
Star Wars: Episode I - TPM $37,843,791 3,024 $12,514
Spider-Man $36,800,478 3,876 $9,494
Jurassic Park $34,365,225 2,496 $13,768
Forrest Gump $32,655,962 2,117 $15,426
Monsters, Inc. $31,875,001 3,649 $8,735
The Lion King $30,298,249 2,624 $11,547
The Chronicles of Narnia $30,054,472 3,853 $7,800
The Sixth Sense $29,673,940 2,763 $10,740
Twister $29,037,056 2,808 $10,341
Batman $28,553,681 2,201 $12,973
The Incredibles $28,478,598 3,453 $8,247
Shrek 2 $28,160,531 3,843 $7,328
The Dark Knight $27,281,020 4,025 $6,778
Elf $26,927,664 3,202 $8,410
Finding Nemo $26,291,980 3,404 $7,724
How the Grinch Stole Christmas $25,945,993 3,182 $8,154
Up $23,972,119 3,832 $6,256
POTC: Dead Man's Chest $23,595,318 3,834 $6,154
The Passion of the Christ $23,447,315 3,250 $7,215
POTC: The Curse of the Black Pearl $23,437,866 3,390 $6,914
Meet the Fockers $22,600,735 3,554 $6,359
Ocean's Eleven $22,404,215 3,075 $7,286
Shrek $21,890,528 3,715 $5,892
Iron Man $21,358,551 3,915 $5,456
Meet the Parents $20,939,436 2,647 $7,911
LOTR: The Fellowship of the Ring $20,913,847 3,381 $6,186
What Women Want $20,611,793 3,052 $6,754
The Mummy Returns $20,056,246 3,553 $5,645
The Ring $20,018,677 2,927 $6,839
A Beautiful Mind $19,648,070 2,222 $8,843
Wedding Crashers $18,761,908 3,106 $6,041
Night at the Museum $18,708,965 3,612 $5,180
Spider-Man 2 $18,135,111 3,753 $4,832


Title Est. Adm. Count Avg.
Titanic 6,122,881 2,746 2,230
Avatar 5,918,378 3,422 1,730
Star Wars: Episode I - TPM 5,045,839 3,024 1,669
Spider-Man 4,906,730 3,876 1,266
Jurassic Park 4,582,030 2,496 1,836
Forrest Gump 4,354,128 2,117 2,057
Monsters, Inc. 4,250,000 3,649 1,165
The Lion King 4,039,767 2,624 1,540
The Chronicles of Narnia 4,007,263 3,853 1,040
The Sixth Sense 3,956,525 2,763 1,432
Twister 3,871,607 2,808 1,379
Batman 3,807,157 2,201 1,730
The Incredibles 3,797,146 3,453 1,100
Shrek 2 3,754,738 3,843 977
The Dark Knight 3,637,469 4,025 904
Elf 3,590,355 3,202 1,121
Finding Nemo 3,505,597 3,404 1,030
How the Grinch Stole Christmas 3,459,466 3,182 1,087
Up 3,196,283 3,832 834
POTC: Dead Man's Chest 3,146,042 3,834 821
The Passion of the Christ 3,126,309 3,250 962
POTC: The Curse of the Black Pearl 3,125,049 3,390 922
Meet the Fockers 3,013,431 3,554 848
Ocean's Eleven 2,987,229 3,075 971
Shrek 2,918,737 3,715 786
Iron Man 2,847,807 3,915 727
Meet the Parents 2,791,925 2,647 1,055
LOTR: The Fellowship of the Ring 2,788,513 3,381 825
What Women Want 2,748,239 3,052 900
The Mummy Returns 2,674,166 3,553 753
The Ring 2,669,157 2,927 912
A Beautiful Mind 2,619,743 2,222 1,179
Wedding Crashers 2,501,588 3,106 805
Night at the Museum 2,494,529 3,612 691
Spider-Man 2 2,418,015 3,753 644
The Hangover 2,315,941 3,525 657
Shrek the Third 2,226,397 3,925 567
I Am Legend 2,189,061 3,648 600
Alvin and the Chipmunks 2,165,198 3,462 625
A Christmas Carol (2009) 2,143,983 3,013 712
The Blind Side 2,048,334 3,388 605

Biggest Fourth Weekends

Avatar completely obliterated Titanic's 12 year fourth weekend record, almost doubling its predecessor's fourth weekend number. Notice Avatar's high theatre count average, which is in fact by far the highest for any film with a 4th weekend gross above $15m (wide release). The $50.3m fourth weekend number makes Avatar the first film to have 4 weekends above $50m (in fact, it is the only film to have 3 or more $50m+ weekends and the only one to have 3 $60m+ weekends as well).

This sets the film up to break Titanic's amazing 5th weekend figure of $30m next weekend, and there's a strong possibility that Avatar will also snatch Titanic's 6th weekend record. A $600m+ gross is all but guaranteed at this point, making Avatar the biggest film of all time.

Avatar $50,306,217 -26.6% 3,422 $14,701
Titanic $28,716,310 -13.8% 2,746 $10,457
Spider-Man $28,508,104 -36.7% 3,876 $7,355
The Dark Knight $26,117,030 -38.8% 4,025 $6,489
The Chronicles of Narnia $25,686,555 29.9% 3,853 $6,666
Star Wars: Episode I - TPM $25,632,861 -22.1% 3,024 $8,476
Monsters, Inc. $24,055,001 5.9% 3,649 $6,592
The Incredibles $23,580,279 -11.1% 3,453 $6,828
Up $23,492,677 -23.6% 3,832 $6,131
Shrek 2 $23,316,920 -38.5% 3,843 $6,067
Elf $21,649,842 15.7% 3,202 $6,761
Finding Nemo $21,138,752 -25.5% 3,404 $6,209
POTC: Dead Man's Chest $20,606,578 -41.5% 3,834 $5,374
Iron Man $20,447,253 -35.8% 3,915 $5,223
The Sixth Sense $20,099,149 -16.1% 2,763 $7,274
The Passion of the Christ $19,414,377 -39.6% 3,250 $5,973
Meet the Fockers $19,316,095 -32.2% 3,554 $5,435
Jurassic Park $18,969,605 -8.6% 2,496 $7,600
POTC: The Curse of the Black Pearl $18,844,044 -18.6% 3,390 $5,558
How the Grinch Stole Christmas $18,646,520 -31.2% 3,182 $5,860
Forrest Gump $18,200,256 -17.0% 2,117 $8,597
Night at the Museum $17,162,357 -27.7% 3,612 $4,751
Twister $17,112,505 -42.3% 2,808 $6,094
The Hangover $17,022,166 -36.4% 3,525 $4,829
Ocean's Eleven $16,907,714 14.9% 3,075 $5,498
The Lion King $16,886,224 -30.9% 2,624 $6,435
Shrek $16,520,052 -41.4% 3,715 $4,446
LOTR: The Fellowship of the Ring $16,201,260 -29.6% 3,381 $4,791
Wedding Crashers $16,035,177 -19.9% 3,106 $5,162
A Christmas Carol (2009) $15,758,273 28.4% 3,013 $5,230
I Am Legend $15,717,458 -42.7% 3,648 $4,308
What Women Want $15,555,033 -25.3% 3,052 $5,096
Alvin and the Chipmunks $15,546,125 -46.4% 3,462 $4,490
The Ring $15,507,802 -14.4% 2,927 $5,298
Shrek the Third $15,317,614 -45.3% 3,925 $3,902
A Beautiful Mind $15,220,705 -8.1% 2,222 $6,850
The Mummy Returns $15,135,780 -25.9% 3,553 $4,260
Batman $15,114,415 -21.5% 2,201 $6,867
The Blind Side $15,055,258 -24.9% 3,388 $4,444
Meet the Parents $15,048,475 -6.0% 2,647 $5,685
Spider-Man 2 $15,015,872 -39.4% 3,753 $4,001