Avatar Estimated Admissions: Daily, Weekend, Weekly, Total

Admissions figures are always problematic in North America, since films are simply not tracked that way, but Avatar poses a particular challenge, because of the 3D and IMAX effect. The New York Times recently gave 56m as the rough estimate for tickets sold through last Monday, at which point Avatar's gross stood at $554.9m. You can read the article here.

The relevant passage:

Fox said 72 percent of worldwide sales for “Avatar” came from 3-D screens. If Mr. Dergarabedian’s estimates are correct, the movie has accounted for roughly 56 million admissions in domestic theaters to date.

That means that Avatar's average ticket price is around $9.9, which is astonishingly high. Almost 35% higher than the 2009 average of $7.35. Using that figure as the benchmark, then, here are the estimated admissions figures for Avatar's daily numbers:

Day	Weekday	Daily #	Weekend #	Weekly #	Total #
1	Friday	2,702,232			2,702,232
2	Saturday	2,578,691			5,280,923
3	Sunday	2,499,429	7,780,352		7,780,352
4	Monday	1,655,133			9,435,485
5	Tuesday	1,624,895			11,060,380
6	Wednesday	1,661,141			12,721,521
7	Thursday	1,126,363		13,847,884	13,847,884
8	Friday	2,332,833			16,180,717
9	Saturday	2,856,001			19,036,717
10	Sunday	2,449,261	7,638,094		21,485,978
11	Monday	1,961,428			23,447,406
12	Tuesday	1,847,538			25,294,945
13	Wednesday	1,865,265			27,160,209
14	Thursday	1,488,701		14,801,026	28,648,910
15	Friday	2,552,930			31,201,840
16	Saturday	2,609,652			33,811,492
17	Sunday	1,755,670	6,918,251		35,567,161
18	Monday	817,632			36,384,793
19	Tuesday	740,125			37,124,918
20	Wednesday	697,896			37,822,813
21	Thursday	615,601		9,789,504	38,438,414
22	Friday	1,341,480			39,779,894
23	Saturday	2,148,438			41,928,332
24	Sunday	1,591,518	5,081,436		43,519,850
25	Monday	516,282			44,036,132
26	Tuesday	511,791			44,547,923
27	Wednesday	479,168			45,027,091
28	Thursday	474,626		7,063,304	45,501,718
29	Friday	1,049,926			46,551,643
30	Saturday	1,742,839			48,294,483
31	Sunday	1,529,014	4,321,779		49,823,497
32	Monday	1,173,317			50,996,813
33	Tuesday	423,328			51,420,141
34	Wednesday	383,112			51,803,253
35	Thursday	398,506		6,700,042	52,201,759
36	Friday	911,969			53,113,728
37	Saturday	1,649,096			54,762,824
38	Sunday	968,640	3,529,705		55,731,465
39	Monday	327,292			56,058,757
40	Tuesday	323,035			56,381,792

Avatar Vs. The Dark Knight Vs. Titanic Daily Gross

As with the weekly figures, what is remarkable here is Avatar's consistency, which contrasts starkly with The Dark Knight's (still great) holds and holds up well in comparison with Titanic's.

Day	Avatar		The Dark Knight		Titanic
1	$26,752,099		$67,165,092		$8,658,814
2	$25,529,036	-4.57%	$47,650,240	-29.06%	$10,672,013	23.25%
3	$24,744,346	-3.07%	$43,596,151	-8.51%	$9,307,304	-12.79%
4	$16,385,820	-33.78%	$24,493,313	-43.82%	$5,578,212	-40.07%
5	$16,086,461	-1.83%	$20,868,722	-14.80%	$6,003,119	7.62%
6	$16,445,291	2.23%	$18,377,288	-11.94%	$3,571,345	-40.51%
7	$11,150,998	-32.19%	$16,464,405	-10.41%	$9,178,529	157.00%
8	$23,095,046	107.11%	$23,232,292	41.11%	$12,122,298	32.07%
9	$28,274,406	22.43%	$28,272,494	21.69%	$12,466,455	2.84%
10	$24,247,681	-14.24%	$23,661,680	-16.31%	$10,866,920	-12.83%
11	$19,418,139	-19.92%	$10,518,116	-55.55%	$7,942,520	-26.91%
12	$18,290,628	-5.81%	$9,629,366	-8.45%	$8,012,909	0.89%
13	$18,466,123	0.96%	$8,755,141	-9.08%	$8,213,735	2.51%
14	$14,738,136	-20.19%	$8,402,546	-4.03%	$11,558,520	40.72%
15	$25,274,008	71.49%	$12,709,035	51.25%	$11,698,861	1.21%
16	$25,835,551	2.22%	$17,191,150	35.27%	$12,726,625	8.79%
17	$17,381,129	-32.72%	$12,764,034	-25.75%	$8,889,792	-30.15%
18	$8,094,554	-53.43%	$6,287,429	-50.74%	$3,022,271	-66.00%
19	$7,327,233	-9.48%	$5,661,240	-9.96%	$3,044,822	0.75%
20	$6,909,167	-5.71%	$5,077,367	-10.31%	$2,841,351	-6.68%
21	$6,094,445	-11.79%	$4,734,366	-6.76%	$2,789,088	-1.84%
22	$13,280,653	117.91%	$7,577,362	60.05%	$7,738,150	177.44%
23	$21,269,537	60.15%	$10,502,243	38.60%	$12,758,118	64.87%
24	$15,756,027	-25.92%	$8,037,425	-23.47%	$8,220,042	-35.57%
25	$5,111,193	-67.56%	$3,742,198	-53.44%	$2,170,146	-73.60%
26	$5,066,734	-0.87%	$3,515,389	-6.06%	$2,386,164	9.95%
27	$4,743,762	-6.37%	$3,002,302	-14.60%	$2,095,782	-12.17%
28	$4,698,802	-0.95%	$2,814,471	-6.26%	$2,200,465	4.99%
29	$10,394,264	121.21%	$4,937,955	75.45%	$7,418,385	237.13%
30	$17,254,108	66.00%	$6,708,833	35.86%	$12,357,344	66.58%
31	$15,137,240	-12.27%	$4,732,505	-29.46%	$10,235,305	-17.17%
32	$11,615,834	-23.26%	$2,112,206	-55.37%	$6,003,510	-41.35%
33	$4,190,947	-63.92%	$2,148,332	1.71%	$2,322,334	-61.32%
34	$3,792,807	-9.50%	$1,805,312	-15.97%	$2,076,976	-10.57%
35	$3,945,213	4.02%	$1,726,461	-4.37%	$2,212,942	6.55%

As you can see, Avatar has been well ahead of Titanic since the start, and its consistency has allowed it to outpace The Dark Knight convincingly.

Biggest Fourth Mondays

This is not a complete list, but I do believe that Avatar now has the fifth largest 4th Monday and the largest non-holiday Monday. Narnia's 4th Monday fell on Jan. 2nd, and was therefore inflated by the Winter holidays; Spider-Man's and Iron Man's 4th Mondays fell on Memorial Day, while Jurassic Park's fell on July 5th, 1993, a day after Independence Day.

Avatar's number is very strong, particularly given that it's in the middle of January, which tends to be a terrible period for weekdays. Its fifth Monday will be a holiday, so expect a new record and an increase from this week's tally.

Title	Gross	Count	Avg.
The Chronicles of Narnia: TLWW	$8,025,469	3,853	$2,083
Spider-Man	$7,306,740	3,876	$1,885
Jurassic Park	$6,327,360	2,496	$2,535
Iron Man	$5,663,877	3,915	$1,447
Avatar	$5,111,193	3,422	$1,494
Black Hawk Down	$5,016,000	3,101	$1,618
Night at the Museum	$4,685,510	3,612	$1,297
Ocean's Eleven	$4,413,000	3,075	$1,435
Cars	$4,356,729	3,706	$1,176
Mummy Returns, The	$3,908,225	3,550	$1,101
Spider-Man 3	$3,776,825	3,723	$1,014
The Dark Knight	$3,742,198	4,015	$932
Gladiator	$3,634,125	3,188	$1,140
Blair Witch Project, The	$3,443,381	2,142	$1,608
Freaky Friday	$3,381,996	3,067	$1,103
Meet the Fockers	$3,198,555	3,554	$900
Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me	$3,096,652	3,091	$1,002
Star Wars: Phantom Menace	$3,025,265	3,024	$1,000
Mummy, The	$2,902,725	3,395	$855
Shrek 2	$2,877,887	3,843	$749
Cheaper by the Dozen	$2,871,957	3,025	$949
POTC: The Curse of the Black Pearl	$2,841,937	3,390	$838
XXX	$2,802,693	3,536	$793
Up	$2,790,206	3,832	$728
X2: X-Men United	$2,738,716	3,067	$893
Finding Nemo	$2,732,840	3,404	$803
POTC: Dead Man's Chest	$2,603,407	3,834	$679
The Bucket List	$2,585,476	2,915	$887
The Hangover	$2,578,117	3,525	$731
Cast Away	$2,531,447	3,048	$831
Memoirs of a Geisha	$2,469,496	1,547	$1,596
S.W.A.T.	$2,445,433	2,781	$879
Rush Hour 3	$2,265,000	3,008	$753
Titanic	$2,170,146	2,746	$790
Wedding Crashers	$2,165,000	3,106	$697
Spy Kids 2: The Island of Lost Dreams	$2,164,717	3,250	$666
Mr. & Mrs. Smith	$2,150,975	2,985	$721
Chicago	$2,141,927	557	$3,845
The Holiday	$2,119,510	2,698	$786
Sixth Sense, The	$2,063,543	2,763	$747
Vertical Limit	$2,044,810	2,456	$833
American Pie 2	$2,024,100	3,115	$650
The Others	$2,011,100	2,716	$740

Films With Most $20M+ Days

You can see my the relatively small number of films on this chart just how difficult it is for movies to have two or more $20m+ days, even with current inflationary forces at play at the box office. In general, films with 2 or 3 days above $20m tend to have large openings and precipitate drops, which is why they do not sustain such sums in subsequent weeks.

Films with 3 or more days above $20m tend to be 1) Thursday or Wednesday releases, 2) mid-week holiday releases, or 3) Memorial Day releases. Spider-Man 2, for example, was released on a Wednesday before the July 4h weekend, and managed to have 6 straight days of $20m+ grosses because its Monday fell on July 5th, giving it an added holiday boost.

Very rarely do films achieve $20m+ figures without holiday aid. There are three exceptions, in fact, and they are big ones:

-Spider-Man 1 opened with $114.8m in 2002, but remarkably, managed to have healthy drops subsequently. It had a $30.5m second Saturday (the only time a film has made more than $30m on a day after opening week) and a $21m second Sunday. Even more remarkably, it managed to register a $20m third Saturday, making it the only film to have a daily gross above $20m outside the first two weeks of release.

-Shrek 2 had a massive opening in 2004, and an even more impressive second weekend, which happened to fall during Memorial Day holidays. That allowed the film to add an additional 4 $20m+ days to its 3 opening weekend days, giving it a total of seven days, a previous record.

-The Dark Knight, which of course had a gargantuan opening weekend, had an even more impressive opening week. The film managed a jaw-dropping $24.5m on its first Monday without the aid of any holiday, and grossed another $20.9m on the following Tuesday. It registered another 3 $20m+ days during its sophomore session. Its total of 8 days above $20m is a stunning record, and a testament to the remarkable run it had, especially during its first few weeks.

$20m+ Days: Franchises & Brands

This chart counts entries for all franchises that had at least two films or more with $20m+ days. That excludes Jurassic Park, for example, because all 3 of its $20m+ days came from 1997's The Lost World.

If there is any doubt about Harry Potter's staying prowess, I think this dispels it. The films have had consistently large opening weekends, and several have had strong sophomore sessions. Expect the gulf between Potter and the other franchises to only widen with the release of the future films.

$20m+ Days By Studio

Just to explain the double rankings of WB and Paramount: DreamWorks has ceased to function as an independent studio and struck a deal with Paramount, so that many huge franchises, including the Shrek and Tranformers films, passed on to Paramount. The figure for DreamWorks covers that period during which it was independent of Paramount, and the same with Paramount's. The figure for Paramount (+DreamWorks) includes figures from DW after the coupling of the two studios. The same goes for WB and New Line.

Warner Bros. remains, either way, the leader by a huge margin, aided by Harry Potter and Batman. Fox has similarly benefitted from the Star Wars films.

Estimated Daily Admissions Figures

So these are the all-time biggest daily admissions figures, and it should come as no surprise that The Dark Knight tops this list as well, given the gargantuan figure it pulled off on opening day.

Staggering as these figures are, it is important to keep in mind that TDK's admissions still account for less than 2.8% of North America's population.

$20m+ Days By Year

I think these figures, more than anything else, highlight just how much has changed in so short a time period. Ticket prices are only part of the reason. Changes in release patterns, a shorter release window due to the increasing DVD and home video market, greater competition for more theatre space, and a greater emphasis on sequels and franchise films-all those factors have contributed to bigger and bigger opening days. Curiously, it seems we have stalled in the last few years after the surge between 1999 and 2001. I also find it interesting that three years this decade havae had exactly 30 $20m+ days. 2008's tally is due to The Dark Knight, above all and everything, while 2007's and 2004's were aided by the Shrek and Spider-Man films.

In graph format:

All-Time Daily Figures: A Summary

Alright, so by way of a summary of the two large preceding charts, let's consider first the breakdown for days above $20m:

Almost half of figures above $20m are also below $25m, suggesting a considerable barrier in that range. I would argue that this is due to the bigger, $25m+ days pushing several other days up with them. Take a film, for example, that opens with $30m on Friday, declines 20% on Saturday to $24m, and another 15% on Sunday to $20.4m. That's two $20-25m days for one $30m opener.

Now let's look at inflation and how inflated figures compare to actuals:

The effect is immediately visible and quite drastic. The change at the top is not particularly striking, largely because those figures come from recent releases anyway. But even there, the fact that the number of $60m+ days doubles is considerable. More startling is the jump in the number of $45m+ days, from 10 to 21.

Daily Figures: Adjusted for Inflation

Here's the chart for daily grosses adjusted for inflation. The one thing to take from this, which becomes clearer in the next post above, is that ticket price inflation has had a marked effect on the upsurge in higher daily numbers over the last decade. The benefit of these adjusted charts is that they do give greater prominence to some older films:

Daily Figures: An Overview of the Largest Daily Grosses

Daily figures are notoriously difficult to account for properly, especially since they were not tracked carefully until fairly recently. Having said that, the vast majority of films that have registered $20m+ grosses are so recent that the charts are generally accurate. Less so are the adjusted ones. At any rate, for a quick overview, here are the biggest daily grosses. Highlighted entries are 2009 releases.

I don't expect 2009 to have many more entries on this list, unless some fall or winter releases break out in a big way. The early and mid summer period releases tend to be dominant here.