Thursday, February 4, 2010

A Note on The All Time Domestic #1s: Star Wars, E.T., Titanic

As noted here, Titanic held the record for biggest domestic film for for 620 weeks, or 4,343 days, or 11 years, 10 months, and 19 days.


What about previous record holders? Well, given the sparse data, exact dates can't really be given for films prior to the 1980s, although Gone With the Wind has occupied the top perch for longer than any film, from 1939 to the 1960s. Beginning with E.T., however, it is possible to get some exact info. OK, so here it goes:

Between its May 1977 opening and E.T. release in June, 1982, Star Wars: A New Hope had accumulated a total of $307,263,857, making it the biggest film of all time, surpassing Jaws, whose total was at around $260m. As evident from this chart, Star Wars' total did not approach $200m, let alone $300m, until well after 1977, and it's likely that the film did not surpass Jaws until sometime in the middle of 1978, a year after its release.

E.T. opened on June 11th, 1982. Almost exactly two months later, in August, Star Wars was re-released, adding $15,476,285 to its original tally. That brought A New Hope's total to $322,740,142- the benchmark E.T. had to surpass in order to claim the all-time record.

As it happens, while Star Wars was having its re-release, E.T. was experiencing a stunning run at the box office. The film was #1 for most of the summer, and would end up with 16 weekends at #1, more than any other film and one more weekend than Titanic.

E.T. surpassed the $300m mark on Dec. 11th, 1982, 184 days into its run (see here), and surpassed Star Wars' initial total of $307.3m on Dec. 25th, 1982.

On January 14th, 1983, with a total of $322,956,667, E.T. surpassed Star Was to claim the record for biggest domestic release. If we take mid-1978 as the moment at which Star Wars surpassed Jaws, then that means that it held the record for biggest film of all time for roughly 4 1/2 years, or 54 months.

E.T.'s initial total came out to an enormous $359,197,037. The film had two re-releases, one in 1985, and one in 2002 (which we don't have to worry about). The film's 1985 release was hugely successful, adding $40,607,502 to the film's initital gross for a total of $399,804,539. This number, so tantalizingly close to $400m, would be the domestic benchmark for over a decade, until Star Wars' re-release in 1997.

The Star Wars trilogy was re-released in 1997. The re-releases were spectacularly successful; A New Hope added $138,257,865 to its gross, bringing its total just before Titanic's release to $460,998,007, thereby allowing the film to re-claim the all-time title from E.T.

Star Wars surpassed E.T.'s $399.8m, and became the first film to surpass the $400m mark, on February 13th, 1997.

E.T. was the #1 film of all time, therefore, between January 14th, 1983 and February 13th, 1997. It held the record for an astonishing 5,144 days (801 more than Titanic), or almost 735 weeks (115 weeks more than Titanic), or for slightly more than 14 years.

Star Wars' reign as the new, old champ, of course, did not last long. The film was surpassed by Titanic on March 14th, 1998. Star Wars was, therefore, #1 for 394 days, or 56 weeks and 2 days. In combination with its initial run, the film was #1 for around 5 1/2 years, or roughly 67 months.


In summary, therefore:

E.T. January 14th, 1983-February 13th, 1997 (5,144 days)
Star Wars: A New Hope February 13th, 1997-March 14th, 1998 (394 days)
Titanic March 14th, 1998-February 2nd, 2010 (4,343 days)
Avatar February 2nd, 2010-?

One interesting note: since Star Wars surpassed Jaws in the summer of 1978, for the last 30 years, the domestic box office crown passed from one film to another during the first three months of the year.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

The Road to #1: An Avatar Box Office Chronology

The following two charts essentially track Avatar's progress up the box office chart, as it was surpassing various films on its way to the #1 spot domestically. As you can see, the brisk pace of the film up the charts is quite amazing. It took the film only ten days after it passed The Dark Knight to surpass Titanic's all time record.



Avatar Surpasses Titanic's Domestic Record

The most prestigious record at the domestic box office is now, as expected, Avatar's. On Tuesday, Avatar surpassed Titanic to become the biggest film of all time at the North American box office. The film, now at $601,141,551 after 47 days, surpassed Titanic's $600,788,188 cume. James Cameron is now the only filmmakers whose film has surpassed his previous one to achieve the all time record. Steven Spielberg came very, very close with Jurassic Park and E.T., but Jurassic Park, while it raced past E.T. globally, remained well behind E.T. on the domestic front.

Avatar will not be losing much steam anytime soon, and looks headed for $800m now. A truly historic run, irrespective of the film's artistic merits.

As for Titanic, it became the biggest film of all time on March 14th, 1998, on its 86th day, by surpassing Star Wars: A New Hope's $461m, which included the $138m tally from the film's 1997 re-release.

Titanic was #1 domestically for 620 weeks, or 4,343 days, or 11 years, 10 months, and 19 days.

It is highly unlikely that Avatar's record will stand for this long. In fact, I expect a film to surpass Avatar sometime this decade, as ticket price inflation will increase the likelihood of $500m+ films. And as Avatar itself demonstrates, nothing remains stagnant at the box office.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Avatar Weekend Records: 2nd to 7th Weekends

In my opinion, the most impressive aspect of Avatar's run domestically and internationally has been its amazing legs; the film has held up incredibly well weekend to weekend, and in fact now holds the biggest second to seventh weekends. Also incredible: the difference between its new records and the previous ones. The film has been ahead of the other films, mostly Titanic, by very wide margins. The film will have enough to steam to get the 8th weekend record as well next week, but the 9th weekend record, which is held by Titanic with $28m, looks to be finally too insurmountable for Avatar. Overall, however, a truly historic streak of records.



Second Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $75,617,183 3,456 $21,880 Diff. #1&2 $450,717
2 The Dark Knight $75,166,466 4,366 $17,216 % Diff. 0.60%
3 Shrek 2 $72,170,363 4,223 $17,089
4 Spider-Man $71,417,527 3,615 $19,755
5 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $62,345,264 4,133 $15,084
Third Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $68,490,688 3,461 $19,789 Diff. #1&2 $23,453,776
2 Spider-Man $45,036,912 3,615 $12,458 % Diff. 52.08%
3 The Dark Knight $42,664,219 4,266 $10,001
4 Shrek 2 $37,931,716 4,131 $9,182
5 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $35,215,201 4,133 $8,520
Fourth Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $50,306,217 3,422 $14,701 Diff. #1&2 $21,589,907
2 Titanic $28,716,310 2,746 $10,458 % Diff. 75.18%
3 Spider-Man $28,508,104 3,876 $7,355
4 The Dark Knight $26,117,030 4,025 $6,489
5 The Chronicles of Narnia 1 $25,686,555 3,853 $6,666
Fifth Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $42,785,612 3,285 $13,025 Diff. #1&2 $12,774,578
2 Titanic $30,011,034 2,767 $10,846 % Diff. 42.57%
3 The Sixth Sense $22,896,967 2,775 $8,251
4 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace $18,859,021 3,019 $6,246
5 The Dark Knight $16,379,293 3,590 $4,562
Sixth Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $34,944,081 3,141 $11,125 Diff. #1&2 $9,705,361
2 Titanic $25,238,720 2,771 $9,108 % Diff. 38.45%
3 The Sixth Sense $16,511,464 2,782 $5,935
4 Mrs. Doubtfire $16,346,568 2,325 $7,030
5 Aladdin $15,642,073 2,255 $6,936
Seventh Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $31,280,029 3,074 $10,176 Diff. #1&2 $5,372,857
2 Titanic $25,907,172 2,853 $9,081 % Diff. 20.74%
3 The Passion of the Christ $15,216,723 3,240 $4,696
4 The Blind Side $11,912,749 2,926 $4,071
5 Mrs. Doubtfire $11,536,024 2,345 $4,919


Here's a graph comparing Avatar's weekends grosses with those of either the top films or the previous record holders. Avatar corresponds to the black line; the other reflects The Dark Knight's opening weekend record, Spider-Man 1's previous third weekend record, and for the rest, Titanic's previous 4th to 7th weekend records.

Saturday, January 30, 2010

Avatar: International Market Shares

This is a ranking of Avatar's markets and the share of the film's total that they account for. France's share, of course, is amazing, as is Australia's and that of many other territories. Avatar's total is spread out generously across many territories. In other words, it's doing great everywhere.


Country/Territory Share Total Gross
United States of America 26.974% $495,990,100
France 6.789% $124,843,250
China 5.608% $103,113,774
Russia 5.235% $96,259,863
Germany 5.211% $95,811,129
United Kingdom and Ireland 5.068% $93,186,189
South Korea 4.334% $79,691,558
Japan 4.225% $77,697,099
Australia 4.188% $77,003,943
Spain 4.133% $76,001,259
Canada 3.032% $55,751,400
Brazil 2.107% $38,740,895
Italy 2.039% $37,486,649
Mexico 1.929% $35,469,025
India 1.211% $22,276,532
Taiwan 1.180% $21,695,287
Hong Kong 0.913% $16,779,658
Poland 0.895% $16,453,985
Netherlands 0.883% $16,240,875
Sweden 0.870% $15,991,521
Denmark 0.866% $15,917,610
Switzerland 0.707% $12,999,706
Turkey 0.673% $12,381,951
Greece 0.631% $11,606,384
Austria 0.618% $11,366,599
Belgium and Luxembourg 0.567% $10,420,392
Norway 0.543% $9,982,702
Colombia 0.510% $9,374,152
Czech Republic/Slovakia 0.505% $9,293,702
New Zealand and Fiji 0.481% $8,836,171
Thailand 0.435% $8,004,189
Venezuela 0.422% $7,767,524
Chile 0.411% $7,564,359
Portugal and Angola 0.403% $7,407,474
Singapore 0.403% $7,405,758
Argentina 0.394% $7,238,075
Malaysia 0.348% $6,407,423
Israel 0.342% $6,288,772
Ukraine 0.323% $5,942,885
Hungary 0.316% $5,805,220
Indonesia 0.285% $5,234,122
Philippines 0.283% $5,197,803
United Arab Emirates 0.282% $5,177,465
Romania 0.233% $4,287,054
Finland 0.227% $4,179,338
Peru 0.210% $3,870,255
Bulgaria 0.164% $3,024,267
Ecuador 0.109% $1,996,001
Slovenia 0.076% $1,391,581
Croatia 0.058% $1,058,533
Dominican Republic 0.056% $1,036,515
Bolivia 0.056% $1,020,908
Egypt 0.054% $989,389
Latvia 0.049% $899,415
Lithuania 0.048% $889,003
Lebanon 0.048% $885,944
Kuwait 0.048% $880,572
Iceland 0.047% $865,636
Vietnam 0.045% $835,523
Estonia 0.043% $793,376
Serbia and Montenegro 0.038% $702,398
Qatar 0.035% $636,745
Uruguay 0.033% $601,515
Jordan 0.028% $513,589
Trinidad & Tobago 0.028% $506,153
Jamaica 0.025% $453,684
Bahrain 0.020% $366,396
Oman 0.008% $141,192
Syria 0.006% $110,169
Nigeria 0.006% $105,308
Ghana 0.001% $22,231
WORLDWIDE $1,838,802,321
NORTH AMERICA (US&CA) 30.005% $551,741,499
INTERNATIONAL 69.995% $1,287,060,822

AVATAR's Worldwide Performance: Per Capita (UPDATE)

This is an update of a chart I posted a while ago (please see below for more info). All of the country totals are for January 24th or January 20th, as is the data for North American and Worldwide grosses. Sources for the box office data is here and for population here.


All of the countries have (of course) improved. Since last Sunday, the film's international has risen to $1.352B, and it will add at least another $80m this weekend. The international tally, in the end, should be well above $1.8B, and the film looks headed for $2.6B Worldwide. Amazing.

Country/Territory Per Capita Gross Total Gross Population
Australia $ 3.4821 $77,003,943 22,114,000
Denmark $ 2.8771 $15,917,610 5,532,531
Iceland $ 2.7256 $865,636 317,593
Hong Kong $ 2.3941 $16,779,658 7,008,900
Norway $ 2.0567 $9,982,702 4,853,800
France $ 1.9185 $124,843,250 65,073,482
Sweden $ 1.7137 $15,991,521 9,331,523
New Zealand and Fiji $ 1.6996 $8,836,171 5,199,100
Switzerland $ 1.6727 $12,999,706 7,771,600
Spain $ 1.6534 $76,001,259 45,967,632
South Korea $ 1.6488 $79,691,558 48,333,000
Canada $ 1.6414 $55,751,400 33,965,000
United States of America $ 1.6085 $495,990,100 308,354,000
Singapore $ 1.4848 $7,405,758 4,987,600
United Kingdom and Ireland $ 1.4013 $93,186,189 66,501,008
Austria $ 1.3575 $11,366,599 8,372,930
Germany $ 1.1701 $95,811,129 81,882,342
United Arab Emirates $ 1.1258 $5,177,465 4,599,000
Greece $ 1.0266 $11,606,384 11,306,183
Netherlands $ 0.9794 $16,240,875 16,581,900
Taiwan $ 0.9404 $21,695,287 23,069,345
Belgium and Luxembourg $ 0.9197 $10,420,392 11,329,726
Israel $ 0.8375 $6,288,772 7,509,000
Finland $ 0.7807 $4,179,338 5,353,600
Portugal and Angola $ 0.6964 $7,407,474 10,636,888
Russia $ 0.6783 $96,259,863 141,915,979
Slovenia $ 0.6782 $1,391,581 2,051,770
Italy $ 0.6222 $37,486,649 60,250,535
Japan $ 0.6092 $77,697,099 127,530,000
Estonia $ 0.5919 $793,376 1,340,415
Czech Republic/Slovakia $ 0.5833 $9,293,702 15,934,334
Hungary $ 0.5797 $5,805,220 10,013,628
Bahrain $ 0.4632 $366,396 791,000
Qatar $ 0.4519 $636,745 1,409,000
Chile $ 0.4445 $7,564,359 17,018,000
Poland $ 0.4319 $16,453,985 38,100,700
Latvia $ 0.3998 $899,415 2,249,700
Bulgaria $ 0.3992 $3,024,267 7,576,751
Trinidad & Tobago $ 0.3780 $506,153 1,339,000
Mexico $ 0.3298 $35,469,025 107,550,697
Kuwait $ 0.2950 $880,572 2,985,000
Venezuela $ 0.2714 $7,767,524 28,623,000
Lithuania $ 0.2670 $889,003 3,329,227
Croatia $ 0.2387 $1,058,533 4,435,056
Malaysia $ 0.2264 $6,407,423 28,306,700
Lebanon $ 0.2097 $885,944 4,224,000
Colombia $ 0.2071 $9,374,152 45,263,000
Brazil $ 0.2014 $38,740,895 192,325,000
Romania $ 0.1997 $4,287,054 21,466,174
Argentina $ 0.1803 $7,238,075 40,134,425
Uruguay $ 0.1790 $601,515 3,361,000
Turkey $ 0.1731 $12,381,951 71,517,100
Jamaica $ 0.1669 $453,684 2,719,000
Ecuador $ 0.1415 $1,996,001 14,111,000
Peru $ 0.1329 $3,870,255 29,132,013
Ukraine $ 0.1292 $5,942,885 46,011,345
Thailand $ 0.1263 $8,004,189 63,389,730
Bolivia $ 0.1033 $1,020,908 9,879,000
Dominican Republic $ 0.1027 $1,036,515 10,090,000
Jordan $ 0.0813 $513,589 6,316,000
China $ 0.0772 $103,113,774 1,335,230,000
Serbia and Montenegro $ 0.0671 $702,398 10,474,000
Philippines $ 0.0564 $5,197,803 92,226,600
Oman $ 0.0496 $141,192 2,845,000
Indonesia $ 0.0226 $5,234,122 231,369,500
India $ 0.0190 $22,276,532 1,175,500,000
Egypt $ 0.0127 $989,389 77,724,000
Vietnam $ 0.0097 $835,523 85,789,573
Syria $ 0.0050 $110,169 21,906,000
Ghana $ 0.0009 $22,231 23,837,000
Nigeria $ 0.0007 $105,308 154,729,000
WORLDWIDE $ 0.2704 $1,838,802,321 6,799,500,000
NORTH AMERICA (US&CA) $ 1.6106 $551,741,499 342,564,000
INTERNATIONAL $ 0.1993 $1,287,060,822 6,456,936,000

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Avatar Estimated Admissions: Daily, Weekend, Weekly, Total

Admissions figures are always problematic in North America, since films are simply not tracked that way, but Avatar poses a particular challenge, because of the 3D and IMAX effect. The New York Times recently gave 56m as the rough estimate for tickets sold through last Monday, at which point Avatar's gross stood at $554.9m. You can read the article here.


The relevant passage:

Fox said 72 percent of worldwide sales for “Avatar” came from 3-D screens. If Mr. Dergarabedian’s estimates are correct, the movie has accounted for roughly 56 million admissions in domestic theaters to date.

That means that Avatar's average ticket price is around $9.9, which is astonishingly high. Almost 35% higher than the 2009 average of $7.35. Using that figure as the benchmark, then, here are the estimated admissions figures for Avatar's daily numbers:

Day Weekday Daily # Weekend # Weekly # Total #
1 Friday 2,702,232 2,702,232
2 Saturday 2,578,691 5,280,923
3 Sunday 2,499,429 7,780,352 7,780,352
4 Monday 1,655,133 9,435,485
5 Tuesday 1,624,895 11,060,380
6 Wednesday 1,661,141 12,721,521
7 Thursday 1,126,363 13,847,884 13,847,884
8 Friday 2,332,833 16,180,717
9 Saturday 2,856,001 19,036,717
10 Sunday 2,449,261 7,638,094 21,485,978
11 Monday 1,961,428 23,447,406
12 Tuesday 1,847,538 25,294,945
13 Wednesday 1,865,265 27,160,209
14 Thursday 1,488,701 14,801,026 28,648,910
15 Friday 2,552,930 31,201,840
16 Saturday 2,609,652 33,811,492
17 Sunday 1,755,670 6,918,251 35,567,161
18 Monday 817,632 36,384,793
19 Tuesday 740,125 37,124,918
20 Wednesday 697,896 37,822,813
21 Thursday 615,601 9,789,504 38,438,414
22 Friday 1,341,480 39,779,894
23 Saturday 2,148,438 41,928,332
24 Sunday 1,591,518 5,081,436 43,519,850
25 Monday 516,282 44,036,132
26 Tuesday 511,791 44,547,923
27 Wednesday 479,168 45,027,091
28 Thursday 474,626 7,063,304 45,501,718
29 Friday 1,049,926 46,551,643
30 Saturday 1,742,839 48,294,483
31 Sunday 1,529,014 4,321,779 49,823,497
32 Monday 1,173,317 50,996,813
33 Tuesday 423,328 51,420,141
34 Wednesday 383,112 51,803,253
35 Thursday 398,506 6,700,042 52,201,759
36 Friday 911,969 53,113,728
37 Saturday 1,649,096 54,762,824
38 Sunday 968,640 3,529,705 55,731,465
39 Monday 327,292 56,058,757
40 Tuesday 323,035 56,381,792

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

AVATAR vs. TITANIC International Market Shares

Avatar surpassed Titanic's international gross over the weekend, thus claiming one of Titanic's three big records. Avatar has made $1,287,060,822 internationally thus far, roughly $50m more than Titanic's once insurmountable $1,248,025,607. Sometime on Monday, Avatar claimed the ultimate, worldwide record by surpassing Titanic's global total of $1.848B. The domestic record is several days away from being surpassed, but it is an inevitability.


I have run out of words to describe Avatar's worldwide performance. It is, now, quite literally incomparable. I don't expect Avatar to hold the international record for as long as Titanic did, but its final tally, which will probably be around $1.8B or so, will be extremely difficult to match anytime soon.

I think it is useful to look at the market share for each film, and how much the major territories contributed to the grosses for both films.


Two things stick out:

1) Both Avatar and Titanic did exceptionally well in every market. Consistency is one of the key features of both films' successes.

2) Whereas Japan was the main market for Titanic, it is clear that for Avatar, the newer markets (China, Russia, and South Korea) have made the big difference and pushed the film over the top. In a way, the differences between the two films reflect the changes in the global economic structure. China recently surpassed Japan as the second largest economy in the world, and the economies of Russia and other emerging markets have grown by a disproportionately larger market. China is on track to surpass France as Avatar's largest market.



Friday, January 22, 2010

Avatar Vs. The Dark Knight Vs. Titanic Daily Gross

As with the weekly figures, what is remarkable here is Avatar's consistency, which contrasts starkly with The Dark Knight's (still great) holds and holds up well in comparison with Titanic's.

Day Avatar The Dark Knight Titanic
1 $26,752,099 $67,165,092 $8,658,814
2 $25,529,036 -4.57% $47,650,240 -29.06% $10,672,013 23.25%
3 $24,744,346 -3.07% $43,596,151 -8.51% $9,307,304 -12.79%
4 $16,385,820 -33.78% $24,493,313 -43.82% $5,578,212 -40.07%
5 $16,086,461 -1.83% $20,868,722 -14.80% $6,003,119 7.62%
6 $16,445,291 2.23% $18,377,288 -11.94% $3,571,345 -40.51%
7 $11,150,998 -32.19% $16,464,405 -10.41% $9,178,529 157.00%
8 $23,095,046 107.11% $23,232,292 41.11% $12,122,298 32.07%
9 $28,274,406 22.43% $28,272,494 21.69% $12,466,455 2.84%
10 $24,247,681 -14.24% $23,661,680 -16.31% $10,866,920 -12.83%
11 $19,418,139 -19.92% $10,518,116 -55.55% $7,942,520 -26.91%
12 $18,290,628 -5.81% $9,629,366 -8.45% $8,012,909 0.89%
13 $18,466,123 0.96% $8,755,141 -9.08% $8,213,735 2.51%
14 $14,738,136 -20.19% $8,402,546 -4.03% $11,558,520 40.72%
15 $25,274,008 71.49% $12,709,035 51.25% $11,698,861 1.21%
16 $25,835,551 2.22% $17,191,150 35.27% $12,726,625 8.79%
17 $17,381,129 -32.72% $12,764,034 -25.75% $8,889,792 -30.15%
18 $8,094,554 -53.43% $6,287,429 -50.74% $3,022,271 -66.00%
19 $7,327,233 -9.48% $5,661,240 -9.96% $3,044,822 0.75%
20 $6,909,167 -5.71% $5,077,367 -10.31% $2,841,351 -6.68%
21 $6,094,445 -11.79% $4,734,366 -6.76% $2,789,088 -1.84%
22 $13,280,653 117.91% $7,577,362 60.05% $7,738,150 177.44%
23 $21,269,537 60.15% $10,502,243 38.60% $12,758,118 64.87%
24 $15,756,027 -25.92% $8,037,425 -23.47% $8,220,042 -35.57%
25 $5,111,193 -67.56% $3,742,198 -53.44% $2,170,146 -73.60%
26 $5,066,734 -0.87% $3,515,389 -6.06% $2,386,164 9.95%
27 $4,743,762 -6.37% $3,002,302 -14.60% $2,095,782 -12.17%
28 $4,698,802 -0.95% $2,814,471 -6.26% $2,200,465 4.99%
29 $10,394,264 121.21% $4,937,955 75.45% $7,418,385 237.13%
30 $17,254,108 66.00% $6,708,833 35.86% $12,357,344 66.58%
31 $15,137,240 -12.27% $4,732,505 -29.46% $10,235,305 -17.17%
32 $11,615,834 -23.26% $2,112,206 -55.37% $6,003,510 -41.35%
33 $4,190,947 -63.92% $2,148,332 1.71% $2,322,334 -61.32%
34 $3,792,807 -9.50% $1,805,312 -15.97% $2,076,976 -10.57%
35 $3,945,213 4.02% $1,726,461 -4.37% $2,212,942 6.55%




As you can see, Avatar has been well ahead of Titanic since the start, and its consistency has allowed it to outpace The Dark Knight convincingly.

Avatar Vs. The Dark Knight Vs. Titanic Weekly Gross

As Avatar enters its 6th week, during which it will surpass The Dark Knight and inch closer to Titanic, I think it's useful to look back on its performance in comparison to those two films during the first 5 weeks.


First off, in terms of weekly grosses, what is remarkable is just how consistent Avatar's grosses have been. It has surged far, far ahead of The Dark Knight and remains well ahead of Titanic.


Avatar The Dark Knight Titanic
Week 1 $137,094,051 $238,615,211 $52,969,336
Week 2 $146,530,159 6.88% $112,471,635 -52.86% $71,183,357 34.39%
Week 3 $96,916,087 -33.86% $64,424,621 -42.72% $45,012,810 -36.76%
Week 4 $69,926,708 -27.85% $39,191,390 -39.17% $37,568,867 -16.54%
Week 5 $66,330,413 -5.14% $24,171,604 -38.32% $42,626,796 13.46%


Thursday, January 14, 2010

Avatar: International Market Shares Graph

This is a pie graph to accompany the chart in the post below, showing each major market's share of the total international gross for Avatar. Click on graph to enlarge.

AVATAR: International Market Totals As Of Jan. 13th

Yet another amazing round of updates, with continued massive numbers for Avatar. The source for these, btw, is The Numbers. To explain the three % columns: % Intl. is the territory's share of the gross outside North America; % Vs. N. Am. compares the territory's gross to North America's tally, and % Worldwide gives the territories share of the worldwide total of $1.4B.


Note the amazing number for China, where the film has been out for barely a week.

Totals Predictions as of now: North America $650m, International $1,500m, Worldwide Total: $2,150m.

Territory Total (Jan 13th.) % Intl. % Vs. N.Am. % Worldwide
France $104,730,110 10.70% 23.49% 7.35%
Russia $81,882,056 8.37% 18.37% 5.75%
Germany $76,362,821 7.80% 17.13% 5.36%
United Kingdom $70,514,598 7.21% 15.82% 4.95%
South Korea $63,542,307 6.49% 14.25% 4.46%
Australia $62,441,661 6.38% 14.01% 4.38%
Spain $62,084,279 6.35% 13.93% 4.36%
Japan $58,592,306 5.99% 13.14% 4.11%
China $54,593,126 5.58% 12.25% 3.83%
Brazil $30,099,345 3.08% 6.75% 2.11%
Mexico $29,848,626 3.05% 6.70% 2.10%
India $18,614,051 1.90% 4.18% 1.31%
Taiwan $17,355,525 1.77% 3.89% 1.22%
Hong Kong $13,541,197 1.38% 3.04% 0.95%
Poland $13,292,831 1.36% 2.98% 0.93%
Sweden $12,989,642 1.33% 2.91% 0.91%
Holland $12,500,963 1.28% 2.80% 0.88%
Denmark $12,028,262 1.23% 2.70% 0.84%
Switzerland $9,894,962 1.01% 2.22% 0.69%
Greece $9,713,372 0.99% 2.18% 0.68%
Austria $9,248,404 0.95% 2.07% 0.65%
Turkey $9,180,049 0.94% 2.06% 0.64%
Belgium $8,577,248 0.88% 1.92% 0.60%
Norway $7,779,943 0.80% 1.75% 0.55%
Colombia $7,188,193 0.73% 1.61% 0.50%
Czech Republic/Slovakia $7,119,650 0.73% 1.60% 0.50%
Thailand $6,979,321 0.71% 1.57% 0.49%
New Zealand $6,742,268 0.69% 1.51% 0.47%
Singapore $6,631,485 0.68% 1.49% 0.47%
Venezuela $6,279,475 0.64% 1.41% 0.44%
Portugal $5,930,818 0.61% 1.33% 0.42%
Chile $5,922,798 0.61% 1.33% 0.42%
Malaysia $5,712,082 0.58% 1.28% 0.40%
Ukraine $5,193,366 0.53% 1.17% 0.36%
Indonesia $4,998,355 0.51% 1.12% 0.35%
Hungary $4,479,712 0.46% 1.00% 0.31%
Israel $4,410,319 0.45% 0.99% 0.31%
Puerto Rico $4,271,390 0.44% 0.96% 0.30%
United Arab Emirates $4,201,534 0.43% 0.94% 0.30%
Philippines $3,798,916 0.39% 0.85% 0.27%
South Africa $3,725,200 0.38% 0.84% 0.26%
Argentina $3,619,706 0.37% 0.81% 0.25%
Central America $3,604,153 0.37% 0.81% 0.25%
Finland $3,524,180 0.36% 0.79% 0.25%
Romania $3,293,185 0.34% 0.74% 0.23%
Peru $3,232,497 0.33% 0.73% 0.23%
Bulgaria $2,433,922 0.25% 0.55% 0.17%
Ecuador $1,747,627 0.18% 0.39% 0.12%
Slovenia $1,201,016 0.12% 0.27% 0.08%
Dominican Republic $919,555 0.09% 0.21% 0.06%
Croatia $890,576 0.09% 0.20% 0.06%
Bolivia $885,828 0.09% 0.20% 0.06%
Viet Nam $835,523 0.09% 0.19% 0.06%
Egypt $832,927 0.09% 0.19% 0.06%
Lithuania $760,484 0.08% 0.17% 0.05%
Latvia $760,039 0.08% 0.17% 0.05%
Iceland $752,512 0.08% 0.17% 0.05%
Kuwait $743,102 0.08% 0.17% 0.05%
Lebanon $731,664 0.07% 0.16% 0.05%
Estonia $688,483 0.07% 0.15% 0.05%
East & West Africa $637,022 0.07% 0.14% 0.04%
Serbia/Montenegro $564,143 0.06% 0.13% 0.04%
Qatar $537,747 0.05% 0.12% 0.04%
Uruguay $502,606 0.05% 0.11% 0.04%
Trinidad $450,684 0.05% 0.10% 0.03%
Jordan $408,413 0.04% 0.09% 0.03%
Jamaica $389,816 0.04% 0.09% 0.03%
Bahrain $298,982 0.03% 0.07% 0.02%
Oman $133,326 0.01% 0.03% 0.01%
Syria $81,779 0.01% 0.02% 0.01%
International Total $978,454,063 100.00% 219.50% 68.70%
North American Total $445,768,203 N/A 100.00% 31.30%
Worldwide Total $1,424,222,266 N/A 319.50% 100.00%

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

AVATAR: Global Markets Share

This is in line with the previous chart/post regarding Avatar's global performance. France, Russia, Spain, and Australia are the big stories thus far, but China's incredible opening week figures suggest that it will end up as either the largest or second largest market for Avatar outside the United States (see xiayun's website for more information).


The 68% overseas share of Avatar's total underscores just how important the international markets have been to the film's overall success. Expect that share to increase as China adds to the film's overseas total and Italy finally enters the picture this upcoming weekend.


Country Total USD Share
United States $388,448,000 28.86%
France $101,393,223 7.53%
Russia $78,422,271 5.83%
Germany $73,381,489 5.45%
United Kingdom $67,063,506 4.98%
Spain $60,112,290 4.47%
Australia $57,860,731 4.30%
South Korea $54,688,982 4.06%
Japan $50,760,456 3.77%
Canada $42,399,000 3.15%
China $41,417,617 3.08%
Mexico $28,442,031 2.11%
Brazil $28,224,642 2.10%
India $17,821,955 1.32%
Taiwan $16,356,079 1.22%
Hong Kong $13,117,211 0.97%
Sweden $12,400,165 0.92%
Netherlands $12,203,351 0.91%
Denmark $11,264,712 0.84%
Poland $9,703,779 0.72%
Switzerland $9,673,584 0.72%
Greece $9,427,868 0.70%
Austria $9,002,969 0.67%
Turkey $8,969,218 0.67%
Belgium and Luxembourg $8,299,289 0.62%
Norway $7,338,314 0.55%
Czech Republic/Slovakia $6,853,665 0.51%
Thailand $6,817,339 0.51%
Singapore $6,527,894 0.49%
New Zealand and Fiji $6,367,232 0.47%
Colombia $6,323,720 0.47%
Venezuela $5,822,558 0.43%
Chile $5,750,928 0.43%
Portugal $5,731,447 0.43%
Malaysia $5,597,453 0.42%
Ukraine $4,889,781 0.36%
Indonesia $4,875,577 0.36%
Hungary $4,365,928 0.32%
Israel $4,097,592 0.30%
United Arab Emirates $4,005,811 0.30%
Argentina $3,601,061 0.27%
Philippines $3,571,925 0.27%
Finland $3,385,137 0.25%
Peru $3,134,002 0.23%
Romania $3,091,215 0.23%
Bulgaria $2,302,054 0.17%
Ecuador $1,501,310 0.11%
Slovenia $1,166,232 0.09%
Dominican Republic $735,558 0.05%
Bolivia $723,272 0.05%
Vietnam $719,740 0.05%
Croatia $684,386 0.05%
Latvia $630,225 0.05%
Egypt $627,502 0.05%
Lithuania $597,371 0.04%
Iceland $590,719 0.04%
Kuwait $581,972 0.04%
Lebanon $558,067 0.04%
Estonia $541,648 0.04%
Serbia and Montenegro $439,813 0.03%
Trinidad & Tobago $388,115 0.03%
Uruguay $377,533 0.03%
Qatar $367,017 0.03%
Jamaica $341,385 0.03%
Jordan $302,035 0.02%
Bahrain $223,847 0.02%
Oman $118,158 0.01%
Syria $61,893 0.00%
INTERNATIONAL TOTAL $915,100,000 67.99%
WORLDWIDE TOTAL $1,345,947,000 100.00%

AVATAR's Worldwide Performance: Per Capita

I used several sources to come up with this chart. First, BOM's Global breakdown of Avatar's numbers (here), which is frankly questionable. I included grosses for 2 territories, but excluded regional data. For Russia, I used Russia's population only, not that of the CIS, since Russia accounts for slightly less than half of the total CIS population but the overwhelming majority of Avatar's regional gross (if that number is for all of the CIS, at all). Most figures are for Jan. 10th, 2010.


For population numbers, I used Wikipedia, which ranks the countries using data from the UN (estimates from July 1st, 2009).

I broke down North America into the US and Canada. Tribute.ca (here) gives Avatar's Canadian total as $43.71m Canadian, which translates, using a 0.97 exchange rate, to around $42.4m. I subtracted that number from Avatar's $430.85m North American total to get a figure for the US market alone ($388.45m).

Take all of this with a grain of salt. There are so many variables at play here, it's useless to read anything much into all of this, beyond a few basic points, the main one being the fact that Avatar is performing exceptionally strong in Australia, France, and Spain. But we already knew that. :-)


Country Per Capita Gross Total USD Population
Australia $2.6165 $57,860,731 22,114,000
Denmark $2.0361 $11,264,712 5,532,531
Hong Kong $1.8715 $13,117,211 7,008,900
Iceland $1.8600 $590,719 317,593
France $1.5581 $101,393,223 65,073,482
Norway $1.5119 $7,338,314 4,853,800
Sweden $1.3288 $12,400,165 9,331,523
Singapore $1.3088 $6,527,894 4,987,600
Spain $1.3077 $60,112,290 45,967,632
United States $1.2597 $388,448,000 308,354,000
Canada $1.2483 $42,399,000 33,965,000
Switzerland $1.2447 $9,673,584 7,771,600
New Zealand and Fiji $1.2247 $6,367,232 5,199,100
South Korea $1.1315 $54,688,982 48,333,000
United Kingdom $1.0809 $67,063,506 62,041,708
Austria $1.0752 $9,002,969 8,372,930
Germany $0.8962 $73,381,489 81,882,342
United Arab Emirates $0.8710 $4,005,811 4,599,000
Greece $0.8339 $9,427,868 11,306,183
Netherlands $0.7359 $12,203,351 16,581,900
Belgium and Luxembourg $0.7325 $8,299,289 11,329,726
Taiwan $0.7090 $16,356,079 23,069,345
Finland $0.6323 $3,385,137 5,353,600
Slovenia $0.5684 $1,166,232 2,051,770
Russia $0.5526 $78,422,271 141,915,979
Israel $0.5457 $4,097,592 7,509,000
Portugal $0.5388 $5,731,447 10,636,888
Hungary $0.4360 $4,365,928 10,013,628
Czech Republic/Slovakia $0.4301 $6,853,665 15,934,334
Estonia $0.4041 $541,648 1,340,415
Japan $0.3980 $50,760,456 127,530,000
Chile $0.3379 $5,750,928 17,018,000
Bulgaria $0.3038 $2,302,054 7,576,751
Trinidad & Tobago $0.2899 $388,115 1,339,000
Bahrain $0.2830 $223,847 791,000
Latvia $0.2801 $630,225 2,249,700
Mexico $0.2645 $28,442,031 107,550,697
Qatar $0.2605 $367,017 1,409,000
Poland $0.2547 $9,703,779 38,100,700
Venezuela $0.2034 $5,822,558 28,623,000
Malaysia $0.1977 $5,597,453 28,306,700
Kuwait $0.1950 $581,972 2,985,000
Lithuania $0.1794 $597,371 3,329,227
Croatia $0.1543 $684,386 4,435,056
Brazil $0.1468 $28,224,642 192,325,000
Romania $0.1440 $3,091,215 21,466,174
Colombia $0.1397 $6,323,720 45,263,000
Lebanon $0.1321 $558,067 4,224,000
Jamaica $0.1256 $341,385 2,719,000
Turkey $0.1254 $8,969,218 71,517,100
Uruguay $0.1123 $377,533 3,361,000
Peru $0.1076 $3,134,002 29,132,013
Thailand $0.1075 $6,817,339 63,389,730
Ecuador $0.1064 $1,501,310 14,111,000
Ukraine $0.1063 $4,889,781 46,011,345
Argentina $0.0897 $3,601,061 40,134,425
Bolivia $0.0732 $723,272 9,879,000
Dominican Republic $0.0729 $735,558 10,090,000
Jordan $0.0478 $302,035 6,316,000
Serbia and Montenegro $0.0420 $439,813 10,474,000
Oman $0.0415 $118,158 2,845,000
Philippines $0.0387 $3,571,925 92,226,600
China $0.0310 $41,417,617 1,335,230,000
Indonesia $0.0211 $4,875,577 231,369,500
India $0.0152 $17,821,955 1,175,500,000
Vietnam $0.0084 $719,740 85,789,573
Egypt $0.0081 $627,502 77,724,000
Syria $0.0028 $61,893 21,906,000

Biggest Fourth Mondays

This is not a complete list, but I do believe that Avatar now has the fifth largest 4th Monday and the largest non-holiday Monday. Narnia's 4th Monday fell on Jan. 2nd, and was therefore inflated by the Winter holidays; Spider-Man's and Iron Man's 4th Mondays fell on Memorial Day, while Jurassic Park's fell on July 5th, 1993, a day after Independence Day.


Avatar's number is very strong, particularly given that it's in the middle of January, which tends to be a terrible period for weekdays. Its fifth Monday will be a holiday, so expect a new record and an increase from this week's tally.

Title Gross Count Avg.
The Chronicles of Narnia: TLWW $8,025,469 3,853 $2,083
Spider-Man $7,306,740 3,876 $1,885
Jurassic Park $6,327,360 2,496 $2,535
Iron Man $5,663,877 3,915 $1,447
Avatar $5,111,193 3,422 $1,494
Black Hawk Down $5,016,000 3,101 $1,618
Night at the Museum $4,685,510 3,612 $1,297
Ocean's Eleven $4,413,000 3,075 $1,435
Cars $4,356,729 3,706 $1,176
Mummy Returns, The $3,908,225 3,550 $1,101
Spider-Man 3 $3,776,825 3,723 $1,014
The Dark Knight $3,742,198 4,015 $932
Gladiator $3,634,125 3,188 $1,140
Blair Witch Project, The $3,443,381 2,142 $1,608
Freaky Friday $3,381,996 3,067 $1,103
Meet the Fockers $3,198,555 3,554 $900
Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me $3,096,652 3,091 $1,002
Star Wars: Phantom Menace $3,025,265 3,024 $1,000
Mummy, The $2,902,725 3,395 $855
Shrek 2 $2,877,887 3,843 $749
Cheaper by the Dozen $2,871,957 3,025 $949
POTC: The Curse of the Black Pearl $2,841,937 3,390 $838
XXX $2,802,693 3,536 $793
Up $2,790,206 3,832 $728
X2: X-Men United $2,738,716 3,067 $893
Finding Nemo $2,732,840 3,404 $803
POTC: Dead Man's Chest $2,603,407 3,834 $679
The Bucket List $2,585,476 2,915 $887
The Hangover $2,578,117 3,525 $731
Cast Away $2,531,447 3,048 $831
Memoirs of a Geisha $2,469,496 1,547 $1,596
S.W.A.T. $2,445,433 2,781 $879
Rush Hour 3 $2,265,000 3,008 $753
Titanic $2,170,146 2,746 $790
Wedding Crashers $2,165,000 3,106 $697
Spy Kids 2: The Island of Lost Dreams $2,164,717 3,250 $666
Mr. & Mrs. Smith $2,150,975 2,985 $721
Chicago $2,141,927 557 $3,845
The Holiday $2,119,510 2,698 $786
Sixth Sense, The $2,063,543 2,763 $747
Vertical Limit $2,044,810 2,456 $833
American Pie 2 $2,024,100 3,115 $650
The Others $2,011,100 2,716 $740

Monday, January 11, 2010

Speculative Admissions and Adjusted Figures for 4th Weekend

These are, as the title of this post suggest, entirely speculative numbers, and should not be taken too seriously beyond a general point. The main point to take from all this is that 1) Avatar's fourth weekend is impressive even when inflation is taken into consideration (I assigned Avatar a higher ticket price and therefore lower admissions figure due to 3D/IMAX), and 2) Titanic is much closer to Avatar admissions wise than it might appear initially. I suspect that Titanic's average ticket price was probably less than half of what it is for Avatar.


NOTE: These are NOT ranked or exhaustive lists, merely a sample of films in their 4th weekends.

Title Adj. # Count Avg.
Avatar $50,687,825 2,746 $18,459
Titanic $45,921,604 3,422 $13,420
Star Wars: Episode I - TPM $37,843,791 3,024 $12,514
Spider-Man $36,800,478 3,876 $9,494
Jurassic Park $34,365,225 2,496 $13,768
Forrest Gump $32,655,962 2,117 $15,426
Monsters, Inc. $31,875,001 3,649 $8,735
The Lion King $30,298,249 2,624 $11,547
The Chronicles of Narnia $30,054,472 3,853 $7,800
The Sixth Sense $29,673,940 2,763 $10,740
Twister $29,037,056 2,808 $10,341
Batman $28,553,681 2,201 $12,973
The Incredibles $28,478,598 3,453 $8,247
Shrek 2 $28,160,531 3,843 $7,328
The Dark Knight $27,281,020 4,025 $6,778
Elf $26,927,664 3,202 $8,410
Finding Nemo $26,291,980 3,404 $7,724
How the Grinch Stole Christmas $25,945,993 3,182 $8,154
Up $23,972,119 3,832 $6,256
POTC: Dead Man's Chest $23,595,318 3,834 $6,154
The Passion of the Christ $23,447,315 3,250 $7,215
POTC: The Curse of the Black Pearl $23,437,866 3,390 $6,914
Meet the Fockers $22,600,735 3,554 $6,359
Ocean's Eleven $22,404,215 3,075 $7,286
Shrek $21,890,528 3,715 $5,892
Iron Man $21,358,551 3,915 $5,456
Meet the Parents $20,939,436 2,647 $7,911
LOTR: The Fellowship of the Ring $20,913,847 3,381 $6,186
What Women Want $20,611,793 3,052 $6,754
The Mummy Returns $20,056,246 3,553 $5,645
The Ring $20,018,677 2,927 $6,839
A Beautiful Mind $19,648,070 2,222 $8,843
Wedding Crashers $18,761,908 3,106 $6,041
Night at the Museum $18,708,965 3,612 $5,180
Spider-Man 2 $18,135,111 3,753 $4,832


Title Est. Adm. Count Avg.
Titanic 6,122,881 2,746 2,230
Avatar 5,918,378 3,422 1,730
Star Wars: Episode I - TPM 5,045,839 3,024 1,669
Spider-Man 4,906,730 3,876 1,266
Jurassic Park 4,582,030 2,496 1,836
Forrest Gump 4,354,128 2,117 2,057
Monsters, Inc. 4,250,000 3,649 1,165
The Lion King 4,039,767 2,624 1,540
The Chronicles of Narnia 4,007,263 3,853 1,040
The Sixth Sense 3,956,525 2,763 1,432
Twister 3,871,607 2,808 1,379
Batman 3,807,157 2,201 1,730
The Incredibles 3,797,146 3,453 1,100
Shrek 2 3,754,738 3,843 977
The Dark Knight 3,637,469 4,025 904
Elf 3,590,355 3,202 1,121
Finding Nemo 3,505,597 3,404 1,030
How the Grinch Stole Christmas 3,459,466 3,182 1,087
Up 3,196,283 3,832 834
POTC: Dead Man's Chest 3,146,042 3,834 821
The Passion of the Christ 3,126,309 3,250 962
POTC: The Curse of the Black Pearl 3,125,049 3,390 922
Meet the Fockers 3,013,431 3,554 848
Ocean's Eleven 2,987,229 3,075 971
Shrek 2,918,737 3,715 786
Iron Man 2,847,807 3,915 727
Meet the Parents 2,791,925 2,647 1,055
LOTR: The Fellowship of the Ring 2,788,513 3,381 825
What Women Want 2,748,239 3,052 900
The Mummy Returns 2,674,166 3,553 753
The Ring 2,669,157 2,927 912
A Beautiful Mind 2,619,743 2,222 1,179
Wedding Crashers 2,501,588 3,106 805
Night at the Museum 2,494,529 3,612 691
Spider-Man 2 2,418,015 3,753 644
The Hangover 2,315,941 3,525 657
Shrek the Third 2,226,397 3,925 567
I Am Legend 2,189,061 3,648 600
Alvin and the Chipmunks 2,165,198 3,462 625
A Christmas Carol (2009) 2,143,983 3,013 712
The Blind Side 2,048,334 3,388 605