The Road to #1: An Avatar Box Office Chronology

The following two charts essentially track Avatar's progress up the box office chart, as it was surpassing various films on its way to the #1 spot domestically. As you can see, the brisk pace of the film up the charts is quite amazing. It took the film only ten days after it passed The Dark Knight to surpass Titanic's all time record.

Avatar Weekend Records: 2nd to 7th Weekends

In my opinion, the most impressive aspect of Avatar's run domestically and internationally has been its amazing legs; the film has held up incredibly well weekend to weekend, and in fact now holds the biggest second to seventh weekends. Also incredible: the difference between its new records and the previous ones. The film has been ahead of the other films, mostly Titanic, by very wide margins. The film will have enough to steam to get the 8th weekend record as well next week, but the 9th weekend record, which is held by Titanic with $28m, looks to be finally too insurmountable for Avatar. Overall, however, a truly historic streak of records.

	Second Weekend	Gross	Count	Avg.
1	Avatar	$75,617,183	3,456	$21,880	Diff. #1&2	$450,717
2	The Dark Knight	$75,166,466	4,366	$17,216	% Diff.	0.60%
3	Shrek 2	$72,170,363	4,223	$17,089
4	Spider-Man	$71,417,527	3,615	$19,755
5	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	$62,345,264	4,133	$15,084
	Third Weekend	Gross	Count	Avg.
1	Avatar	$68,490,688	3,461	$19,789	Diff. #1&2	$23,453,776
2	Spider-Man	$45,036,912	3,615	$12,458	% Diff.	52.08%
3	The Dark Knight	$42,664,219	4,266	$10,001
4	Shrek 2	$37,931,716	4,131	$9,182
5	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	$35,215,201	4,133	$8,520
	Fourth Weekend	Gross	Count	Avg.
1	Avatar	$50,306,217	3,422	$14,701	Diff. #1&2	$21,589,907
2	Titanic	$28,716,310	2,746	$10,458	% Diff.	75.18%
3	Spider-Man	$28,508,104	3,876	$7,355
4	The Dark Knight	$26,117,030	4,025	$6,489
5	The Chronicles of Narnia 1	$25,686,555	3,853	$6,666
	Fifth Weekend	Gross	Count	Avg.
1	Avatar	$42,785,612	3,285	$13,025	Diff. #1&2	$12,774,578
2	Titanic	$30,011,034	2,767	$10,846	% Diff.	42.57%
3	The Sixth Sense	$22,896,967	2,775	$8,251
4	Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace	$18,859,021	3,019	$6,246
5	The Dark Knight	$16,379,293	3,590	$4,562
	Sixth Weekend	Gross	Count	Avg.
1	Avatar	$34,944,081	3,141	$11,125	Diff. #1&2	$9,705,361
2	Titanic	$25,238,720	2,771	$9,108	% Diff.	38.45%
3	The Sixth Sense	$16,511,464	2,782	$5,935
4	Mrs. Doubtfire	$16,346,568	2,325	$7,030
5	Aladdin	$15,642,073	2,255	$6,936
	Seventh Weekend	Gross	Count	Avg.
1	Avatar	$31,280,029	3,074	$10,176	Diff. #1&2	$5,372,857
2	Titanic	$25,907,172	2,853	$9,081	% Diff.	20.74%
3	The Passion of the Christ	$15,216,723	3,240	$4,696
4	The Blind Side	$11,912,749	2,926	$4,071
5	Mrs. Doubtfire	$11,536,024	2,345	$4,919

Here's a graph comparing Avatar's weekends grosses with those of either the top films or the previous record holders. Avatar corresponds to the black line; the other reflects The Dark Knight's opening weekend record, Spider-Man 1's previous third weekend record, and for the rest, Titanic's previous 4th to 7th weekend records.

Avatar: International Market Shares

This is a ranking of Avatar's markets and the share of the film's total that they account for. France's share, of course, is amazing, as is Australia's and that of many other territories. Avatar's total is spread out generously across many territories. In other words, it's doing great everywhere.

Country/Territory	Share	Total Gross
United States of America	26.974%	$495,990,100
France	6.789%	$124,843,250
China	5.608%	$103,113,774
Russia	5.235%	$96,259,863
Germany	5.211%	$95,811,129
United Kingdom and Ireland	5.068%	$93,186,189
South Korea	4.334%	$79,691,558
Japan	4.225%	$77,697,099
Australia	4.188%	$77,003,943
Spain	4.133%	$76,001,259
Canada	3.032%	$55,751,400
Brazil	2.107%	$38,740,895
Italy	2.039%	$37,486,649
Mexico	1.929%	$35,469,025
India	1.211%	$22,276,532
Taiwan	1.180%	$21,695,287
Hong Kong	0.913%	$16,779,658
Poland	0.895%	$16,453,985
Netherlands	0.883%	$16,240,875
Sweden	0.870%	$15,991,521
Denmark	0.866%	$15,917,610
Switzerland	0.707%	$12,999,706
Turkey	0.673%	$12,381,951
Greece	0.631%	$11,606,384
Austria	0.618%	$11,366,599
Belgium and Luxembourg	0.567%	$10,420,392
Norway	0.543%	$9,982,702
Colombia	0.510%	$9,374,152
Czech Republic/Slovakia	0.505%	$9,293,702
New Zealand and Fiji	0.481%	$8,836,171
Thailand	0.435%	$8,004,189
Venezuela	0.422%	$7,767,524
Chile	0.411%	$7,564,359
Portugal and Angola	0.403%	$7,407,474
Singapore	0.403%	$7,405,758
Argentina	0.394%	$7,238,075
Malaysia	0.348%	$6,407,423
Israel	0.342%	$6,288,772
Ukraine	0.323%	$5,942,885
Hungary	0.316%	$5,805,220
Indonesia	0.285%	$5,234,122
Philippines	0.283%	$5,197,803
United Arab Emirates	0.282%	$5,177,465
Romania	0.233%	$4,287,054
Finland	0.227%	$4,179,338
Peru	0.210%	$3,870,255
Bulgaria	0.164%	$3,024,267
Ecuador	0.109%	$1,996,001
Slovenia	0.076%	$1,391,581
Croatia	0.058%	$1,058,533
Dominican Republic	0.056%	$1,036,515
Bolivia	0.056%	$1,020,908
Egypt	0.054%	$989,389
Latvia	0.049%	$899,415
Lithuania	0.048%	$889,003
Lebanon	0.048%	$885,944
Kuwait	0.048%	$880,572
Iceland	0.047%	$865,636
Vietnam	0.045%	$835,523
Estonia	0.043%	$793,376
Serbia and Montenegro	0.038%	$702,398
Qatar	0.035%	$636,745
Uruguay	0.033%	$601,515
Jordan	0.028%	$513,589
Trinidad & Tobago	0.028%	$506,153
Jamaica	0.025%	$453,684
Bahrain	0.020%	$366,396
Oman	0.008%	$141,192
Syria	0.006%	$110,169
Nigeria	0.006%	$105,308
Ghana	0.001%	$22,231
WORLDWIDE		$1,838,802,321
NORTH AMERICA (US&CA)	30.005%	$551,741,499
INTERNATIONAL	69.995%	$1,287,060,822

Avatar Vs. The Dark Knight Vs. Titanic Daily Gross

As with the weekly figures, what is remarkable here is Avatar's consistency, which contrasts starkly with The Dark Knight's (still great) holds and holds up well in comparison with Titanic's.

Day	Avatar		The Dark Knight		Titanic
1	$26,752,099		$67,165,092		$8,658,814
2	$25,529,036	-4.57%	$47,650,240	-29.06%	$10,672,013	23.25%
3	$24,744,346	-3.07%	$43,596,151	-8.51%	$9,307,304	-12.79%
4	$16,385,820	-33.78%	$24,493,313	-43.82%	$5,578,212	-40.07%
5	$16,086,461	-1.83%	$20,868,722	-14.80%	$6,003,119	7.62%
6	$16,445,291	2.23%	$18,377,288	-11.94%	$3,571,345	-40.51%
7	$11,150,998	-32.19%	$16,464,405	-10.41%	$9,178,529	157.00%
8	$23,095,046	107.11%	$23,232,292	41.11%	$12,122,298	32.07%
9	$28,274,406	22.43%	$28,272,494	21.69%	$12,466,455	2.84%
10	$24,247,681	-14.24%	$23,661,680	-16.31%	$10,866,920	-12.83%
11	$19,418,139	-19.92%	$10,518,116	-55.55%	$7,942,520	-26.91%
12	$18,290,628	-5.81%	$9,629,366	-8.45%	$8,012,909	0.89%
13	$18,466,123	0.96%	$8,755,141	-9.08%	$8,213,735	2.51%
14	$14,738,136	-20.19%	$8,402,546	-4.03%	$11,558,520	40.72%
15	$25,274,008	71.49%	$12,709,035	51.25%	$11,698,861	1.21%
16	$25,835,551	2.22%	$17,191,150	35.27%	$12,726,625	8.79%
17	$17,381,129	-32.72%	$12,764,034	-25.75%	$8,889,792	-30.15%
18	$8,094,554	-53.43%	$6,287,429	-50.74%	$3,022,271	-66.00%
19	$7,327,233	-9.48%	$5,661,240	-9.96%	$3,044,822	0.75%
20	$6,909,167	-5.71%	$5,077,367	-10.31%	$2,841,351	-6.68%
21	$6,094,445	-11.79%	$4,734,366	-6.76%	$2,789,088	-1.84%
22	$13,280,653	117.91%	$7,577,362	60.05%	$7,738,150	177.44%
23	$21,269,537	60.15%	$10,502,243	38.60%	$12,758,118	64.87%
24	$15,756,027	-25.92%	$8,037,425	-23.47%	$8,220,042	-35.57%
25	$5,111,193	-67.56%	$3,742,198	-53.44%	$2,170,146	-73.60%
26	$5,066,734	-0.87%	$3,515,389	-6.06%	$2,386,164	9.95%
27	$4,743,762	-6.37%	$3,002,302	-14.60%	$2,095,782	-12.17%
28	$4,698,802	-0.95%	$2,814,471	-6.26%	$2,200,465	4.99%
29	$10,394,264	121.21%	$4,937,955	75.45%	$7,418,385	237.13%
30	$17,254,108	66.00%	$6,708,833	35.86%	$12,357,344	66.58%
31	$15,137,240	-12.27%	$4,732,505	-29.46%	$10,235,305	-17.17%
32	$11,615,834	-23.26%	$2,112,206	-55.37%	$6,003,510	-41.35%
33	$4,190,947	-63.92%	$2,148,332	1.71%	$2,322,334	-61.32%
34	$3,792,807	-9.50%	$1,805,312	-15.97%	$2,076,976	-10.57%
35	$3,945,213	4.02%	$1,726,461	-4.37%	$2,212,942	6.55%

As you can see, Avatar has been well ahead of Titanic since the start, and its consistency has allowed it to outpace The Dark Knight convincingly.

Avatar Vs. The Dark Knight Vs. Titanic Weekly Gross

As Avatar enters its 6th week, during which it will surpass The Dark Knight and inch closer to Titanic, I think it's useful to look back on its performance in comparison to those two films during the first 5 weeks.

First off, in terms of weekly grosses, what is remarkable is just how consistent Avatar's grosses have been. It has surged far, far ahead of The Dark Knight and remains well ahead of Titanic.

	Avatar		The Dark Knight		Titanic
Week 1	$137,094,051		$238,615,211		$52,969,336
Week 2	$146,530,159	6.88%	$112,471,635	-52.86%	$71,183,357	34.39%
Week 3	$96,916,087	-33.86%	$64,424,621	-42.72%	$45,012,810	-36.76%
Week 4	$69,926,708	-27.85%	$39,191,390	-39.17%	$37,568,867	-16.54%
Week 5	$66,330,413	-5.14%	$24,171,604	-38.32%	$42,626,796	13.46%

Biggest Fourth Mondays

This is not a complete list, but I do believe that Avatar now has the fifth largest 4th Monday and the largest non-holiday Monday. Narnia's 4th Monday fell on Jan. 2nd, and was therefore inflated by the Winter holidays; Spider-Man's and Iron Man's 4th Mondays fell on Memorial Day, while Jurassic Park's fell on July 5th, 1993, a day after Independence Day.

Avatar's number is very strong, particularly given that it's in the middle of January, which tends to be a terrible period for weekdays. Its fifth Monday will be a holiday, so expect a new record and an increase from this week's tally.

Title	Gross	Count	Avg.
The Chronicles of Narnia: TLWW	$8,025,469	3,853	$2,083
Spider-Man	$7,306,740	3,876	$1,885
Jurassic Park	$6,327,360	2,496	$2,535
Iron Man	$5,663,877	3,915	$1,447
Avatar	$5,111,193	3,422	$1,494
Black Hawk Down	$5,016,000	3,101	$1,618
Night at the Museum	$4,685,510	3,612	$1,297
Ocean's Eleven	$4,413,000	3,075	$1,435
Cars	$4,356,729	3,706	$1,176
Mummy Returns, The	$3,908,225	3,550	$1,101
Spider-Man 3	$3,776,825	3,723	$1,014
The Dark Knight	$3,742,198	4,015	$932
Gladiator	$3,634,125	3,188	$1,140
Blair Witch Project, The	$3,443,381	2,142	$1,608
Freaky Friday	$3,381,996	3,067	$1,103
Meet the Fockers	$3,198,555	3,554	$900
Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me	$3,096,652	3,091	$1,002
Star Wars: Phantom Menace	$3,025,265	3,024	$1,000
Mummy, The	$2,902,725	3,395	$855
Shrek 2	$2,877,887	3,843	$749
Cheaper by the Dozen	$2,871,957	3,025	$949
POTC: The Curse of the Black Pearl	$2,841,937	3,390	$838
XXX	$2,802,693	3,536	$793
Up	$2,790,206	3,832	$728
X2: X-Men United	$2,738,716	3,067	$893
Finding Nemo	$2,732,840	3,404	$803
POTC: Dead Man's Chest	$2,603,407	3,834	$679
The Bucket List	$2,585,476	2,915	$887
The Hangover	$2,578,117	3,525	$731
Cast Away	$2,531,447	3,048	$831
Memoirs of a Geisha	$2,469,496	1,547	$1,596
S.W.A.T.	$2,445,433	2,781	$879
Rush Hour 3	$2,265,000	3,008	$753
Titanic	$2,170,146	2,746	$790
Wedding Crashers	$2,165,000	3,106	$697
Spy Kids 2: The Island of Lost Dreams	$2,164,717	3,250	$666
Mr. & Mrs. Smith	$2,150,975	2,985	$721
Chicago	$2,141,927	557	$3,845
The Holiday	$2,119,510	2,698	$786
Sixth Sense, The	$2,063,543	2,763	$747
Vertical Limit	$2,044,810	2,456	$833
American Pie 2	$2,024,100	3,115	$650
The Others	$2,011,100	2,716	$740

Biggest January Weekends

It's beginning to sound tiresome, but Avatar is having a truly historic run. One indicator is its dominance of the January charts. It has recorded by far the biggest weekend grosses ever in the month of January. Along with the second weekend figures for Sherlock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks, fully 4 of the top 10 January weekends were registered during the last two weekends. Avatar will undoubtedly contribute one and perhaps even two more $30m+ weekends to this chart.

Rank	Title	Gross	Count	Avg.	Wknd #
1	Avatar	$68,490,688	3,461	$19,789	3
2	Avatar	$50,306,217	3,422	$14,701	4
3	Cloverfield	$40,058,229	3,411	$11,744	1
4	Sherlock Holmes	$36,612,481	3,626	$10,097	2
5	Star Wars (Special Edition)	$35,906,661	2,104	$17,066	1
6	Alvin and the Chipmunks 2	$35,189,653	3,747	$9,391	2
7	Titanic	$33,315,278	2,727	$12,217	3
8	Paul Blart: Mall Cop	$31,832,636	3,144	$10,125	1
9	Titanic	$30,011,034	2,767	$10,846	5
10	Gran Torino	$29,484,388	2,808	$10,500	5
11	Titanic	$28,716,310	2,746	$10,458	4
12	Black Hawk Down	$28,611,736	3,101	$9,227	4
13	Meet the Fockers	$28,498,160	3,527	$8,080	3
14	LOTR: The Return of the King	$28,180,378	3,703	$7,610	3
15	Big Momma's House 2	$27,736,056	3,261	$8,505	1
16	Along Came Polly	$27,721,185	2,984	$9,290	1
17	Underworld: Evolution	$26,857,181	3,207	$8,375	1
18	Titanic	$25,907,172	2,853	$9,081	7
19	Titanic	$25,238,720	2,771	$9,108	6
20	LOTR: The Two Towers	$25,017,279	3,622	$6,907	3
21	Taken	$24,717,037	3,183	$7,765	1
22	Marley and Me	$24,263,763	3,505	$6,923	2
23	Coach Carter	$24,182,961	2,524	$9,581	1
24	White Noise	$24,113,565	2,261	$10,665	1
25	Night at the Museum	$23,743,960	3,730	$6,366	3
26	Save the Last Dance	$23,444,930	2,230	$10,513	1
27	27 Dresses	$23,007,725	3,057	$7,526	1
28	LOTR: The Fellowship of the Ring	$23,006,447	3,381	$6,805	3
29	Cast Away	$22,220,725	2,948	$7,538	3
30	Gran Torino	$21,979,069	2,972	$7,395	6
31	Hide and Seek	$21,959,233	3,005	$7,308	1
32	Stomp the Yard	$21,833,312	2,051	$10,645	1
33	Cheaper by the Dozen	$21,644,537	3,307	$6,545	2
34	Paul Blart: Mall Cop	$21,623,182	3,144	$6,878	2
35	My Bloody Valentine 3-D	$21,241,456	2,534	$8,383	1
36	Catch Me If You Can	$21,142,434	3,170	$6,670	2
37	Bride Wars	$21,058,173	3,226	$6,528	1
38	Underworld: Rise of the Lycans	$20,828,511	2,942	$7,080	1
39	Bedtime Stories	$20,501,339	3,684	$5,565	2
40	Notorious (2009)	$20,497,596	1,638	$12,514	1
41	National Treasure: Book of Secrets	$20,062,684	3,762	$5,333	3

Films With Most $20M+ Days

You can see my the relatively small number of films on this chart just how difficult it is for movies to have two or more $20m+ days, even with current inflationary forces at play at the box office. In general, films with 2 or 3 days above $20m tend to have large openings and precipitate drops, which is why they do not sustain such sums in subsequent weeks.

Films with 3 or more days above $20m tend to be 1) Thursday or Wednesday releases, 2) mid-week holiday releases, or 3) Memorial Day releases. Spider-Man 2, for example, was released on a Wednesday before the July 4h weekend, and managed to have 6 straight days of $20m+ grosses because its Monday fell on July 5th, giving it an added holiday boost.

Very rarely do films achieve $20m+ figures without holiday aid. There are three exceptions, in fact, and they are big ones:

-Spider-Man 1 opened with $114.8m in 2002, but remarkably, managed to have healthy drops subsequently. It had a $30.5m second Saturday (the only time a film has made more than $30m on a day after opening week) and a $21m second Sunday. Even more remarkably, it managed to register a $20m third Saturday, making it the only film to have a daily gross above $20m outside the first two weeks of release.

-Shrek 2 had a massive opening in 2004, and an even more impressive second weekend, which happened to fall during Memorial Day holidays. That allowed the film to add an additional 4 $20m+ days to its 3 opening weekend days, giving it a total of seven days, a previous record.

-The Dark Knight, which of course had a gargantuan opening weekend, had an even more impressive opening week. The film managed a jaw-dropping $24.5m on its first Monday without the aid of any holiday, and grossed another $20.9m on the following Tuesday. It registered another 3 $20m+ days during its sophomore session. Its total of 8 days above $20m is a stunning record, and a testament to the remarkable run it had, especially during its first few weeks.

$20m+ Days: Franchises & Brands

This chart counts entries for all franchises that had at least two films or more with $20m+ days. That excludes Jurassic Park, for example, because all 3 of its $20m+ days came from 1997's The Lost World.

If there is any doubt about Harry Potter's staying prowess, I think this dispels it. The films have had consistently large opening weekends, and several have had strong sophomore sessions. Expect the gulf between Potter and the other franchises to only widen with the release of the future films.

$20m+ Days By Studio

Just to explain the double rankings of WB and Paramount: DreamWorks has ceased to function as an independent studio and struck a deal with Paramount, so that many huge franchises, including the Shrek and Tranformers films, passed on to Paramount. The figure for DreamWorks covers that period during which it was independent of Paramount, and the same with Paramount's. The figure for Paramount (+DreamWorks) includes figures from DW after the coupling of the two studios. The same goes for WB and New Line.

Warner Bros. remains, either way, the leader by a huge margin, aided by Harry Potter and Batman. Fox has similarly benefitted from the Star Wars films.

$20m+ Days By Year

I think these figures, more than anything else, highlight just how much has changed in so short a time period. Ticket prices are only part of the reason. Changes in release patterns, a shorter release window due to the increasing DVD and home video market, greater competition for more theatre space, and a greater emphasis on sequels and franchise films-all those factors have contributed to bigger and bigger opening days. Curiously, it seems we have stalled in the last few years after the surge between 1999 and 2001. I also find it interesting that three years this decade havae had exactly 30 $20m+ days. 2008's tally is due to The Dark Knight, above all and everything, while 2007's and 2004's were aided by the Shrek and Spider-Man films.

In graph format:

All-Time Daily Figures: A Summary

Alright, so by way of a summary of the two large preceding charts, let's consider first the breakdown for days above $20m:

Almost half of figures above $20m are also below $25m, suggesting a considerable barrier in that range. I would argue that this is due to the bigger, $25m+ days pushing several other days up with them. Take a film, for example, that opens with $30m on Friday, declines 20% on Saturday to $24m, and another 15% on Sunday to $20.4m. That's two $20-25m days for one $30m opener.

Now let's look at inflation and how inflated figures compare to actuals:

The effect is immediately visible and quite drastic. The change at the top is not particularly striking, largely because those figures come from recent releases anyway. But even there, the fact that the number of $60m+ days doubles is considerable. More startling is the jump in the number of $45m+ days, from 10 to 21.

A Comparative Analysis of the Weekend Performances of the Major 2009 Releases

I know that the huge chart below is bewildering, so allow me to explain.

I have essentially offered up a comparative analysis of the first nine weekends (or less, where applicable) of all the 16 films that have grossed more than $100m this year and were released in January or after. Each film's weekend gross was compared to those of all other films and is given as a percentage.

So, for example, Up's first weekend gross corresponds to 62.5% of Transformers' opening weekend, its second weekend corresponds to 104.29% of Transformers' second weekend. What this means is that Up had so good a hold in its second weekend that it managed to surpass Transformers despite having an opening less than two-thirds that of Transformers'. The films grow wider apart during the third weekend: Up's third weekend is 127% of Transformers 2's (or, conversley, Transformers 2's was 78.71% of Up's).

The point is the essentially the same that I made yesterday, which is that we have had several films this year that have held up remarkably well weekend to weekend. Consider The Hangover, whose opening weekend was only 41.28% of Transformers 2. Its second weekend was 77.49%, and by the third weekend, it had shot past Transformers 2, by having a weekend gross 110.49% of T2's. By the sixth weekend, The Hangover had more than doubled T2's correpsonding weekend gross! As impressively, Paul Blart and Taken each opened with, resp., 29.21% and 22.68% of T2's gross. By the fifth weekend, both were ahead of T2, at 135.19% and 121.41%.

Such figures are, I think, very important to keep in mind when assessing the dynamics at play between various films. 2009 has been an extraordinary year, and we have to account for the relationship between the various films and their performances to gain a proper understanding of it.

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