Thursday, February 4, 2010

Opening Weekends: 4,000+ Theatres

Thus far, only 26 films have opened in 4,000+ theatres. Among those, only Over the Hedge had an opening below $40m and thus a per-theatre average below $10,000.


Some more interesting points:
-9 of the 26 releases have registered opening weekends above $100m.
-9 of the films are animated, all of them CGI
-18 of the films are franchise films: sequels, threequels, etc.
-6 of the films are superhero/comic book films
-4 of the films have an avg. of $30k+, 8 of $25k+, and 12 of $20k+

1 The Dark Knight $158,411,483 4,366 $36,283
2 Spider-Man 3 $151,116,516 4,252 $35,540
3 The Twilight Saga: New Moon $142,839,137 4,024 $35,497
4 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $135,634,554 4,133 $32,817
5 Shrek the Third $121,629,270 4,122 $29,507
6 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End $114,732,820 4,362 $26,302
7 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen $108,966,307 4,234 $25,736
8 Shrek 2 $108,037,878 4,163 $25,951
9 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $100,137,835 4,260 $23,507
10 Iron Man $98,618,668 4,105 $24,024
11 Spider-Man 2 $88,156,227 4,152 $21,232
12 X-Men Origins: Wolverine $85,058,003 4,099 $20,751
13 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $77,835,727 4,325 $17,997
14 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $77,108,414 4,285 $17,994
15 Transformers $70,502,384 4,011 $17,577
16 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa $63,106,589 4,056 $15,559
17 Kung Fu Panda $60,239,130 4,114 $14,642
18 Monsters Vs. Aliens $59,321,095 4,104 $14,454
19 G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra $54,713,046 4,007 $13,654
20 Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian $54,173,286 4,096 $13,226
21 Superman Returns $52,535,096 4,065 $12,923
22 Mission: Impossible III $47,743,273 4,054 $11,776
23 Shark Tale $47,604,606 4,016 $11,853
24 Madagascar $47,224,594 4,131 $11,431
25 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs $41,690,382 4,099 $10,171
26 Over the Hedge $38,457,003 4,059 $9,474


Est. admissions and adjusted for inflation, the grosses are as follows (est. avg. for 2010 $7.75):

# Film Est. Adm. Count Avg. Adjusted Adj. Avg.
1 The Dark Knight 22,062,881 4,366 5,053 $170,987,325 $39,163
2 Spider-Man 3 21,964,610 4,252 5,166 $170,225,727 $40,034
3 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest 20,707,565 4,133 5,010 $160,483,633 $38,830
4 The Twilight Saga: New Moon 19,433,896 4,024 4,829 $150,612,695 $37,429
5 Shrek the Third 17,678,673 4,122 4,289 $137,009,715 $33,239
6 Shrek 2 17,397,404 4,163 4,179 $134,829,880 $32,388
7 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End 16,676,282 4,362 3,823 $129,241,185 $29,629
8 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen 14,825,348 4,234 3,501 $114,896,446 $27,137
9 Spider-Man 2 14,195,850 4,152 3,419 $110,017,836 $26,498
10 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull 13,946,774 4,260 3,274 $108,087,496 $25,373
11 Iron Man 13,735,191 4,105 3,346 $106,447,727 $25,931
12 X-Men Origins: Wolverine 11,572,517 4,099 2,823 $89,687,010 $21,880
13 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 11,207,618 4,285 2,616 $86,859,042 $20,270
14 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince 10,589,895 4,325 2,449 $82,071,685 $18,976
15 Transformers 10,247,440 4,011 2,555 $79,417,656 $19,800
16 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa 8,789,219 4,056 2,167 $68,116,444 $16,794
17 Kung Fu Panda 8,389,851 4,114 2,039 $65,021,345 $15,805
18 Monsters Vs. Aliens 8,070,897 4,104 1,967 $62,549,454 $15,241
19 Superman Returns 8,020,625 4,065 1,973 $62,159,846 $15,291
20 Shark Tale 7,665,798 4,016 1,909 $59,409,935 $14,793
21 G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra 7,443,952 4,007 1,858 $57,690,627 $14,397
22 Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian 7,370,515 4,096 1,799 $57,121,492 $13,946
23 Madagascar 7,367,331 4,131 1,783 $57,096,818 $13,822
24 Mission: Impossible III 7,289,049 4,054 1,798 $56,490,132 $13,934
25 Over the Hedge 5,871,298 4,059 1,446 $45,502,561 $11,210
26 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs 5,672,161 4,099 1,384 $43,959,246 $10,724

Lowest Opening Weekends in 3,000 and 3,500 Theatres

Films that open widely in 3,000+ theatres tend to open with at least $10m, and films with 3,500+ theatre counts almost always register openings higher than $25m, but there have been times were films have registered low openings despite wide saturation. Among those, the worst by far has been Hoot, which had a disastrous $3.37m opening in 3,018 theatres. The following is a list of the worst openings in 3,000 and 3,500 theatres.

Worst Opening Weekends in 3,000+ Theatres

1 Hoot $3,368,197 3,018 $1,116
2 The Seeker: The Dark Is Rising $3,745,315 3,141 $1,192
3 Meet Dave $5,251,918 3,011 $1,744
4 Imagine That $5,503,519 3,008 $1,830
5 New York Minute $5,962,106 3,006 $1,983
6 The Wild Thornberrys $6,013,847 3,012 $1,996
7 Quest for Camelot $6,041,602 3,107 $1,944
8 Shorts $6,410,339 3,105 $2,065
9 Astro Boy $6,702,923 3,014 $2,224
10 Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas $6,874,477 3,086 $2,227
11 The Nativity Story $7,849,304 3,183 $2,466
12 Aliens in the Attic $8,008,423 3,106 $2,578
13 The Ant Bully $8,432,465 3,050 $2,764
14 School for Scoundrels $8,602,333 3,004 $2,863
15 Cheaper by the Dozen 2 $9,309,387 3,175 $2,932
16 Stuck on You $9,411,055 3,003 $3,133
17 Babylon A.D. $9,484,627 3,390 $2,798
18 Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo $9,626,287 3,127 $3,078
19 Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium $9,630,085 3,164 $3,043

Worst Opening Weekends in 3,500+ Theatres

1 Charlotte's Web (2006) $11,457,353 3,566 $3,212
2 Herbie: Fully Loaded $12,709,221 3,521 $3,609
3 Nim's Island $13,210,579 3,513 $3,760
4 Snakes on a Plane $13,806,311 3,555 $3,883
5 Gridiron Gang $14,414,630 3,504 $4,113
6 Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit $16,025,987 3,645 $4,396
7 The Shaggy Dog $16,310,058 3,501 $4,658
8 The Legend of Zorro $16,328,506 3,520 $4,638
9 Just Like Heaven $16,408,718 3,508 $4,677
10 RV $16,414,767 3,639 $4,510
11 Surf's Up $17,640,249 3,528 $5,000
12 Fred Claus $18,515,473 3,603 $5,138
13 Speed Racer $18,561,337 3,606 $5,147
14 Flushed Away $18,814,323 3,707 $5,075
15 Land of the Lost $18,837,350 3,521 $5,350
16 The Spiderwick Chronicles $19,004,058 3,847 $4,939
17 Poseidon $22,155,410 3,555 $6,232
18 Monster House $22,217,226 3,553 $6,253
19 The Polar Express $23,323,463 3,650 $6,389
20 Open Season $23,624,548 3,833 $6,163

Films With $30M+ Openings Weekends in Less than 3,000 Theatres

As suggested by the post title, this is a list of all the 48 films that opened above $30m while playing in less than 3,000 theatres. A sub-3000 theatre count is not entirely unheard of nowdays, but it is unusual for blockbusters. Tyker Perry's films, which tend to play to a particular audience and have thus a concentrated target, are the most obvious examples of recent films that had large openings from relatively small theatre counts. Hannah Montana's enormous opening on an incredibly small theatre count is an obvious standout as well.

1 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace $64,820,970 2,970 $21,825
2 Batman Forever $52,784,433 2,842 $18,572
3 8 Mile $51,240,555 2,470 $20,745
4 Independence Day $50,228,264 2,882 $17,428
5 Jurassic Park $47,026,828 2,404 $19,561
6 Batman Returns $45,687,711 2,644 $17,279
7 Batman & Robin $42,872,606 2,934 $14,612
8 Scary Movie $42,346,669 2,912 $14,542
9 Twister $41,059,405 2,414 $17,008
10 Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail $41,030,947 2,032 $20,192
11 The Lion King $40,888,194 2,552 $16,022
12 Batman $40,489,746 2,194 $18,454
13 The Fast and the Furious $40,089,015 2,628 $15,254
14 The Waterboy $39,414,071 2,664 $14,795
15 Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls $37,804,076 2,652 $14,254
16 Air Force One $37,132,505 2,919 $12,720
17 Interview with the Vampire $36,389,705 2,604 $13,974
18 Star Wars (Special Edition) $35,906,661 2,104 $17,065
19 Gladiator $34,819,017 2,938 $11,851
20 Couples Retreat $34,286,740 3,000 $11,429
21 Ransom $34,216,088 2,676 $12,786
22 Wedding Crashers $33,900,720 2,925 $11,589
23 101 Dalmatians (Live Action) $33,504,025 2,794 $11,991
24 The Haunting $33,435,140 2,808 $11,907
25 A Bug's Life $33,258,052 2,686 $12,382
26 Lethal Weapon 3 $33,243,086 2,510 $13,244
27 Superbad $33,052,411 2,948 $11,211
28 Rush Hour $33,001,803 2,638 $12,510
29 Scream 2 $32,926,342 2,663 $12,364
30 Blade II $32,528,016 2,707 $12,016
31 Terminator 2: Judgment Day $31,765,506 2,274 $13,969
32 Saw II $31,725,652 2,949 $10,758
33 The Truman Show $31,542,121 2,315 $13,625
34 Liar Liar $31,423,025 2,845 $11,045
35 Home Alone 2: Lost in New York $31,126,882 2,222 $14,008
36 Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour $31,117,834 683 $45,560
37 Bringing Down the House $31,101,026 2,801 $11,103
38 Star Trek: First Contact $30,716,131 2,812 $10,923
39 Knocked Up $30,690,990 2,871 $10,690
40 Bruno $30,619,130 2,756 $11,110
41 Saving Private Ryan $30,576,104 2,463 $12,414
42 Bram Stoker's Dracula $30,521,679 2,491 $12,252
43 The Happening $30,517,109 2,986 $10,220
44 Unbreakable $30,330,771 2,708 $11,200
45 The X-Files: Fight the Future $30,138,758 2,629 $11,463
46 DodgeBall: A True Underdog Story $30,070,196 2,694 $11,161
47 The Exorcism of Emily Rose $30,054,300 2,981 $10,081
48 Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion $30,030,661 2,194 $13,687

A Note on The All Time Domestic #1s: Star Wars, E.T., Titanic

As noted here, Titanic held the record for biggest domestic film for for 620 weeks, or 4,343 days, or 11 years, 10 months, and 19 days.


What about previous record holders? Well, given the sparse data, exact dates can't really be given for films prior to the 1980s, although Gone With the Wind has occupied the top perch for longer than any film, from 1939 to the 1960s. Beginning with E.T., however, it is possible to get some exact info. OK, so here it goes:

Between its May 1977 opening and E.T. release in June, 1982, Star Wars: A New Hope had accumulated a total of $307,263,857, making it the biggest film of all time, surpassing Jaws, whose total was at around $260m. As evident from this chart, Star Wars' total did not approach $200m, let alone $300m, until well after 1977, and it's likely that the film did not surpass Jaws until sometime in the middle of 1978, a year after its release.

E.T. opened on June 11th, 1982. Almost exactly two months later, in August, Star Wars was re-released, adding $15,476,285 to its original tally. That brought A New Hope's total to $322,740,142- the benchmark E.T. had to surpass in order to claim the all-time record.

As it happens, while Star Wars was having its re-release, E.T. was experiencing a stunning run at the box office. The film was #1 for most of the summer, and would end up with 16 weekends at #1, more than any other film and one more weekend than Titanic.

E.T. surpassed the $300m mark on Dec. 11th, 1982, 184 days into its run (see here), and surpassed Star Wars' initial total of $307.3m on Dec. 25th, 1982.

On January 14th, 1983, with a total of $322,956,667, E.T. surpassed Star Was to claim the record for biggest domestic release. If we take mid-1978 as the moment at which Star Wars surpassed Jaws, then that means that it held the record for biggest film of all time for roughly 4 1/2 years, or 54 months.

E.T.'s initial total came out to an enormous $359,197,037. The film had two re-releases, one in 1985, and one in 2002 (which we don't have to worry about). The film's 1985 release was hugely successful, adding $40,607,502 to the film's initital gross for a total of $399,804,539. This number, so tantalizingly close to $400m, would be the domestic benchmark for over a decade, until Star Wars' re-release in 1997.

The Star Wars trilogy was re-released in 1997. The re-releases were spectacularly successful; A New Hope added $138,257,865 to its gross, bringing its total just before Titanic's release to $460,998,007, thereby allowing the film to re-claim the all-time title from E.T.

Star Wars surpassed E.T.'s $399.8m, and became the first film to surpass the $400m mark, on February 13th, 1997.

E.T. was the #1 film of all time, therefore, between January 14th, 1983 and February 13th, 1997. It held the record for an astonishing 5,144 days (801 more than Titanic), or almost 735 weeks (115 weeks more than Titanic), or for slightly more than 14 years.

Star Wars' reign as the new, old champ, of course, did not last long. The film was surpassed by Titanic on March 14th, 1998. Star Wars was, therefore, #1 for 394 days, or 56 weeks and 2 days. In combination with its initial run, the film was #1 for around 5 1/2 years, or roughly 67 months.


In summary, therefore:

E.T. January 14th, 1983-February 13th, 1997 (5,144 days)
Star Wars: A New Hope February 13th, 1997-March 14th, 1998 (394 days)
Titanic March 14th, 1998-February 2nd, 2010 (4,343 days)
Avatar February 2nd, 2010-?

One interesting note: since Star Wars surpassed Jaws in the summer of 1978, for the last 30 years, the domestic box office crown passed from one film to another during the first three months of the year.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

The Road to #1: An Avatar Box Office Chronology

The following two charts essentially track Avatar's progress up the box office chart, as it was surpassing various films on its way to the #1 spot domestically. As you can see, the brisk pace of the film up the charts is quite amazing. It took the film only ten days after it passed The Dark Knight to surpass Titanic's all time record.



Avatar Surpasses Titanic's Domestic Record

The most prestigious record at the domestic box office is now, as expected, Avatar's. On Tuesday, Avatar surpassed Titanic to become the biggest film of all time at the North American box office. The film, now at $601,141,551 after 47 days, surpassed Titanic's $600,788,188 cume. James Cameron is now the only filmmakers whose film has surpassed his previous one to achieve the all time record. Steven Spielberg came very, very close with Jurassic Park and E.T., but Jurassic Park, while it raced past E.T. globally, remained well behind E.T. on the domestic front.

Avatar will not be losing much steam anytime soon, and looks headed for $800m now. A truly historic run, irrespective of the film's artistic merits.

As for Titanic, it became the biggest film of all time on March 14th, 1998, on its 86th day, by surpassing Star Wars: A New Hope's $461m, which included the $138m tally from the film's 1997 re-release.

Titanic was #1 domestically for 620 weeks, or 4,343 days, or 11 years, 10 months, and 19 days.

It is highly unlikely that Avatar's record will stand for this long. In fact, I expect a film to surpass Avatar sometime this decade, as ticket price inflation will increase the likelihood of $500m+ films. And as Avatar itself demonstrates, nothing remains stagnant at the box office.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Avatar Weekend Records: 2nd to 7th Weekends

In my opinion, the most impressive aspect of Avatar's run domestically and internationally has been its amazing legs; the film has held up incredibly well weekend to weekend, and in fact now holds the biggest second to seventh weekends. Also incredible: the difference between its new records and the previous ones. The film has been ahead of the other films, mostly Titanic, by very wide margins. The film will have enough to steam to get the 8th weekend record as well next week, but the 9th weekend record, which is held by Titanic with $28m, looks to be finally too insurmountable for Avatar. Overall, however, a truly historic streak of records.



Second Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $75,617,183 3,456 $21,880 Diff. #1&2 $450,717
2 The Dark Knight $75,166,466 4,366 $17,216 % Diff. 0.60%
3 Shrek 2 $72,170,363 4,223 $17,089
4 Spider-Man $71,417,527 3,615 $19,755
5 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $62,345,264 4,133 $15,084
Third Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $68,490,688 3,461 $19,789 Diff. #1&2 $23,453,776
2 Spider-Man $45,036,912 3,615 $12,458 % Diff. 52.08%
3 The Dark Knight $42,664,219 4,266 $10,001
4 Shrek 2 $37,931,716 4,131 $9,182
5 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $35,215,201 4,133 $8,520
Fourth Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $50,306,217 3,422 $14,701 Diff. #1&2 $21,589,907
2 Titanic $28,716,310 2,746 $10,458 % Diff. 75.18%
3 Spider-Man $28,508,104 3,876 $7,355
4 The Dark Knight $26,117,030 4,025 $6,489
5 The Chronicles of Narnia 1 $25,686,555 3,853 $6,666
Fifth Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $42,785,612 3,285 $13,025 Diff. #1&2 $12,774,578
2 Titanic $30,011,034 2,767 $10,846 % Diff. 42.57%
3 The Sixth Sense $22,896,967 2,775 $8,251
4 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace $18,859,021 3,019 $6,246
5 The Dark Knight $16,379,293 3,590 $4,562
Sixth Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $34,944,081 3,141 $11,125 Diff. #1&2 $9,705,361
2 Titanic $25,238,720 2,771 $9,108 % Diff. 38.45%
3 The Sixth Sense $16,511,464 2,782 $5,935
4 Mrs. Doubtfire $16,346,568 2,325 $7,030
5 Aladdin $15,642,073 2,255 $6,936
Seventh Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $31,280,029 3,074 $10,176 Diff. #1&2 $5,372,857
2 Titanic $25,907,172 2,853 $9,081 % Diff. 20.74%
3 The Passion of the Christ $15,216,723 3,240 $4,696
4 The Blind Side $11,912,749 2,926 $4,071
5 Mrs. Doubtfire $11,536,024 2,345 $4,919


Here's a graph comparing Avatar's weekends grosses with those of either the top films or the previous record holders. Avatar corresponds to the black line; the other reflects The Dark Knight's opening weekend record, Spider-Man 1's previous third weekend record, and for the rest, Titanic's previous 4th to 7th weekend records.