Brief Weekend Recap (August 7th-9th, 2009)

Here's the weekend chart, with actuals.

A few briefs comments:

-G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra had a strong opening with $54.7m, which was down considerably from the $56.2m estimate due to a larger Sunday drop than the one predicted by the studio. The film defied bad publicity at several stages of its development and pre-release. Its subequent run will depend on several factors over the coming days, but the film looks to have a fairly solid overall gross as well. Word of mouth is average, which suggests that it might not help up too well in the face of mounting competition in the weeks to come. Working away from an assumed $23-25m second weekend, I'd put the total at $145m at this point.

-Julie & Julia had a good opening with $20m. Films of this kind tend to have healthy runs, and the film has enough room to acquire audiences over the next month or two. I think it's too early to tell at this point whether it can get close to $100m, but $80-90m should be easily achievable.

-Terrible hold for Funny People. Look for the film to fizzle out even further as it starts shedding theatres. I see $57m at most, unless the film stabilizes at some point later on and adds a few more million.

-The 50% drop for Harry Potter is unfortunate, but the film is still headed toward $300m. Potter was evidently affected by G.I. Joe, but the steep thearte count drop is partly responsible as well.

-The Hangover held up well again, despite the fact that this is its second worst drop. A remarkable performance continues to be, well, remarkable. $270m is within easy reach, and I suspect the film might even get past $273m.

-Transformers looks safe to pass $400m, while Ice Age 3 will miss the $200m mark due to the theatre count drop. International figures more than make up for anything domestic shortcomings, however, as Ice Age 3 looks to possibly become one of the four biggest international films of all time. Up looks to finish with $289-290m.

The top 12 films this weekend grossed a total of $132m, up 16.3% from last weekend and 18.4% from the same weekend last year, when The Dark Knight continued at the top of the charts for a fourth weekend in a row. This is also the 16th biggest weekend of the year and the 12th biggest of this summer (that is, the 4th worst).

Charts coming up!

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince: Third Weekend

Potter had quite a healthy third weekend, boosted by the IMAX screens it got mid-week last week. The sub-40% drop effectively guarantees that the film will pass $300m, becoming only the second Potter film to do so. Half-Blood Prince registered the 86th best third weekend of all time: