Saturday, January 30, 2010

Avatar: International Market Shares

This is a ranking of Avatar's markets and the share of the film's total that they account for. France's share, of course, is amazing, as is Australia's and that of many other territories. Avatar's total is spread out generously across many territories. In other words, it's doing great everywhere.


Country/Territory Share Total Gross
United States of America 26.974% $495,990,100
France 6.789% $124,843,250
China 5.608% $103,113,774
Russia 5.235% $96,259,863
Germany 5.211% $95,811,129
United Kingdom and Ireland 5.068% $93,186,189
South Korea 4.334% $79,691,558
Japan 4.225% $77,697,099
Australia 4.188% $77,003,943
Spain 4.133% $76,001,259
Canada 3.032% $55,751,400
Brazil 2.107% $38,740,895
Italy 2.039% $37,486,649
Mexico 1.929% $35,469,025
India 1.211% $22,276,532
Taiwan 1.180% $21,695,287
Hong Kong 0.913% $16,779,658
Poland 0.895% $16,453,985
Netherlands 0.883% $16,240,875
Sweden 0.870% $15,991,521
Denmark 0.866% $15,917,610
Switzerland 0.707% $12,999,706
Turkey 0.673% $12,381,951
Greece 0.631% $11,606,384
Austria 0.618% $11,366,599
Belgium and Luxembourg 0.567% $10,420,392
Norway 0.543% $9,982,702
Colombia 0.510% $9,374,152
Czech Republic/Slovakia 0.505% $9,293,702
New Zealand and Fiji 0.481% $8,836,171
Thailand 0.435% $8,004,189
Venezuela 0.422% $7,767,524
Chile 0.411% $7,564,359
Portugal and Angola 0.403% $7,407,474
Singapore 0.403% $7,405,758
Argentina 0.394% $7,238,075
Malaysia 0.348% $6,407,423
Israel 0.342% $6,288,772
Ukraine 0.323% $5,942,885
Hungary 0.316% $5,805,220
Indonesia 0.285% $5,234,122
Philippines 0.283% $5,197,803
United Arab Emirates 0.282% $5,177,465
Romania 0.233% $4,287,054
Finland 0.227% $4,179,338
Peru 0.210% $3,870,255
Bulgaria 0.164% $3,024,267
Ecuador 0.109% $1,996,001
Slovenia 0.076% $1,391,581
Croatia 0.058% $1,058,533
Dominican Republic 0.056% $1,036,515
Bolivia 0.056% $1,020,908
Egypt 0.054% $989,389
Latvia 0.049% $899,415
Lithuania 0.048% $889,003
Lebanon 0.048% $885,944
Kuwait 0.048% $880,572
Iceland 0.047% $865,636
Vietnam 0.045% $835,523
Estonia 0.043% $793,376
Serbia and Montenegro 0.038% $702,398
Qatar 0.035% $636,745
Uruguay 0.033% $601,515
Jordan 0.028% $513,589
Trinidad & Tobago 0.028% $506,153
Jamaica 0.025% $453,684
Bahrain 0.020% $366,396
Oman 0.008% $141,192
Syria 0.006% $110,169
Nigeria 0.006% $105,308
Ghana 0.001% $22,231
WORLDWIDE $1,838,802,321
NORTH AMERICA (US&CA) 30.005% $551,741,499
INTERNATIONAL 69.995% $1,287,060,822

AVATAR's Worldwide Performance: Per Capita (UPDATE)

This is an update of a chart I posted a while ago (please see below for more info). All of the country totals are for January 24th or January 20th, as is the data for North American and Worldwide grosses. Sources for the box office data is here and for population here.


All of the countries have (of course) improved. Since last Sunday, the film's international has risen to $1.352B, and it will add at least another $80m this weekend. The international tally, in the end, should be well above $1.8B, and the film looks headed for $2.6B Worldwide. Amazing.

Country/Territory Per Capita Gross Total Gross Population
Australia $ 3.4821 $77,003,943 22,114,000
Denmark $ 2.8771 $15,917,610 5,532,531
Iceland $ 2.7256 $865,636 317,593
Hong Kong $ 2.3941 $16,779,658 7,008,900
Norway $ 2.0567 $9,982,702 4,853,800
France $ 1.9185 $124,843,250 65,073,482
Sweden $ 1.7137 $15,991,521 9,331,523
New Zealand and Fiji $ 1.6996 $8,836,171 5,199,100
Switzerland $ 1.6727 $12,999,706 7,771,600
Spain $ 1.6534 $76,001,259 45,967,632
South Korea $ 1.6488 $79,691,558 48,333,000
Canada $ 1.6414 $55,751,400 33,965,000
United States of America $ 1.6085 $495,990,100 308,354,000
Singapore $ 1.4848 $7,405,758 4,987,600
United Kingdom and Ireland $ 1.4013 $93,186,189 66,501,008
Austria $ 1.3575 $11,366,599 8,372,930
Germany $ 1.1701 $95,811,129 81,882,342
United Arab Emirates $ 1.1258 $5,177,465 4,599,000
Greece $ 1.0266 $11,606,384 11,306,183
Netherlands $ 0.9794 $16,240,875 16,581,900
Taiwan $ 0.9404 $21,695,287 23,069,345
Belgium and Luxembourg $ 0.9197 $10,420,392 11,329,726
Israel $ 0.8375 $6,288,772 7,509,000
Finland $ 0.7807 $4,179,338 5,353,600
Portugal and Angola $ 0.6964 $7,407,474 10,636,888
Russia $ 0.6783 $96,259,863 141,915,979
Slovenia $ 0.6782 $1,391,581 2,051,770
Italy $ 0.6222 $37,486,649 60,250,535
Japan $ 0.6092 $77,697,099 127,530,000
Estonia $ 0.5919 $793,376 1,340,415
Czech Republic/Slovakia $ 0.5833 $9,293,702 15,934,334
Hungary $ 0.5797 $5,805,220 10,013,628
Bahrain $ 0.4632 $366,396 791,000
Qatar $ 0.4519 $636,745 1,409,000
Chile $ 0.4445 $7,564,359 17,018,000
Poland $ 0.4319 $16,453,985 38,100,700
Latvia $ 0.3998 $899,415 2,249,700
Bulgaria $ 0.3992 $3,024,267 7,576,751
Trinidad & Tobago $ 0.3780 $506,153 1,339,000
Mexico $ 0.3298 $35,469,025 107,550,697
Kuwait $ 0.2950 $880,572 2,985,000
Venezuela $ 0.2714 $7,767,524 28,623,000
Lithuania $ 0.2670 $889,003 3,329,227
Croatia $ 0.2387 $1,058,533 4,435,056
Malaysia $ 0.2264 $6,407,423 28,306,700
Lebanon $ 0.2097 $885,944 4,224,000
Colombia $ 0.2071 $9,374,152 45,263,000
Brazil $ 0.2014 $38,740,895 192,325,000
Romania $ 0.1997 $4,287,054 21,466,174
Argentina $ 0.1803 $7,238,075 40,134,425
Uruguay $ 0.1790 $601,515 3,361,000
Turkey $ 0.1731 $12,381,951 71,517,100
Jamaica $ 0.1669 $453,684 2,719,000
Ecuador $ 0.1415 $1,996,001 14,111,000
Peru $ 0.1329 $3,870,255 29,132,013
Ukraine $ 0.1292 $5,942,885 46,011,345
Thailand $ 0.1263 $8,004,189 63,389,730
Bolivia $ 0.1033 $1,020,908 9,879,000
Dominican Republic $ 0.1027 $1,036,515 10,090,000
Jordan $ 0.0813 $513,589 6,316,000
China $ 0.0772 $103,113,774 1,335,230,000
Serbia and Montenegro $ 0.0671 $702,398 10,474,000
Philippines $ 0.0564 $5,197,803 92,226,600
Oman $ 0.0496 $141,192 2,845,000
Indonesia $ 0.0226 $5,234,122 231,369,500
India $ 0.0190 $22,276,532 1,175,500,000
Egypt $ 0.0127 $989,389 77,724,000
Vietnam $ 0.0097 $835,523 85,789,573
Syria $ 0.0050 $110,169 21,906,000
Ghana $ 0.0009 $22,231 23,837,000
Nigeria $ 0.0007 $105,308 154,729,000
WORLDWIDE $ 0.2704 $1,838,802,321 6,799,500,000
NORTH AMERICA (US&CA) $ 1.6106 $551,741,499 342,564,000
INTERNATIONAL $ 0.1993 $1,287,060,822 6,456,936,000

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Avatar Estimated Admissions: Daily, Weekend, Weekly, Total

Admissions figures are always problematic in North America, since films are simply not tracked that way, but Avatar poses a particular challenge, because of the 3D and IMAX effect. The New York Times recently gave 56m as the rough estimate for tickets sold through last Monday, at which point Avatar's gross stood at $554.9m. You can read the article here.


The relevant passage:

Fox said 72 percent of worldwide sales for “Avatar” came from 3-D screens. If Mr. Dergarabedian’s estimates are correct, the movie has accounted for roughly 56 million admissions in domestic theaters to date.

That means that Avatar's average ticket price is around $9.9, which is astonishingly high. Almost 35% higher than the 2009 average of $7.35. Using that figure as the benchmark, then, here are the estimated admissions figures for Avatar's daily numbers:

Day Weekday Daily # Weekend # Weekly # Total #
1 Friday 2,702,232 2,702,232
2 Saturday 2,578,691 5,280,923
3 Sunday 2,499,429 7,780,352 7,780,352
4 Monday 1,655,133 9,435,485
5 Tuesday 1,624,895 11,060,380
6 Wednesday 1,661,141 12,721,521
7 Thursday 1,126,363 13,847,884 13,847,884
8 Friday 2,332,833 16,180,717
9 Saturday 2,856,001 19,036,717
10 Sunday 2,449,261 7,638,094 21,485,978
11 Monday 1,961,428 23,447,406
12 Tuesday 1,847,538 25,294,945
13 Wednesday 1,865,265 27,160,209
14 Thursday 1,488,701 14,801,026 28,648,910
15 Friday 2,552,930 31,201,840
16 Saturday 2,609,652 33,811,492
17 Sunday 1,755,670 6,918,251 35,567,161
18 Monday 817,632 36,384,793
19 Tuesday 740,125 37,124,918
20 Wednesday 697,896 37,822,813
21 Thursday 615,601 9,789,504 38,438,414
22 Friday 1,341,480 39,779,894
23 Saturday 2,148,438 41,928,332
24 Sunday 1,591,518 5,081,436 43,519,850
25 Monday 516,282 44,036,132
26 Tuesday 511,791 44,547,923
27 Wednesday 479,168 45,027,091
28 Thursday 474,626 7,063,304 45,501,718
29 Friday 1,049,926 46,551,643
30 Saturday 1,742,839 48,294,483
31 Sunday 1,529,014 4,321,779 49,823,497
32 Monday 1,173,317 50,996,813
33 Tuesday 423,328 51,420,141
34 Wednesday 383,112 51,803,253
35 Thursday 398,506 6,700,042 52,201,759
36 Friday 911,969 53,113,728
37 Saturday 1,649,096 54,762,824
38 Sunday 968,640 3,529,705 55,731,465
39 Monday 327,292 56,058,757
40 Tuesday 323,035 56,381,792

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

AVATAR vs. TITANIC International Market Shares

Avatar surpassed Titanic's international gross over the weekend, thus claiming one of Titanic's three big records. Avatar has made $1,287,060,822 internationally thus far, roughly $50m more than Titanic's once insurmountable $1,248,025,607. Sometime on Monday, Avatar claimed the ultimate, worldwide record by surpassing Titanic's global total of $1.848B. The domestic record is several days away from being surpassed, but it is an inevitability.


I have run out of words to describe Avatar's worldwide performance. It is, now, quite literally incomparable. I don't expect Avatar to hold the international record for as long as Titanic did, but its final tally, which will probably be around $1.8B or so, will be extremely difficult to match anytime soon.

I think it is useful to look at the market share for each film, and how much the major territories contributed to the grosses for both films.


Two things stick out:

1) Both Avatar and Titanic did exceptionally well in every market. Consistency is one of the key features of both films' successes.

2) Whereas Japan was the main market for Titanic, it is clear that for Avatar, the newer markets (China, Russia, and South Korea) have made the big difference and pushed the film over the top. In a way, the differences between the two films reflect the changes in the global economic structure. China recently surpassed Japan as the second largest economy in the world, and the economies of Russia and other emerging markets have grown by a disproportionately larger market. China is on track to surpass France as Avatar's largest market.



A Look at Film Multipliers

Multipliers are a measure of a film's longevity, and are calculated simply by dividing a film's total by a film's opening weekend. The higher the multiplier, the greater a film's legs, that is, the more impressive and healthier a film's run.

The following are charts ranking films with domestic totals of $30m or more (minus re-releases) from 1982 to the present. So, in other words, the charts below track how well medium and large sized films over the last three decades have held up during their subsequent runs.

Unfortunately, due to the varied release patterns, multipliers alone don't give an exact idea of how well films hold up. Most films open wide and drop weekend to weekend until they are pulled from theatres. Some films, such as Driving Miss Daisy or Chicago, open in limited release and then go wide later in order to take advantage of awards publicity. And yet other films, above all Disney's animated releases, such as Aladdin, The Lion King, and Pocahontas, open in a few theatres just prior to broad, nation-wide openings.

I've tried to make several charts in order to engage with these different release patterns and give credit to various films that held up remarkable well. With that in mind, here is a chart simply showing films, irrespective of their openings, and the largest multipliers:

# Title Multiplier Total ($M) Op. Wknd ($M)
1 Mr. Holland's Opus 5,707.865 $82.57 $0.014
2 Driving Miss Daisy 1,445.431 $106.59 $0.074
3 On Golden Pond 1,337.086 $119.29 $0.089
4 Aladdin 1,105.186 $217.35 $0.197
5 Snatch 1,085.785 $30.33 $0.028
6 The Killing Fields 1,078.285 $34.70 $0.032
7 I Am Sam 964.883 $40.31 $0.042
8 Beauty and the Beast 899.580 $145.86 $0.162
9 Chariots of Fire 855.833 $58.97 $0.069
10 Toy Story 2 819.062 $245.85 $0.300
11 A Civil Action 809.229 $56.71 $0.070
12 Fried Green Tomatoes 782.575 $82.42 $0.105
13 Thirteen Days 741.238 $34.59 $0.047
14 Homeward Bound: The Incredible Journey 689.500 $41.83 $0.061
15 Traffic 671.895 $124.12 $0.185
16 Legends of the Fall 655.443 $66.64 $0.102
17 Murphy's Romance 644.335 $30.87 $0.048
18 Good Morning, Vietnam 637.763 $123.92 $0.194
19 Moonstruck 631.984 $80.64 $0.128
20 The Crying Game 618.641 $62.55 $0.101
21 Black Hawk Down 604.143 $108.64 $0.180
22 My Dog Skip 599.453 $34.13 $0.057
23 Platoon 574.625 $138.53 $0.241
24 March of the Penguins 563.213 $77.44 $0.137
25 A Bug's Life 559.213 $162.80 $0.291
26 Million Dollar Baby 558.436 $100.49 $0.180
27 Gran Torino 545.029 $148.10 $0.272
28 A Fish Called Wanda 541.456 $62.49 $0.115
29 Philadelphia 539.949 $77.45 $0.143
30 Nell 537.539 $33.68 $0.063
31 The Verdict 534.523 $53.98 $0.101
32 The Cider House Rules 522.672 $57.55 $0.110
33 Good Will Hunting 507.246 $138.43 $0.273
34 Grand Canyon 492.154 $33.24 $0.068
35 Anastasia 484.535 $58.41 $0.121
36 Life Is Beautiful 481.394 $57.25 $0.119
37 Wag the Dog 467.663 $43.06 $0.092
38 A Beautiful Mind 465.047 $170.74 $0.367
39 The Queen 462.584 $56.44 $0.122
40 Chocolat 453.671 $71.51 $0.158
41 Leaving Las Vegas 451.992 $32.03 $0.071
42 Shakespeare in Love 447.823 $100.32 $0.224
43 Nobody's Fool 425.386 $39.49 $0.093
44 Absence of Malice 416.896 $40.72 $0.098
45 Dangerous Liaisons 410.542 $34.67 $0.084
46 Born on the Fourth of July 406.937 $70.00 $0.172
47 My Big Fat Greek Wedding 404.174 $241.44 $0.597
48 Gandhi 402.338 $52.77 $0.131

This is a list of films with openings larger than $2m. Chicago and Pocahontas, among many others, were still very much in limited release:

# Title Multiplier Total ($M) Op. Wknd ($M)
1 Chicago 82.262 $170.69 $2.075
2 Pocahontas 52.637 $141.58 $2.690
3 The Empire Strikes Back 42.643 $209.40 $4.910
4 An Officer and a Gentleman 39.276 $129.80 $3.305
5 Arthur 35.102 $95.46 $2.720
6 Tootsie 31.983 $177.20 $5.540
7 Terms of Endearment 30.989 $108.42 $3.499
8 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial 30.349 $359.20 $11.835
9 Fantasia 2000 (35mm & IMAX) 26.481 $60.66 $2.291
10 9 to 5 26.039 $103.29 $3.967
11 Raiders of the Lost Ark 25.231 $209.56 $8.306
12 Rain Man 24.669 $172.83 $7.006
13 Out of Africa 23.938 $87.07 $3.637
14 Flashdance 22.796 $92.92 $4.076
15 Crocodile Dundee 21.745 $174.80 $8.039
16 Top Gun 21.578 $176.79 $8.193
17 Titanic 20.979 $600.79 $28.638
18 Full Metal Jacket 20.907 $46.36 $2.217
19 Little Women (1994) 20.771 $50.08 $2.411
20 Fatal Attraction 20.604 $156.65 $7.603
21 Bean 20.095 $45.32 $2.255
22 Coal Miner's Daughter 19.957 $67.18 $3.366
23 Back to the Future 18.885 $210.61 $11.153
24 Grumpy Old Men 18.109 $70.17 $3.875
25 The Karate Kid 18.048 $90.82 $5.032
26 48 HRS. 18.048 $78.87 $4.370
27 Ghost 17.851 $217.63 $12.192
28 Reds 17.369 $40.38 $2.325
29 Ghostbusters 16.883 $229.24 $13.578
30 Home Alone 16.729 $285.76 $17.082

This is perhaps the most interesting chart. It lists films with openings above $10m. E.T. and Titanic are obviously the big standouts, but note Avatar, which already has a remarkable multiplier of 7.163, which will only get bigger and will almost certainly now pass 10x. Amazing.

# Title Multiplier Total ($M) Op. Wknd ($M)
1 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial 30.349 $359.20 $11.835
2 Titanic 20.979 $600.79 $28.638
3 Back to the Future 18.885 $210.61 $11.153
4 Ghost 17.851 $217.63 $12.192
5 Ghostbusters 16.883 $229.24 $13.578
6 Home Alone 16.729 $285.76 $17.082
7 Three Men and a Baby 16.157 $167.78 $10.384
8 Pretty Woman 15.815 $178.41 $11.281
9 Beverly Hills Cop 15.430 $234.76 $15.215
10 Who Framed Roger Rabbit 13.936 $156.45 $11.226
11 Forrest Gump 13.484 $329.69 $24.451
12 There's Something About Mary 12.844 $176.48 $13.741
13 Gremlins 11.842 $148.17 $12.512
14 As Good as It Gets 11.777 $148.48 $12.607
15 Sister Act 11.737 $139.61 $11.895
16 Look Who's Talking 11.570 $140.09 $12.108
17 The Sixth Sense 11.000 $293.51 $26.681
18 Return of the Jedi 10.973 $252.58 $23.020
19 Mrs. Doubtfire 10.709 $219.20 $20.469
20 Miss Congeniality 10.631 $106.81 $10.047
21 Twins 10.017 $111.94 $11.175
22 Rocky III 9.986 $124.15 $12.431
23 Parenthood 9.523 $100.05 $10.506
24 City Slickers 9.518 $124.03 $13.032
25 The Silence of the Lambs 9.497 $130.74 $13.767
26 Stuart Little 9.324 $140.04 $15.018
27 Honey, I Shrunk the Kids 9.165 $130.72 $14.263
28 A Few Good Men 9.108 $141.34 $15.517
29 The Karate Kid Part II 9.097 $115.10 $12.652
30 Jumanji 9.065 $100.48 $11.084
31 Jerry Maguire 9.011 $153.95 $17.084
32 Hook 8.849 $119.65 $13.523
33 The Ring 8.600 $129.13 $15.015
34 Aliens 8.472 $85.16 $10.052
35 Speed 8.387 $121.25 $14.456
36 Disclosure 8.245 $83.02 $10.068
37 Night at the Museum 8.243 $250.86 $30.434
38 Cast Away 8.089 $233.63 $28.883
39 A League of Their Own 7.827 $107.53 $13.739
40 Basic Instinct 7.781 $117.73 $15.129
41 Dumb and Dumber 7.772 $127.18 $16.363
42 Something's Gotta Give 7.764 $124.73 $16.065
43 The Fugitive 7.739 $183.88 $23.759
44 Cape Fear 7.708 $79.09 $10.261
45 Superman II 7.672 $108.19 $14.101
46 Fun with Dick and Jane 7.671 $110.33 $14.384
47 The Untouchables 7.609 $76.27 $10.023
48 Jurassic Park 7.593 $357.07 $47.027
49 The Green Mile 7.593 $136.80 $18.017
50 The Santa Clause 7.496 $144.83 $19.322
51 Rambo: First Blood Part II 7.455 $150.42 $20.176
52 The Prince of Tides 7.452 $74.79 $10.035
53 Sleeping with the Enemy 7.374 $101.60 $13.778
54 Presumed Innocent 7.364 $86.30 $11.719
55 Sleepless in Seattle 7.342 $126.68 $17.254
56 The Bodyguard 7.341 $121.95 $16.612
57 A Time to Kill 7.338 $108.77 $14.823
58 Charlotte's Web (2006) 7.243 $82.99 $11.457
59 Lethal Weapon 2 7.222 $147.25 $20.389
60 The Family Man 7.181 $75.79 $10.555
61 Seven 7.178 $100.13 $13.950
62 Avatar 7.163 $551.74 $77.025
63 The Hunt for Red October 7.110 $122.01 $17.162
64 Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom 7.099 $179.87 $25.337
65 Saving Private Ryan 7.082 $216.54 $30.576

Here is a ranking of films with totals above $100m:

# Title Multiplier Total ($M) Op. Wknd ($M)
1 Driving Miss Daisy 1,445.431 $106.59 $0.074
2 On Golden Pond 1,337.086 $119.29 $0.089
3 Aladdin 1,105.186 $217.35 $0.197
4 Beauty and the Beast 899.580 $145.86 $0.162
5 Toy Story 2 819.062 $245.85 $0.300
6 Traffic 671.895 $124.12 $0.185
7 Good Morning, Vietnam 637.763 $123.92 $0.194
8 Black Hawk Down 604.143 $108.64 $0.180
9 Platoon 574.625 $138.53 $0.241
10 A Bug's Life 559.213 $162.80 $0.291
11 Million Dollar Baby 558.436 $100.49 $0.180
12 Gran Torino 545.029 $148.10 $0.272
13 Good Will Hunting 507.246 $138.43 $0.273
14 A Beautiful Mind 465.047 $170.74 $0.367
15 Shakespeare in Love 447.823 $100.32 $0.224
16 My Big Fat Greek Wedding 404.174 $241.44 $0.597
17 Slumdog Millionaire 392.536 $141.32 $0.360
18 Juno 346.717 $143.50 $0.414
19 Dances with Wolves 307.909 $184.21 $0.598
20 Dreamgirls 272.769 $103.37 $0.379
21 The Lion King 197.167 $312.86 $1.587
22 Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon 193.121 $128.08 $0.663
23 American Beauty 151.006 $130.10 $0.862
24 The Aviator 119.590 $102.61 $0.858
25 The Blair Witch Project 92.946 $140.54 $1.512

And finally, here is a ranking of the most successful films, those with $200m in total. Aladdin opened in limited release initially, as did Toy Story 2 and The Lion King. The biggest story here is My Big Fat Greek Wedding, which all things considered has had the most impressive multiplier of any film over the last three decades:

# Title Multiplier Total ($M) Op. Wknd ($M)
1 Aladdin 1,105.186 $217.35 $0.197
2 Toy Story 2 819.062 $245.85 $0.300
3 My Big Fat Greek Wedding 404.174 $241.44 $0.597
4 The Lion King 197.167 $312.86 $1.587
5 The Empire Strikes Back 42.643 $209.40 $4.910
6 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial 30.349 $359.20 $11.835
7 Raiders of the Lost Ark 25.231 $209.56 $8.306
8 Titanic 20.979 $600.79 $28.638
9 Back to the Future 18.885 $210.61 $11.153
10 Ghost 17.851 $217.63 $12.192
11 Ghostbusters 16.883 $229.24 $13.578
12 Home Alone 16.729 $285.76 $17.082
13 Beverly Hills Cop 15.430 $234.76 $15.215
14 Forrest Gump 13.484 $329.69 $24.451
15 The Sixth Sense 11.000 $293.51 $26.681
16 Return of the Jedi 10.973 $252.58 $23.020
17 Mrs. Doubtfire 10.709 $219.20 $20.469
18 Night at the Museum 8.243 $250.86 $30.434
19 Cast Away 8.089 $233.63 $28.883
20 Jurassic Park 7.593 $357.07 $47.027
21 Avatar 7.163 $551.74 $77.025
22 Saving Private Ryan 7.082 $216.54 $30.576
23 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace 6.650 $431.09 $64.821
24 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring 6.637 $313.36 $47.211
25 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl 6.550 $305.41 $46.631
26 Terminator 2: Judgment Day 6.449 $204.84 $31.766
27 Shrek 6.321 $267.67 $42.348
28 Batman 6.204 $251.19 $40.490
29 Wedding Crashers 6.173 $209.26 $33.901
30 The Hangover 6.166 $277.32 $44.979

Friday, January 22, 2010

Avatar Vs. The Dark Knight Vs. Titanic Daily Gross

As with the weekly figures, what is remarkable here is Avatar's consistency, which contrasts starkly with The Dark Knight's (still great) holds and holds up well in comparison with Titanic's.

Day Avatar The Dark Knight Titanic
1 $26,752,099 $67,165,092 $8,658,814
2 $25,529,036 -4.57% $47,650,240 -29.06% $10,672,013 23.25%
3 $24,744,346 -3.07% $43,596,151 -8.51% $9,307,304 -12.79%
4 $16,385,820 -33.78% $24,493,313 -43.82% $5,578,212 -40.07%
5 $16,086,461 -1.83% $20,868,722 -14.80% $6,003,119 7.62%
6 $16,445,291 2.23% $18,377,288 -11.94% $3,571,345 -40.51%
7 $11,150,998 -32.19% $16,464,405 -10.41% $9,178,529 157.00%
8 $23,095,046 107.11% $23,232,292 41.11% $12,122,298 32.07%
9 $28,274,406 22.43% $28,272,494 21.69% $12,466,455 2.84%
10 $24,247,681 -14.24% $23,661,680 -16.31% $10,866,920 -12.83%
11 $19,418,139 -19.92% $10,518,116 -55.55% $7,942,520 -26.91%
12 $18,290,628 -5.81% $9,629,366 -8.45% $8,012,909 0.89%
13 $18,466,123 0.96% $8,755,141 -9.08% $8,213,735 2.51%
14 $14,738,136 -20.19% $8,402,546 -4.03% $11,558,520 40.72%
15 $25,274,008 71.49% $12,709,035 51.25% $11,698,861 1.21%
16 $25,835,551 2.22% $17,191,150 35.27% $12,726,625 8.79%
17 $17,381,129 -32.72% $12,764,034 -25.75% $8,889,792 -30.15%
18 $8,094,554 -53.43% $6,287,429 -50.74% $3,022,271 -66.00%
19 $7,327,233 -9.48% $5,661,240 -9.96% $3,044,822 0.75%
20 $6,909,167 -5.71% $5,077,367 -10.31% $2,841,351 -6.68%
21 $6,094,445 -11.79% $4,734,366 -6.76% $2,789,088 -1.84%
22 $13,280,653 117.91% $7,577,362 60.05% $7,738,150 177.44%
23 $21,269,537 60.15% $10,502,243 38.60% $12,758,118 64.87%
24 $15,756,027 -25.92% $8,037,425 -23.47% $8,220,042 -35.57%
25 $5,111,193 -67.56% $3,742,198 -53.44% $2,170,146 -73.60%
26 $5,066,734 -0.87% $3,515,389 -6.06% $2,386,164 9.95%
27 $4,743,762 -6.37% $3,002,302 -14.60% $2,095,782 -12.17%
28 $4,698,802 -0.95% $2,814,471 -6.26% $2,200,465 4.99%
29 $10,394,264 121.21% $4,937,955 75.45% $7,418,385 237.13%
30 $17,254,108 66.00% $6,708,833 35.86% $12,357,344 66.58%
31 $15,137,240 -12.27% $4,732,505 -29.46% $10,235,305 -17.17%
32 $11,615,834 -23.26% $2,112,206 -55.37% $6,003,510 -41.35%
33 $4,190,947 -63.92% $2,148,332 1.71% $2,322,334 -61.32%
34 $3,792,807 -9.50% $1,805,312 -15.97% $2,076,976 -10.57%
35 $3,945,213 4.02% $1,726,461 -4.37% $2,212,942 6.55%




As you can see, Avatar has been well ahead of Titanic since the start, and its consistency has allowed it to outpace The Dark Knight convincingly.

Avatar Vs. The Dark Knight Vs. Titanic Weekly Gross

As Avatar enters its 6th week, during which it will surpass The Dark Knight and inch closer to Titanic, I think it's useful to look back on its performance in comparison to those two films during the first 5 weeks.


First off, in terms of weekly grosses, what is remarkable is just how consistent Avatar's grosses have been. It has surged far, far ahead of The Dark Knight and remains well ahead of Titanic.


Avatar The Dark Knight Titanic
Week 1 $137,094,051 $238,615,211 $52,969,336
Week 2 $146,530,159 6.88% $112,471,635 -52.86% $71,183,357 34.39%
Week 3 $96,916,087 -33.86% $64,424,621 -42.72% $45,012,810 -36.76%
Week 4 $69,926,708 -27.85% $39,191,390 -39.17% $37,568,867 -16.54%
Week 5 $66,330,413 -5.14% $24,171,604 -38.32% $42,626,796 13.46%


Thursday, January 14, 2010

2009 Box Office Review: Monthly Grosses

2009, as befits the biggest year at the box office, registered a string of monthly records. 2009 broke the monthly records for January, February, April, May, June, October, November, and December. Why? Because of a string of surprise hits, from Paul Blart and Taken to The Hangover and The Proposal to Avatar, which kept the box office on fire from beginning to end, even considering the slump in March and September. The standout here is clearly January, which bested the previous January record by almost $200m.

It remains to be seen whether 2010 can match or surpass the $10.6B tally for 2009, but it is off to a promising start; thanks to Avatar's massive success, 2010 is currently running almost 15% ahead of 2009.

Month Gross M-to-M Cumulative Est. Adm.
January $1,014,386,445 $1,014,386,445 138,011,761
February $769,343,451 -24.16% $1,783,729,896 104,672,578
March $651,567,920 -15.31% $2,435,297,816 88,648,697
April $695,111,135 6.68% $3,130,408,951 94,572,944
May $1,018,427,704 46.51% $4,148,836,655 138,561,592
June $1,086,729,130 6.71% $5,235,565,785 147,854,303
July $1,161,129,344 6.85% $6,396,695,129 157,976,781
August $905,308,293 -22.03% $7,302,003,422 123,171,196
September $543,558,798 -39.96% $7,845,562,220 73,953,578
October $692,565,754 27.41% $8,538,127,974 94,226,633
November $989,594,601 42.89% $9,527,722,575 134,638,721
December $1,066,136,750 7.73% $10,593,859,325 145,052,619
Total $10,593,859,325 1,441,341,405

Monthly Pie Chart

The two most glaring things here are 1) the low gross for September, traditionally the weakest month, and 2) the generally even distribution between many of the months. It's staggering that January almost matched the summer months and December, which are usually far ahead of the other months.



Month-to-Month Cumulative 2009 Gross

One striking thing about 2009 is that the box office was already halfway past its middle point halfway through the calendar year; usually, the summer period is the time when strong numbers compensate for the weak first half and push the year onward toward the holiday period at the end. Once again, it is due entirely to the strong January and February grosses.


Avatar: International Market Shares Graph

This is a pie graph to accompany the chart in the post below, showing each major market's share of the total international gross for Avatar. Click on graph to enlarge.

AVATAR: International Market Totals As Of Jan. 13th

Yet another amazing round of updates, with continued massive numbers for Avatar. The source for these, btw, is The Numbers. To explain the three % columns: % Intl. is the territory's share of the gross outside North America; % Vs. N. Am. compares the territory's gross to North America's tally, and % Worldwide gives the territories share of the worldwide total of $1.4B.


Note the amazing number for China, where the film has been out for barely a week.

Totals Predictions as of now: North America $650m, International $1,500m, Worldwide Total: $2,150m.

Territory Total (Jan 13th.) % Intl. % Vs. N.Am. % Worldwide
France $104,730,110 10.70% 23.49% 7.35%
Russia $81,882,056 8.37% 18.37% 5.75%
Germany $76,362,821 7.80% 17.13% 5.36%
United Kingdom $70,514,598 7.21% 15.82% 4.95%
South Korea $63,542,307 6.49% 14.25% 4.46%
Australia $62,441,661 6.38% 14.01% 4.38%
Spain $62,084,279 6.35% 13.93% 4.36%
Japan $58,592,306 5.99% 13.14% 4.11%
China $54,593,126 5.58% 12.25% 3.83%
Brazil $30,099,345 3.08% 6.75% 2.11%
Mexico $29,848,626 3.05% 6.70% 2.10%
India $18,614,051 1.90% 4.18% 1.31%
Taiwan $17,355,525 1.77% 3.89% 1.22%
Hong Kong $13,541,197 1.38% 3.04% 0.95%
Poland $13,292,831 1.36% 2.98% 0.93%
Sweden $12,989,642 1.33% 2.91% 0.91%
Holland $12,500,963 1.28% 2.80% 0.88%
Denmark $12,028,262 1.23% 2.70% 0.84%
Switzerland $9,894,962 1.01% 2.22% 0.69%
Greece $9,713,372 0.99% 2.18% 0.68%
Austria $9,248,404 0.95% 2.07% 0.65%
Turkey $9,180,049 0.94% 2.06% 0.64%
Belgium $8,577,248 0.88% 1.92% 0.60%
Norway $7,779,943 0.80% 1.75% 0.55%
Colombia $7,188,193 0.73% 1.61% 0.50%
Czech Republic/Slovakia $7,119,650 0.73% 1.60% 0.50%
Thailand $6,979,321 0.71% 1.57% 0.49%
New Zealand $6,742,268 0.69% 1.51% 0.47%
Singapore $6,631,485 0.68% 1.49% 0.47%
Venezuela $6,279,475 0.64% 1.41% 0.44%
Portugal $5,930,818 0.61% 1.33% 0.42%
Chile $5,922,798 0.61% 1.33% 0.42%
Malaysia $5,712,082 0.58% 1.28% 0.40%
Ukraine $5,193,366 0.53% 1.17% 0.36%
Indonesia $4,998,355 0.51% 1.12% 0.35%
Hungary $4,479,712 0.46% 1.00% 0.31%
Israel $4,410,319 0.45% 0.99% 0.31%
Puerto Rico $4,271,390 0.44% 0.96% 0.30%
United Arab Emirates $4,201,534 0.43% 0.94% 0.30%
Philippines $3,798,916 0.39% 0.85% 0.27%
South Africa $3,725,200 0.38% 0.84% 0.26%
Argentina $3,619,706 0.37% 0.81% 0.25%
Central America $3,604,153 0.37% 0.81% 0.25%
Finland $3,524,180 0.36% 0.79% 0.25%
Romania $3,293,185 0.34% 0.74% 0.23%
Peru $3,232,497 0.33% 0.73% 0.23%
Bulgaria $2,433,922 0.25% 0.55% 0.17%
Ecuador $1,747,627 0.18% 0.39% 0.12%
Slovenia $1,201,016 0.12% 0.27% 0.08%
Dominican Republic $919,555 0.09% 0.21% 0.06%
Croatia $890,576 0.09% 0.20% 0.06%
Bolivia $885,828 0.09% 0.20% 0.06%
Viet Nam $835,523 0.09% 0.19% 0.06%
Egypt $832,927 0.09% 0.19% 0.06%
Lithuania $760,484 0.08% 0.17% 0.05%
Latvia $760,039 0.08% 0.17% 0.05%
Iceland $752,512 0.08% 0.17% 0.05%
Kuwait $743,102 0.08% 0.17% 0.05%
Lebanon $731,664 0.07% 0.16% 0.05%
Estonia $688,483 0.07% 0.15% 0.05%
East & West Africa $637,022 0.07% 0.14% 0.04%
Serbia/Montenegro $564,143 0.06% 0.13% 0.04%
Qatar $537,747 0.05% 0.12% 0.04%
Uruguay $502,606 0.05% 0.11% 0.04%
Trinidad $450,684 0.05% 0.10% 0.03%
Jordan $408,413 0.04% 0.09% 0.03%
Jamaica $389,816 0.04% 0.09% 0.03%
Bahrain $298,982 0.03% 0.07% 0.02%
Oman $133,326 0.01% 0.03% 0.01%
Syria $81,779 0.01% 0.02% 0.01%
International Total $978,454,063 100.00% 219.50% 68.70%
North American Total $445,768,203 N/A 100.00% 31.30%
Worldwide Total $1,424,222,266 N/A 319.50% 100.00%

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

AVATAR: Global Markets Share

This is in line with the previous chart/post regarding Avatar's global performance. France, Russia, Spain, and Australia are the big stories thus far, but China's incredible opening week figures suggest that it will end up as either the largest or second largest market for Avatar outside the United States (see xiayun's website for more information).


The 68% overseas share of Avatar's total underscores just how important the international markets have been to the film's overall success. Expect that share to increase as China adds to the film's overseas total and Italy finally enters the picture this upcoming weekend.


Country Total USD Share
United States $388,448,000 28.86%
France $101,393,223 7.53%
Russia $78,422,271 5.83%
Germany $73,381,489 5.45%
United Kingdom $67,063,506 4.98%
Spain $60,112,290 4.47%
Australia $57,860,731 4.30%
South Korea $54,688,982 4.06%
Japan $50,760,456 3.77%
Canada $42,399,000 3.15%
China $41,417,617 3.08%
Mexico $28,442,031 2.11%
Brazil $28,224,642 2.10%
India $17,821,955 1.32%
Taiwan $16,356,079 1.22%
Hong Kong $13,117,211 0.97%
Sweden $12,400,165 0.92%
Netherlands $12,203,351 0.91%
Denmark $11,264,712 0.84%
Poland $9,703,779 0.72%
Switzerland $9,673,584 0.72%
Greece $9,427,868 0.70%
Austria $9,002,969 0.67%
Turkey $8,969,218 0.67%
Belgium and Luxembourg $8,299,289 0.62%
Norway $7,338,314 0.55%
Czech Republic/Slovakia $6,853,665 0.51%
Thailand $6,817,339 0.51%
Singapore $6,527,894 0.49%
New Zealand and Fiji $6,367,232 0.47%
Colombia $6,323,720 0.47%
Venezuela $5,822,558 0.43%
Chile $5,750,928 0.43%
Portugal $5,731,447 0.43%
Malaysia $5,597,453 0.42%
Ukraine $4,889,781 0.36%
Indonesia $4,875,577 0.36%
Hungary $4,365,928 0.32%
Israel $4,097,592 0.30%
United Arab Emirates $4,005,811 0.30%
Argentina $3,601,061 0.27%
Philippines $3,571,925 0.27%
Finland $3,385,137 0.25%
Peru $3,134,002 0.23%
Romania $3,091,215 0.23%
Bulgaria $2,302,054 0.17%
Ecuador $1,501,310 0.11%
Slovenia $1,166,232 0.09%
Dominican Republic $735,558 0.05%
Bolivia $723,272 0.05%
Vietnam $719,740 0.05%
Croatia $684,386 0.05%
Latvia $630,225 0.05%
Egypt $627,502 0.05%
Lithuania $597,371 0.04%
Iceland $590,719 0.04%
Kuwait $581,972 0.04%
Lebanon $558,067 0.04%
Estonia $541,648 0.04%
Serbia and Montenegro $439,813 0.03%
Trinidad & Tobago $388,115 0.03%
Uruguay $377,533 0.03%
Qatar $367,017 0.03%
Jamaica $341,385 0.03%
Jordan $302,035 0.02%
Bahrain $223,847 0.02%
Oman $118,158 0.01%
Syria $61,893 0.00%
INTERNATIONAL TOTAL $915,100,000 67.99%
WORLDWIDE TOTAL $1,345,947,000 100.00%

AVATAR's Worldwide Performance: Per Capita

I used several sources to come up with this chart. First, BOM's Global breakdown of Avatar's numbers (here), which is frankly questionable. I included grosses for 2 territories, but excluded regional data. For Russia, I used Russia's population only, not that of the CIS, since Russia accounts for slightly less than half of the total CIS population but the overwhelming majority of Avatar's regional gross (if that number is for all of the CIS, at all). Most figures are for Jan. 10th, 2010.


For population numbers, I used Wikipedia, which ranks the countries using data from the UN (estimates from July 1st, 2009).

I broke down North America into the US and Canada. Tribute.ca (here) gives Avatar's Canadian total as $43.71m Canadian, which translates, using a 0.97 exchange rate, to around $42.4m. I subtracted that number from Avatar's $430.85m North American total to get a figure for the US market alone ($388.45m).

Take all of this with a grain of salt. There are so many variables at play here, it's useless to read anything much into all of this, beyond a few basic points, the main one being the fact that Avatar is performing exceptionally strong in Australia, France, and Spain. But we already knew that. :-)


Country Per Capita Gross Total USD Population
Australia $2.6165 $57,860,731 22,114,000
Denmark $2.0361 $11,264,712 5,532,531
Hong Kong $1.8715 $13,117,211 7,008,900
Iceland $1.8600 $590,719 317,593
France $1.5581 $101,393,223 65,073,482
Norway $1.5119 $7,338,314 4,853,800
Sweden $1.3288 $12,400,165 9,331,523
Singapore $1.3088 $6,527,894 4,987,600
Spain $1.3077 $60,112,290 45,967,632
United States $1.2597 $388,448,000 308,354,000
Canada $1.2483 $42,399,000 33,965,000
Switzerland $1.2447 $9,673,584 7,771,600
New Zealand and Fiji $1.2247 $6,367,232 5,199,100
South Korea $1.1315 $54,688,982 48,333,000
United Kingdom $1.0809 $67,063,506 62,041,708
Austria $1.0752 $9,002,969 8,372,930
Germany $0.8962 $73,381,489 81,882,342
United Arab Emirates $0.8710 $4,005,811 4,599,000
Greece $0.8339 $9,427,868 11,306,183
Netherlands $0.7359 $12,203,351 16,581,900
Belgium and Luxembourg $0.7325 $8,299,289 11,329,726
Taiwan $0.7090 $16,356,079 23,069,345
Finland $0.6323 $3,385,137 5,353,600
Slovenia $0.5684 $1,166,232 2,051,770
Russia $0.5526 $78,422,271 141,915,979
Israel $0.5457 $4,097,592 7,509,000
Portugal $0.5388 $5,731,447 10,636,888
Hungary $0.4360 $4,365,928 10,013,628
Czech Republic/Slovakia $0.4301 $6,853,665 15,934,334
Estonia $0.4041 $541,648 1,340,415
Japan $0.3980 $50,760,456 127,530,000
Chile $0.3379 $5,750,928 17,018,000
Bulgaria $0.3038 $2,302,054 7,576,751
Trinidad & Tobago $0.2899 $388,115 1,339,000
Bahrain $0.2830 $223,847 791,000
Latvia $0.2801 $630,225 2,249,700
Mexico $0.2645 $28,442,031 107,550,697
Qatar $0.2605 $367,017 1,409,000
Poland $0.2547 $9,703,779 38,100,700
Venezuela $0.2034 $5,822,558 28,623,000
Malaysia $0.1977 $5,597,453 28,306,700
Kuwait $0.1950 $581,972 2,985,000
Lithuania $0.1794 $597,371 3,329,227
Croatia $0.1543 $684,386 4,435,056
Brazil $0.1468 $28,224,642 192,325,000
Romania $0.1440 $3,091,215 21,466,174
Colombia $0.1397 $6,323,720 45,263,000
Lebanon $0.1321 $558,067 4,224,000
Jamaica $0.1256 $341,385 2,719,000
Turkey $0.1254 $8,969,218 71,517,100
Uruguay $0.1123 $377,533 3,361,000
Peru $0.1076 $3,134,002 29,132,013
Thailand $0.1075 $6,817,339 63,389,730
Ecuador $0.1064 $1,501,310 14,111,000
Ukraine $0.1063 $4,889,781 46,011,345
Argentina $0.0897 $3,601,061 40,134,425
Bolivia $0.0732 $723,272 9,879,000
Dominican Republic $0.0729 $735,558 10,090,000
Jordan $0.0478 $302,035 6,316,000
Serbia and Montenegro $0.0420 $439,813 10,474,000
Oman $0.0415 $118,158 2,845,000
Philippines $0.0387 $3,571,925 92,226,600
China $0.0310 $41,417,617 1,335,230,000
Indonesia $0.0211 $4,875,577 231,369,500
India $0.0152 $17,821,955 1,175,500,000
Vietnam $0.0084 $719,740 85,789,573
Egypt $0.0081 $627,502 77,724,000
Syria $0.0028 $61,893 21,906,000