Preliminary Predictions for the Upcoming Weekend

Just a few quick thoughts:

I'm going safe with G.I. Joe and predicting $25m. If that is safe. I suspect it could drop just 50% and end up around $27m, but I'm not willing to give it that at this moment.

District 9 has been marketed terrifically, in my opinion. I found the trailer to be very effective. I could see a high-20s opening for it. Let's say $27-8m for now.

I'm very bullish on The Time Traveler's Wife. The book has been a wild success for years, and it's main demographic-basically, women-continues to be underrated at the box office. The theatre count is low, yes, but I do wonder if mid-30s is attainable. I suspect this is just hyperbole speaking right now, so I'll probably lower it to $30-32m, and go with that.

Whatever the case, we're going to have a strong weekend ahead.

Biggest August Opening Weekends

I've mentioned before that August is generally not known for large openings. Looking at the chart below, I think one gains a greater appreciation for G.I. Joe's and Julie & Julia's opening weekends, which are both now among the just 31 August releases to open with $20m or more. G.I. Joe's opening is the 4th largest ever, while Julie & Julia's comes in at #31.

G.I. Joe: First Weekend

G.I. Joe's opening weekend marks the 73rd biggest opening of all time, and the 9th biggest opening of 2009.

In terms of admissions, the film ranks much lower, landing in the 135th spot on the all-time chart:

And adjusted for inflation:

Brief Weekend Recap (August 7th-9th, 2009)

Here's the weekend chart, with actuals.

A few briefs comments:

-G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra had a strong opening with $54.7m, which was down considerably from the $56.2m estimate due to a larger Sunday drop than the one predicted by the studio. The film defied bad publicity at several stages of its development and pre-release. Its subequent run will depend on several factors over the coming days, but the film looks to have a fairly solid overall gross as well. Word of mouth is average, which suggests that it might not help up too well in the face of mounting competition in the weeks to come. Working away from an assumed $23-25m second weekend, I'd put the total at $145m at this point.

-Julie & Julia had a good opening with $20m. Films of this kind tend to have healthy runs, and the film has enough room to acquire audiences over the next month or two. I think it's too early to tell at this point whether it can get close to $100m, but $80-90m should be easily achievable.

-Terrible hold for Funny People. Look for the film to fizzle out even further as it starts shedding theatres. I see $57m at most, unless the film stabilizes at some point later on and adds a few more million.

-The 50% drop for Harry Potter is unfortunate, but the film is still headed toward $300m. Potter was evidently affected by G.I. Joe, but the steep thearte count drop is partly responsible as well.

-The Hangover held up well again, despite the fact that this is its second worst drop. A remarkable performance continues to be, well, remarkable. $270m is within easy reach, and I suspect the film might even get past $273m.

-Transformers looks safe to pass $400m, while Ice Age 3 will miss the $200m mark due to the theatre count drop. International figures more than make up for anything domestic shortcomings, however, as Ice Age 3 looks to possibly become one of the four biggest international films of all time. Up looks to finish with $289-290m.

The top 12 films this weekend grossed a total of $132m, up 16.3% from last weekend and 18.4% from the same weekend last year, when The Dark Knight continued at the top of the charts for a fourth weekend in a row. This is also the 16th biggest weekend of the year and the 12th biggest of this summer (that is, the 4th worst).

Charts coming up!

August 7-9, 2009: Weekend Estimates

Weekend estimates for this weekend are out now. Have a look here.

A few quick notes:

G.I. Joe's $56.2m constitutes a very good opening. The film has followed the trajectory of recent big films that open big on Friday and decline day to day over the weekend ($22.25m to &18.25m to &15.7m). I suspect the estimated 14% drop on Sunday is a bit too generous, but the film should stay above $55m, with actuals. This makes it the 8th largest opening weekend of the year and the 66th of all time. As far as August openings go, G.I. Joe can now claim the 4th biggest August opening of all time, after The Bourne Ultimatum ($69.3m), Rush Hour 2 ($67.4m), and Signs ($60.1m), and ahead of Rush Hour 3 $49.1m.

August tends to be quite strange for opening figures. It is generally not known for large openings, although the examples above make it clear that there is potential for big openings. Historically, the August-September period, like the Jan-Feb one, has been used as a kind of dumping ground by studios to dispose of low tier releases. This is partly why August has seen several breakout hits over the years that built up weekend to weekend, such as The Fugitive and The Sixth Sense.

G.I. Joe has given the lacklustre second part of this summer a welcome boost, and it should contribute another $100m or so to the overall tally.

The weekend's other major release, Julie & Julia, also did quite well, just passing the $20m mark. The most encouraging aspect of its performance is the Saturday increase, which bodes well for its overall run. It is difficult to determine at this point what its overall trajectory will be like, but the film looks set to pass the $70m hurdle at the least, and might even get to the $80m mark. $100m is also not entirely out of the question yet, although steady holds are required. Put this down as another success for both Meryl Streep and Amy Adams.

Regarding the other films, Funny People had a terrible sophomore session, dropping 65% from last weekend. The film is an unqualified failure for its director and two male leads. The holdovers in general had steep drops this weekend, with The Hangover having, unsurprisingly, the best drop in the top 10. (500) Days of Summer had a decent if not spectacular expansion.