Sunday, August 9, 2009

August 7-9, 2009: Weekend Estimates

Weekend estimates for this weekend are out now. Have a look here.


A few quick notes:

G.I. Joe's $56.2m constitutes a very good opening. The film has followed the trajectory of recent big films that open big on Friday and decline day to day over the weekend ($22.25m to &18.25m to &15.7m). I suspect the estimated 14% drop on Sunday is a bit too generous, but the film should stay above $55m, with actuals. This makes it the 8th largest opening weekend of the year and the 66th of all time. As far as August openings go, G.I. Joe can now claim the 4th biggest August opening of all time, after The Bourne Ultimatum ($69.3m), Rush Hour 2 ($67.4m), and Signs ($60.1m), and ahead of Rush Hour 3 $49.1m.

August tends to be quite strange for opening figures. It is generally not known for large openings, although the examples above make it clear that there is potential for big openings. Historically, the August-September period, like the Jan-Feb one, has been used as a kind of dumping ground by studios to dispose of low tier releases. This is partly why August has seen several breakout hits over the years that built up weekend to weekend, such as The Fugitive and The Sixth Sense.

G.I. Joe has given the lacklustre second part of this summer a welcome boost, and it should contribute another $100m or so to the overall tally.

The weekend's other major release, Julie & Julia, also did quite well, just passing the $20m mark. The most encouraging aspect of its performance is the Saturday increase, which bodes well for its overall run. It is difficult to determine at this point what its overall trajectory will be like, but the film looks set to pass the $70m hurdle at the least, and might even get to the $80m mark. $100m is also not entirely out of the question yet, although steady holds are required. Put this down as another success for both Meryl Streep and Amy Adams.

Regarding the other films, Funny People had a terrible sophomore session, dropping 65% from last weekend. The film is an unqualified failure for its director and two male leads. The holdovers in general had steep drops this weekend, with The Hangover having, unsurprisingly, the best drop in the top 10. (500) Days of Summer had a decent if not spectacular expansion.

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