Thursday, February 4, 2010

Opening Weekends: 4,000+ Theatres

Thus far, only 26 films have opened in 4,000+ theatres. Among those, only Over the Hedge had an opening below $40m and thus a per-theatre average below $10,000.


Some more interesting points:
-9 of the 26 releases have registered opening weekends above $100m.
-9 of the films are animated, all of them CGI
-18 of the films are franchise films: sequels, threequels, etc.
-6 of the films are superhero/comic book films
-4 of the films have an avg. of $30k+, 8 of $25k+, and 12 of $20k+

1 The Dark Knight $158,411,483 4,366 $36,283
2 Spider-Man 3 $151,116,516 4,252 $35,540
3 The Twilight Saga: New Moon $142,839,137 4,024 $35,497
4 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $135,634,554 4,133 $32,817
5 Shrek the Third $121,629,270 4,122 $29,507
6 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End $114,732,820 4,362 $26,302
7 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen $108,966,307 4,234 $25,736
8 Shrek 2 $108,037,878 4,163 $25,951
9 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $100,137,835 4,260 $23,507
10 Iron Man $98,618,668 4,105 $24,024
11 Spider-Man 2 $88,156,227 4,152 $21,232
12 X-Men Origins: Wolverine $85,058,003 4,099 $20,751
13 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $77,835,727 4,325 $17,997
14 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $77,108,414 4,285 $17,994
15 Transformers $70,502,384 4,011 $17,577
16 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa $63,106,589 4,056 $15,559
17 Kung Fu Panda $60,239,130 4,114 $14,642
18 Monsters Vs. Aliens $59,321,095 4,104 $14,454
19 G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra $54,713,046 4,007 $13,654
20 Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian $54,173,286 4,096 $13,226
21 Superman Returns $52,535,096 4,065 $12,923
22 Mission: Impossible III $47,743,273 4,054 $11,776
23 Shark Tale $47,604,606 4,016 $11,853
24 Madagascar $47,224,594 4,131 $11,431
25 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs $41,690,382 4,099 $10,171
26 Over the Hedge $38,457,003 4,059 $9,474


Est. admissions and adjusted for inflation, the grosses are as follows (est. avg. for 2010 $7.75):

# Film Est. Adm. Count Avg. Adjusted Adj. Avg.
1 The Dark Knight 22,062,881 4,366 5,053 $170,987,325 $39,163
2 Spider-Man 3 21,964,610 4,252 5,166 $170,225,727 $40,034
3 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest 20,707,565 4,133 5,010 $160,483,633 $38,830
4 The Twilight Saga: New Moon 19,433,896 4,024 4,829 $150,612,695 $37,429
5 Shrek the Third 17,678,673 4,122 4,289 $137,009,715 $33,239
6 Shrek 2 17,397,404 4,163 4,179 $134,829,880 $32,388
7 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End 16,676,282 4,362 3,823 $129,241,185 $29,629
8 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen 14,825,348 4,234 3,501 $114,896,446 $27,137
9 Spider-Man 2 14,195,850 4,152 3,419 $110,017,836 $26,498
10 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull 13,946,774 4,260 3,274 $108,087,496 $25,373
11 Iron Man 13,735,191 4,105 3,346 $106,447,727 $25,931
12 X-Men Origins: Wolverine 11,572,517 4,099 2,823 $89,687,010 $21,880
13 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 11,207,618 4,285 2,616 $86,859,042 $20,270
14 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince 10,589,895 4,325 2,449 $82,071,685 $18,976
15 Transformers 10,247,440 4,011 2,555 $79,417,656 $19,800
16 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa 8,789,219 4,056 2,167 $68,116,444 $16,794
17 Kung Fu Panda 8,389,851 4,114 2,039 $65,021,345 $15,805
18 Monsters Vs. Aliens 8,070,897 4,104 1,967 $62,549,454 $15,241
19 Superman Returns 8,020,625 4,065 1,973 $62,159,846 $15,291
20 Shark Tale 7,665,798 4,016 1,909 $59,409,935 $14,793
21 G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra 7,443,952 4,007 1,858 $57,690,627 $14,397
22 Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian 7,370,515 4,096 1,799 $57,121,492 $13,946
23 Madagascar 7,367,331 4,131 1,783 $57,096,818 $13,822
24 Mission: Impossible III 7,289,049 4,054 1,798 $56,490,132 $13,934
25 Over the Hedge 5,871,298 4,059 1,446 $45,502,561 $11,210
26 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs 5,672,161 4,099 1,384 $43,959,246 $10,724

Lowest Opening Weekends in 3,000 and 3,500 Theatres

Films that open widely in 3,000+ theatres tend to open with at least $10m, and films with 3,500+ theatre counts almost always register openings higher than $25m, but there have been times were films have registered low openings despite wide saturation. Among those, the worst by far has been Hoot, which had a disastrous $3.37m opening in 3,018 theatres. The following is a list of the worst openings in 3,000 and 3,500 theatres.

Worst Opening Weekends in 3,000+ Theatres

1 Hoot $3,368,197 3,018 $1,116
2 The Seeker: The Dark Is Rising $3,745,315 3,141 $1,192
3 Meet Dave $5,251,918 3,011 $1,744
4 Imagine That $5,503,519 3,008 $1,830
5 New York Minute $5,962,106 3,006 $1,983
6 The Wild Thornberrys $6,013,847 3,012 $1,996
7 Quest for Camelot $6,041,602 3,107 $1,944
8 Shorts $6,410,339 3,105 $2,065
9 Astro Boy $6,702,923 3,014 $2,224
10 Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas $6,874,477 3,086 $2,227
11 The Nativity Story $7,849,304 3,183 $2,466
12 Aliens in the Attic $8,008,423 3,106 $2,578
13 The Ant Bully $8,432,465 3,050 $2,764
14 School for Scoundrels $8,602,333 3,004 $2,863
15 Cheaper by the Dozen 2 $9,309,387 3,175 $2,932
16 Stuck on You $9,411,055 3,003 $3,133
17 Babylon A.D. $9,484,627 3,390 $2,798
18 Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo $9,626,287 3,127 $3,078
19 Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium $9,630,085 3,164 $3,043

Worst Opening Weekends in 3,500+ Theatres

1 Charlotte's Web (2006) $11,457,353 3,566 $3,212
2 Herbie: Fully Loaded $12,709,221 3,521 $3,609
3 Nim's Island $13,210,579 3,513 $3,760
4 Snakes on a Plane $13,806,311 3,555 $3,883
5 Gridiron Gang $14,414,630 3,504 $4,113
6 Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit $16,025,987 3,645 $4,396
7 The Shaggy Dog $16,310,058 3,501 $4,658
8 The Legend of Zorro $16,328,506 3,520 $4,638
9 Just Like Heaven $16,408,718 3,508 $4,677
10 RV $16,414,767 3,639 $4,510
11 Surf's Up $17,640,249 3,528 $5,000
12 Fred Claus $18,515,473 3,603 $5,138
13 Speed Racer $18,561,337 3,606 $5,147
14 Flushed Away $18,814,323 3,707 $5,075
15 Land of the Lost $18,837,350 3,521 $5,350
16 The Spiderwick Chronicles $19,004,058 3,847 $4,939
17 Poseidon $22,155,410 3,555 $6,232
18 Monster House $22,217,226 3,553 $6,253
19 The Polar Express $23,323,463 3,650 $6,389
20 Open Season $23,624,548 3,833 $6,163

Films With $30M+ Openings Weekends in Less than 3,000 Theatres

As suggested by the post title, this is a list of all the 48 films that opened above $30m while playing in less than 3,000 theatres. A sub-3000 theatre count is not entirely unheard of nowdays, but it is unusual for blockbusters. Tyker Perry's films, which tend to play to a particular audience and have thus a concentrated target, are the most obvious examples of recent films that had large openings from relatively small theatre counts. Hannah Montana's enormous opening on an incredibly small theatre count is an obvious standout as well.

1 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace $64,820,970 2,970 $21,825
2 Batman Forever $52,784,433 2,842 $18,572
3 8 Mile $51,240,555 2,470 $20,745
4 Independence Day $50,228,264 2,882 $17,428
5 Jurassic Park $47,026,828 2,404 $19,561
6 Batman Returns $45,687,711 2,644 $17,279
7 Batman & Robin $42,872,606 2,934 $14,612
8 Scary Movie $42,346,669 2,912 $14,542
9 Twister $41,059,405 2,414 $17,008
10 Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail $41,030,947 2,032 $20,192
11 The Lion King $40,888,194 2,552 $16,022
12 Batman $40,489,746 2,194 $18,454
13 The Fast and the Furious $40,089,015 2,628 $15,254
14 The Waterboy $39,414,071 2,664 $14,795
15 Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls $37,804,076 2,652 $14,254
16 Air Force One $37,132,505 2,919 $12,720
17 Interview with the Vampire $36,389,705 2,604 $13,974
18 Star Wars (Special Edition) $35,906,661 2,104 $17,065
19 Gladiator $34,819,017 2,938 $11,851
20 Couples Retreat $34,286,740 3,000 $11,429
21 Ransom $34,216,088 2,676 $12,786
22 Wedding Crashers $33,900,720 2,925 $11,589
23 101 Dalmatians (Live Action) $33,504,025 2,794 $11,991
24 The Haunting $33,435,140 2,808 $11,907
25 A Bug's Life $33,258,052 2,686 $12,382
26 Lethal Weapon 3 $33,243,086 2,510 $13,244
27 Superbad $33,052,411 2,948 $11,211
28 Rush Hour $33,001,803 2,638 $12,510
29 Scream 2 $32,926,342 2,663 $12,364
30 Blade II $32,528,016 2,707 $12,016
31 Terminator 2: Judgment Day $31,765,506 2,274 $13,969
32 Saw II $31,725,652 2,949 $10,758
33 The Truman Show $31,542,121 2,315 $13,625
34 Liar Liar $31,423,025 2,845 $11,045
35 Home Alone 2: Lost in New York $31,126,882 2,222 $14,008
36 Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour $31,117,834 683 $45,560
37 Bringing Down the House $31,101,026 2,801 $11,103
38 Star Trek: First Contact $30,716,131 2,812 $10,923
39 Knocked Up $30,690,990 2,871 $10,690
40 Bruno $30,619,130 2,756 $11,110
41 Saving Private Ryan $30,576,104 2,463 $12,414
42 Bram Stoker's Dracula $30,521,679 2,491 $12,252
43 The Happening $30,517,109 2,986 $10,220
44 Unbreakable $30,330,771 2,708 $11,200
45 The X-Files: Fight the Future $30,138,758 2,629 $11,463
46 DodgeBall: A True Underdog Story $30,070,196 2,694 $11,161
47 The Exorcism of Emily Rose $30,054,300 2,981 $10,081
48 Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion $30,030,661 2,194 $13,687

A Note on The All Time Domestic #1s: Star Wars, E.T., Titanic

As noted here, Titanic held the record for biggest domestic film for for 620 weeks, or 4,343 days, or 11 years, 10 months, and 19 days.


What about previous record holders? Well, given the sparse data, exact dates can't really be given for films prior to the 1980s, although Gone With the Wind has occupied the top perch for longer than any film, from 1939 to the 1960s. Beginning with E.T., however, it is possible to get some exact info. OK, so here it goes:

Between its May 1977 opening and E.T. release in June, 1982, Star Wars: A New Hope had accumulated a total of $307,263,857, making it the biggest film of all time, surpassing Jaws, whose total was at around $260m. As evident from this chart, Star Wars' total did not approach $200m, let alone $300m, until well after 1977, and it's likely that the film did not surpass Jaws until sometime in the middle of 1978, a year after its release.

E.T. opened on June 11th, 1982. Almost exactly two months later, in August, Star Wars was re-released, adding $15,476,285 to its original tally. That brought A New Hope's total to $322,740,142- the benchmark E.T. had to surpass in order to claim the all-time record.

As it happens, while Star Wars was having its re-release, E.T. was experiencing a stunning run at the box office. The film was #1 for most of the summer, and would end up with 16 weekends at #1, more than any other film and one more weekend than Titanic.

E.T. surpassed the $300m mark on Dec. 11th, 1982, 184 days into its run (see here), and surpassed Star Wars' initial total of $307.3m on Dec. 25th, 1982.

On January 14th, 1983, with a total of $322,956,667, E.T. surpassed Star Was to claim the record for biggest domestic release. If we take mid-1978 as the moment at which Star Wars surpassed Jaws, then that means that it held the record for biggest film of all time for roughly 4 1/2 years, or 54 months.

E.T.'s initial total came out to an enormous $359,197,037. The film had two re-releases, one in 1985, and one in 2002 (which we don't have to worry about). The film's 1985 release was hugely successful, adding $40,607,502 to the film's initital gross for a total of $399,804,539. This number, so tantalizingly close to $400m, would be the domestic benchmark for over a decade, until Star Wars' re-release in 1997.

The Star Wars trilogy was re-released in 1997. The re-releases were spectacularly successful; A New Hope added $138,257,865 to its gross, bringing its total just before Titanic's release to $460,998,007, thereby allowing the film to re-claim the all-time title from E.T.

Star Wars surpassed E.T.'s $399.8m, and became the first film to surpass the $400m mark, on February 13th, 1997.

E.T. was the #1 film of all time, therefore, between January 14th, 1983 and February 13th, 1997. It held the record for an astonishing 5,144 days (801 more than Titanic), or almost 735 weeks (115 weeks more than Titanic), or for slightly more than 14 years.

Star Wars' reign as the new, old champ, of course, did not last long. The film was surpassed by Titanic on March 14th, 1998. Star Wars was, therefore, #1 for 394 days, or 56 weeks and 2 days. In combination with its initial run, the film was #1 for around 5 1/2 years, or roughly 67 months.


In summary, therefore:

E.T. January 14th, 1983-February 13th, 1997 (5,144 days)
Star Wars: A New Hope February 13th, 1997-March 14th, 1998 (394 days)
Titanic March 14th, 1998-February 2nd, 2010 (4,343 days)
Avatar February 2nd, 2010-?

One interesting note: since Star Wars surpassed Jaws in the summer of 1978, for the last 30 years, the domestic box office crown passed from one film to another during the first three months of the year.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

The Road to #1: An Avatar Box Office Chronology

The following two charts essentially track Avatar's progress up the box office chart, as it was surpassing various films on its way to the #1 spot domestically. As you can see, the brisk pace of the film up the charts is quite amazing. It took the film only ten days after it passed The Dark Knight to surpass Titanic's all time record.



Avatar Surpasses Titanic's Domestic Record

The most prestigious record at the domestic box office is now, as expected, Avatar's. On Tuesday, Avatar surpassed Titanic to become the biggest film of all time at the North American box office. The film, now at $601,141,551 after 47 days, surpassed Titanic's $600,788,188 cume. James Cameron is now the only filmmakers whose film has surpassed his previous one to achieve the all time record. Steven Spielberg came very, very close with Jurassic Park and E.T., but Jurassic Park, while it raced past E.T. globally, remained well behind E.T. on the domestic front.

Avatar will not be losing much steam anytime soon, and looks headed for $800m now. A truly historic run, irrespective of the film's artistic merits.

As for Titanic, it became the biggest film of all time on March 14th, 1998, on its 86th day, by surpassing Star Wars: A New Hope's $461m, which included the $138m tally from the film's 1997 re-release.

Titanic was #1 domestically for 620 weeks, or 4,343 days, or 11 years, 10 months, and 19 days.

It is highly unlikely that Avatar's record will stand for this long. In fact, I expect a film to surpass Avatar sometime this decade, as ticket price inflation will increase the likelihood of $500m+ films. And as Avatar itself demonstrates, nothing remains stagnant at the box office.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Avatar Weekend Records: 2nd to 7th Weekends

In my opinion, the most impressive aspect of Avatar's run domestically and internationally has been its amazing legs; the film has held up incredibly well weekend to weekend, and in fact now holds the biggest second to seventh weekends. Also incredible: the difference between its new records and the previous ones. The film has been ahead of the other films, mostly Titanic, by very wide margins. The film will have enough to steam to get the 8th weekend record as well next week, but the 9th weekend record, which is held by Titanic with $28m, looks to be finally too insurmountable for Avatar. Overall, however, a truly historic streak of records.



Second Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $75,617,183 3,456 $21,880 Diff. #1&2 $450,717
2 The Dark Knight $75,166,466 4,366 $17,216 % Diff. 0.60%
3 Shrek 2 $72,170,363 4,223 $17,089
4 Spider-Man $71,417,527 3,615 $19,755
5 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $62,345,264 4,133 $15,084
Third Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $68,490,688 3,461 $19,789 Diff. #1&2 $23,453,776
2 Spider-Man $45,036,912 3,615 $12,458 % Diff. 52.08%
3 The Dark Knight $42,664,219 4,266 $10,001
4 Shrek 2 $37,931,716 4,131 $9,182
5 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $35,215,201 4,133 $8,520
Fourth Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $50,306,217 3,422 $14,701 Diff. #1&2 $21,589,907
2 Titanic $28,716,310 2,746 $10,458 % Diff. 75.18%
3 Spider-Man $28,508,104 3,876 $7,355
4 The Dark Knight $26,117,030 4,025 $6,489
5 The Chronicles of Narnia 1 $25,686,555 3,853 $6,666
Fifth Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $42,785,612 3,285 $13,025 Diff. #1&2 $12,774,578
2 Titanic $30,011,034 2,767 $10,846 % Diff. 42.57%
3 The Sixth Sense $22,896,967 2,775 $8,251
4 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace $18,859,021 3,019 $6,246
5 The Dark Knight $16,379,293 3,590 $4,562
Sixth Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $34,944,081 3,141 $11,125 Diff. #1&2 $9,705,361
2 Titanic $25,238,720 2,771 $9,108 % Diff. 38.45%
3 The Sixth Sense $16,511,464 2,782 $5,935
4 Mrs. Doubtfire $16,346,568 2,325 $7,030
5 Aladdin $15,642,073 2,255 $6,936
Seventh Weekend Gross Count Avg.
1 Avatar $31,280,029 3,074 $10,176 Diff. #1&2 $5,372,857
2 Titanic $25,907,172 2,853 $9,081 % Diff. 20.74%
3 The Passion of the Christ $15,216,723 3,240 $4,696
4 The Blind Side $11,912,749 2,926 $4,071
5 Mrs. Doubtfire $11,536,024 2,345 $4,919


Here's a graph comparing Avatar's weekends grosses with those of either the top films or the previous record holders. Avatar corresponds to the black line; the other reflects The Dark Knight's opening weekend record, Spider-Man 1's previous third weekend record, and for the rest, Titanic's previous 4th to 7th weekend records.

Saturday, January 30, 2010

Avatar: International Market Shares

This is a ranking of Avatar's markets and the share of the film's total that they account for. France's share, of course, is amazing, as is Australia's and that of many other territories. Avatar's total is spread out generously across many territories. In other words, it's doing great everywhere.


Country/Territory Share Total Gross
United States of America 26.974% $495,990,100
France 6.789% $124,843,250
China 5.608% $103,113,774
Russia 5.235% $96,259,863
Germany 5.211% $95,811,129
United Kingdom and Ireland 5.068% $93,186,189
South Korea 4.334% $79,691,558
Japan 4.225% $77,697,099
Australia 4.188% $77,003,943
Spain 4.133% $76,001,259
Canada 3.032% $55,751,400
Brazil 2.107% $38,740,895
Italy 2.039% $37,486,649
Mexico 1.929% $35,469,025
India 1.211% $22,276,532
Taiwan 1.180% $21,695,287
Hong Kong 0.913% $16,779,658
Poland 0.895% $16,453,985
Netherlands 0.883% $16,240,875
Sweden 0.870% $15,991,521
Denmark 0.866% $15,917,610
Switzerland 0.707% $12,999,706
Turkey 0.673% $12,381,951
Greece 0.631% $11,606,384
Austria 0.618% $11,366,599
Belgium and Luxembourg 0.567% $10,420,392
Norway 0.543% $9,982,702
Colombia 0.510% $9,374,152
Czech Republic/Slovakia 0.505% $9,293,702
New Zealand and Fiji 0.481% $8,836,171
Thailand 0.435% $8,004,189
Venezuela 0.422% $7,767,524
Chile 0.411% $7,564,359
Portugal and Angola 0.403% $7,407,474
Singapore 0.403% $7,405,758
Argentina 0.394% $7,238,075
Malaysia 0.348% $6,407,423
Israel 0.342% $6,288,772
Ukraine 0.323% $5,942,885
Hungary 0.316% $5,805,220
Indonesia 0.285% $5,234,122
Philippines 0.283% $5,197,803
United Arab Emirates 0.282% $5,177,465
Romania 0.233% $4,287,054
Finland 0.227% $4,179,338
Peru 0.210% $3,870,255
Bulgaria 0.164% $3,024,267
Ecuador 0.109% $1,996,001
Slovenia 0.076% $1,391,581
Croatia 0.058% $1,058,533
Dominican Republic 0.056% $1,036,515
Bolivia 0.056% $1,020,908
Egypt 0.054% $989,389
Latvia 0.049% $899,415
Lithuania 0.048% $889,003
Lebanon 0.048% $885,944
Kuwait 0.048% $880,572
Iceland 0.047% $865,636
Vietnam 0.045% $835,523
Estonia 0.043% $793,376
Serbia and Montenegro 0.038% $702,398
Qatar 0.035% $636,745
Uruguay 0.033% $601,515
Jordan 0.028% $513,589
Trinidad & Tobago 0.028% $506,153
Jamaica 0.025% $453,684
Bahrain 0.020% $366,396
Oman 0.008% $141,192
Syria 0.006% $110,169
Nigeria 0.006% $105,308
Ghana 0.001% $22,231
WORLDWIDE $1,838,802,321
NORTH AMERICA (US&CA) 30.005% $551,741,499
INTERNATIONAL 69.995% $1,287,060,822

AVATAR's Worldwide Performance: Per Capita (UPDATE)

This is an update of a chart I posted a while ago (please see below for more info). All of the country totals are for January 24th or January 20th, as is the data for North American and Worldwide grosses. Sources for the box office data is here and for population here.


All of the countries have (of course) improved. Since last Sunday, the film's international has risen to $1.352B, and it will add at least another $80m this weekend. The international tally, in the end, should be well above $1.8B, and the film looks headed for $2.6B Worldwide. Amazing.

Country/Territory Per Capita Gross Total Gross Population
Australia $ 3.4821 $77,003,943 22,114,000
Denmark $ 2.8771 $15,917,610 5,532,531
Iceland $ 2.7256 $865,636 317,593
Hong Kong $ 2.3941 $16,779,658 7,008,900
Norway $ 2.0567 $9,982,702 4,853,800
France $ 1.9185 $124,843,250 65,073,482
Sweden $ 1.7137 $15,991,521 9,331,523
New Zealand and Fiji $ 1.6996 $8,836,171 5,199,100
Switzerland $ 1.6727 $12,999,706 7,771,600
Spain $ 1.6534 $76,001,259 45,967,632
South Korea $ 1.6488 $79,691,558 48,333,000
Canada $ 1.6414 $55,751,400 33,965,000
United States of America $ 1.6085 $495,990,100 308,354,000
Singapore $ 1.4848 $7,405,758 4,987,600
United Kingdom and Ireland $ 1.4013 $93,186,189 66,501,008
Austria $ 1.3575 $11,366,599 8,372,930
Germany $ 1.1701 $95,811,129 81,882,342
United Arab Emirates $ 1.1258 $5,177,465 4,599,000
Greece $ 1.0266 $11,606,384 11,306,183
Netherlands $ 0.9794 $16,240,875 16,581,900
Taiwan $ 0.9404 $21,695,287 23,069,345
Belgium and Luxembourg $ 0.9197 $10,420,392 11,329,726
Israel $ 0.8375 $6,288,772 7,509,000
Finland $ 0.7807 $4,179,338 5,353,600
Portugal and Angola $ 0.6964 $7,407,474 10,636,888
Russia $ 0.6783 $96,259,863 141,915,979
Slovenia $ 0.6782 $1,391,581 2,051,770
Italy $ 0.6222 $37,486,649 60,250,535
Japan $ 0.6092 $77,697,099 127,530,000
Estonia $ 0.5919 $793,376 1,340,415
Czech Republic/Slovakia $ 0.5833 $9,293,702 15,934,334
Hungary $ 0.5797 $5,805,220 10,013,628
Bahrain $ 0.4632 $366,396 791,000
Qatar $ 0.4519 $636,745 1,409,000
Chile $ 0.4445 $7,564,359 17,018,000
Poland $ 0.4319 $16,453,985 38,100,700
Latvia $ 0.3998 $899,415 2,249,700
Bulgaria $ 0.3992 $3,024,267 7,576,751
Trinidad & Tobago $ 0.3780 $506,153 1,339,000
Mexico $ 0.3298 $35,469,025 107,550,697
Kuwait $ 0.2950 $880,572 2,985,000
Venezuela $ 0.2714 $7,767,524 28,623,000
Lithuania $ 0.2670 $889,003 3,329,227
Croatia $ 0.2387 $1,058,533 4,435,056
Malaysia $ 0.2264 $6,407,423 28,306,700
Lebanon $ 0.2097 $885,944 4,224,000
Colombia $ 0.2071 $9,374,152 45,263,000
Brazil $ 0.2014 $38,740,895 192,325,000
Romania $ 0.1997 $4,287,054 21,466,174
Argentina $ 0.1803 $7,238,075 40,134,425
Uruguay $ 0.1790 $601,515 3,361,000
Turkey $ 0.1731 $12,381,951 71,517,100
Jamaica $ 0.1669 $453,684 2,719,000
Ecuador $ 0.1415 $1,996,001 14,111,000
Peru $ 0.1329 $3,870,255 29,132,013
Ukraine $ 0.1292 $5,942,885 46,011,345
Thailand $ 0.1263 $8,004,189 63,389,730
Bolivia $ 0.1033 $1,020,908 9,879,000
Dominican Republic $ 0.1027 $1,036,515 10,090,000
Jordan $ 0.0813 $513,589 6,316,000
China $ 0.0772 $103,113,774 1,335,230,000
Serbia and Montenegro $ 0.0671 $702,398 10,474,000
Philippines $ 0.0564 $5,197,803 92,226,600
Oman $ 0.0496 $141,192 2,845,000
Indonesia $ 0.0226 $5,234,122 231,369,500
India $ 0.0190 $22,276,532 1,175,500,000
Egypt $ 0.0127 $989,389 77,724,000
Vietnam $ 0.0097 $835,523 85,789,573
Syria $ 0.0050 $110,169 21,906,000
Ghana $ 0.0009 $22,231 23,837,000
Nigeria $ 0.0007 $105,308 154,729,000
WORLDWIDE $ 0.2704 $1,838,802,321 6,799,500,000
NORTH AMERICA (US&CA) $ 1.6106 $551,741,499 342,564,000
INTERNATIONAL $ 0.1993 $1,287,060,822 6,456,936,000

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Avatar Estimated Admissions: Daily, Weekend, Weekly, Total

Admissions figures are always problematic in North America, since films are simply not tracked that way, but Avatar poses a particular challenge, because of the 3D and IMAX effect. The New York Times recently gave 56m as the rough estimate for tickets sold through last Monday, at which point Avatar's gross stood at $554.9m. You can read the article here.


The relevant passage:

Fox said 72 percent of worldwide sales for “Avatar” came from 3-D screens. If Mr. Dergarabedian’s estimates are correct, the movie has accounted for roughly 56 million admissions in domestic theaters to date.

That means that Avatar's average ticket price is around $9.9, which is astonishingly high. Almost 35% higher than the 2009 average of $7.35. Using that figure as the benchmark, then, here are the estimated admissions figures for Avatar's daily numbers:

Day Weekday Daily # Weekend # Weekly # Total #
1 Friday 2,702,232 2,702,232
2 Saturday 2,578,691 5,280,923
3 Sunday 2,499,429 7,780,352 7,780,352
4 Monday 1,655,133 9,435,485
5 Tuesday 1,624,895 11,060,380
6 Wednesday 1,661,141 12,721,521
7 Thursday 1,126,363 13,847,884 13,847,884
8 Friday 2,332,833 16,180,717
9 Saturday 2,856,001 19,036,717
10 Sunday 2,449,261 7,638,094 21,485,978
11 Monday 1,961,428 23,447,406
12 Tuesday 1,847,538 25,294,945
13 Wednesday 1,865,265 27,160,209
14 Thursday 1,488,701 14,801,026 28,648,910
15 Friday 2,552,930 31,201,840
16 Saturday 2,609,652 33,811,492
17 Sunday 1,755,670 6,918,251 35,567,161
18 Monday 817,632 36,384,793
19 Tuesday 740,125 37,124,918
20 Wednesday 697,896 37,822,813
21 Thursday 615,601 9,789,504 38,438,414
22 Friday 1,341,480 39,779,894
23 Saturday 2,148,438 41,928,332
24 Sunday 1,591,518 5,081,436 43,519,850
25 Monday 516,282 44,036,132
26 Tuesday 511,791 44,547,923
27 Wednesday 479,168 45,027,091
28 Thursday 474,626 7,063,304 45,501,718
29 Friday 1,049,926 46,551,643
30 Saturday 1,742,839 48,294,483
31 Sunday 1,529,014 4,321,779 49,823,497
32 Monday 1,173,317 50,996,813
33 Tuesday 423,328 51,420,141
34 Wednesday 383,112 51,803,253
35 Thursday 398,506 6,700,042 52,201,759
36 Friday 911,969 53,113,728
37 Saturday 1,649,096 54,762,824
38 Sunday 968,640 3,529,705 55,731,465
39 Monday 327,292 56,058,757
40 Tuesday 323,035 56,381,792

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

AVATAR vs. TITANIC International Market Shares

Avatar surpassed Titanic's international gross over the weekend, thus claiming one of Titanic's three big records. Avatar has made $1,287,060,822 internationally thus far, roughly $50m more than Titanic's once insurmountable $1,248,025,607. Sometime on Monday, Avatar claimed the ultimate, worldwide record by surpassing Titanic's global total of $1.848B. The domestic record is several days away from being surpassed, but it is an inevitability.


I have run out of words to describe Avatar's worldwide performance. It is, now, quite literally incomparable. I don't expect Avatar to hold the international record for as long as Titanic did, but its final tally, which will probably be around $1.8B or so, will be extremely difficult to match anytime soon.

I think it is useful to look at the market share for each film, and how much the major territories contributed to the grosses for both films.


Two things stick out:

1) Both Avatar and Titanic did exceptionally well in every market. Consistency is one of the key features of both films' successes.

2) Whereas Japan was the main market for Titanic, it is clear that for Avatar, the newer markets (China, Russia, and South Korea) have made the big difference and pushed the film over the top. In a way, the differences between the two films reflect the changes in the global economic structure. China recently surpassed Japan as the second largest economy in the world, and the economies of Russia and other emerging markets have grown by a disproportionately larger market. China is on track to surpass France as Avatar's largest market.



A Look at Film Multipliers

Multipliers are a measure of a film's longevity, and are calculated simply by dividing a film's total by a film's opening weekend. The higher the multiplier, the greater a film's legs, that is, the more impressive and healthier a film's run.

The following are charts ranking films with domestic totals of $30m or more (minus re-releases) from 1982 to the present. So, in other words, the charts below track how well medium and large sized films over the last three decades have held up during their subsequent runs.

Unfortunately, due to the varied release patterns, multipliers alone don't give an exact idea of how well films hold up. Most films open wide and drop weekend to weekend until they are pulled from theatres. Some films, such as Driving Miss Daisy or Chicago, open in limited release and then go wide later in order to take advantage of awards publicity. And yet other films, above all Disney's animated releases, such as Aladdin, The Lion King, and Pocahontas, open in a few theatres just prior to broad, nation-wide openings.

I've tried to make several charts in order to engage with these different release patterns and give credit to various films that held up remarkable well. With that in mind, here is a chart simply showing films, irrespective of their openings, and the largest multipliers:

# Title Multiplier Total ($M) Op. Wknd ($M)
1 Mr. Holland's Opus 5,707.865 $82.57 $0.014
2 Driving Miss Daisy 1,445.431 $106.59 $0.074
3 On Golden Pond 1,337.086 $119.29 $0.089
4 Aladdin 1,105.186 $217.35 $0.197
5 Snatch 1,085.785 $30.33 $0.028
6 The Killing Fields 1,078.285 $34.70 $0.032
7 I Am Sam 964.883 $40.31 $0.042
8 Beauty and the Beast 899.580 $145.86 $0.162
9 Chariots of Fire 855.833 $58.97 $0.069
10 Toy Story 2 819.062 $245.85 $0.300
11 A Civil Action 809.229 $56.71 $0.070
12 Fried Green Tomatoes 782.575 $82.42 $0.105
13 Thirteen Days 741.238 $34.59 $0.047
14 Homeward Bound: The Incredible Journey 689.500 $41.83 $0.061
15 Traffic 671.895 $124.12 $0.185
16 Legends of the Fall 655.443 $66.64 $0.102
17 Murphy's Romance 644.335 $30.87 $0.048
18 Good Morning, Vietnam 637.763 $123.92 $0.194
19 Moonstruck 631.984 $80.64 $0.128
20 The Crying Game 618.641 $62.55 $0.101
21 Black Hawk Down 604.143 $108.64 $0.180
22 My Dog Skip 599.453 $34.13 $0.057
23 Platoon 574.625 $138.53 $0.241
24 March of the Penguins 563.213 $77.44 $0.137
25 A Bug's Life 559.213 $162.80 $0.291
26 Million Dollar Baby 558.436 $100.49 $0.180
27 Gran Torino 545.029 $148.10 $0.272
28 A Fish Called Wanda 541.456 $62.49 $0.115
29 Philadelphia 539.949 $77.45 $0.143
30 Nell 537.539 $33.68 $0.063
31 The Verdict 534.523 $53.98 $0.101
32 The Cider House Rules 522.672 $57.55 $0.110
33 Good Will Hunting 507.246 $138.43 $0.273
34 Grand Canyon 492.154 $33.24 $0.068
35 Anastasia 484.535 $58.41 $0.121
36 Life Is Beautiful 481.394 $57.25 $0.119
37 Wag the Dog 467.663 $43.06 $0.092
38 A Beautiful Mind 465.047 $170.74 $0.367
39 The Queen 462.584 $56.44 $0.122
40 Chocolat 453.671 $71.51 $0.158
41 Leaving Las Vegas 451.992 $32.03 $0.071
42 Shakespeare in Love 447.823 $100.32 $0.224
43 Nobody's Fool 425.386 $39.49 $0.093
44 Absence of Malice 416.896 $40.72 $0.098
45 Dangerous Liaisons 410.542 $34.67 $0.084
46 Born on the Fourth of July 406.937 $70.00 $0.172
47 My Big Fat Greek Wedding 404.174 $241.44 $0.597
48 Gandhi 402.338 $52.77 $0.131

This is a list of films with openings larger than $2m. Chicago and Pocahontas, among many others, were still very much in limited release:

# Title Multiplier Total ($M) Op. Wknd ($M)
1 Chicago 82.262 $170.69 $2.075
2 Pocahontas 52.637 $141.58 $2.690
3 The Empire Strikes Back 42.643 $209.40 $4.910
4 An Officer and a Gentleman 39.276 $129.80 $3.305
5 Arthur 35.102 $95.46 $2.720
6 Tootsie 31.983 $177.20 $5.540
7 Terms of Endearment 30.989 $108.42 $3.499
8 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial 30.349 $359.20 $11.835
9 Fantasia 2000 (35mm & IMAX) 26.481 $60.66 $2.291
10 9 to 5 26.039 $103.29 $3.967
11 Raiders of the Lost Ark 25.231 $209.56 $8.306
12 Rain Man 24.669 $172.83 $7.006
13 Out of Africa 23.938 $87.07 $3.637
14 Flashdance 22.796 $92.92 $4.076
15 Crocodile Dundee 21.745 $174.80 $8.039
16 Top Gun 21.578 $176.79 $8.193
17 Titanic 20.979 $600.79 $28.638
18 Full Metal Jacket 20.907 $46.36 $2.217
19 Little Women (1994) 20.771 $50.08 $2.411
20 Fatal Attraction 20.604 $156.65 $7.603
21 Bean 20.095 $45.32 $2.255
22 Coal Miner's Daughter 19.957 $67.18 $3.366
23 Back to the Future 18.885 $210.61 $11.153
24 Grumpy Old Men 18.109 $70.17 $3.875
25 The Karate Kid 18.048 $90.82 $5.032
26 48 HRS. 18.048 $78.87 $4.370
27 Ghost 17.851 $217.63 $12.192
28 Reds 17.369 $40.38 $2.325
29 Ghostbusters 16.883 $229.24 $13.578
30 Home Alone 16.729 $285.76 $17.082

This is perhaps the most interesting chart. It lists films with openings above $10m. E.T. and Titanic are obviously the big standouts, but note Avatar, which already has a remarkable multiplier of 7.163, which will only get bigger and will almost certainly now pass 10x. Amazing.

# Title Multiplier Total ($M) Op. Wknd ($M)
1 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial 30.349 $359.20 $11.835
2 Titanic 20.979 $600.79 $28.638
3 Back to the Future 18.885 $210.61 $11.153
4 Ghost 17.851 $217.63 $12.192
5 Ghostbusters 16.883 $229.24 $13.578
6 Home Alone 16.729 $285.76 $17.082
7 Three Men and a Baby 16.157 $167.78 $10.384
8 Pretty Woman 15.815 $178.41 $11.281
9 Beverly Hills Cop 15.430 $234.76 $15.215
10 Who Framed Roger Rabbit 13.936 $156.45 $11.226
11 Forrest Gump 13.484 $329.69 $24.451
12 There's Something About Mary 12.844 $176.48 $13.741
13 Gremlins 11.842 $148.17 $12.512
14 As Good as It Gets 11.777 $148.48 $12.607
15 Sister Act 11.737 $139.61 $11.895
16 Look Who's Talking 11.570 $140.09 $12.108
17 The Sixth Sense 11.000 $293.51 $26.681
18 Return of the Jedi 10.973 $252.58 $23.020
19 Mrs. Doubtfire 10.709 $219.20 $20.469
20 Miss Congeniality 10.631 $106.81 $10.047
21 Twins 10.017 $111.94 $11.175
22 Rocky III 9.986 $124.15 $12.431
23 Parenthood 9.523 $100.05 $10.506
24 City Slickers 9.518 $124.03 $13.032
25 The Silence of the Lambs 9.497 $130.74 $13.767
26 Stuart Little 9.324 $140.04 $15.018
27 Honey, I Shrunk the Kids 9.165 $130.72 $14.263
28 A Few Good Men 9.108 $141.34 $15.517
29 The Karate Kid Part II 9.097 $115.10 $12.652
30 Jumanji 9.065 $100.48 $11.084
31 Jerry Maguire 9.011 $153.95 $17.084
32 Hook 8.849 $119.65 $13.523
33 The Ring 8.600 $129.13 $15.015
34 Aliens 8.472 $85.16 $10.052
35 Speed 8.387 $121.25 $14.456
36 Disclosure 8.245 $83.02 $10.068
37 Night at the Museum 8.243 $250.86 $30.434
38 Cast Away 8.089 $233.63 $28.883
39 A League of Their Own 7.827 $107.53 $13.739
40 Basic Instinct 7.781 $117.73 $15.129
41 Dumb and Dumber 7.772 $127.18 $16.363
42 Something's Gotta Give 7.764 $124.73 $16.065
43 The Fugitive 7.739 $183.88 $23.759
44 Cape Fear 7.708 $79.09 $10.261
45 Superman II 7.672 $108.19 $14.101
46 Fun with Dick and Jane 7.671 $110.33 $14.384
47 The Untouchables 7.609 $76.27 $10.023
48 Jurassic Park 7.593 $357.07 $47.027
49 The Green Mile 7.593 $136.80 $18.017
50 The Santa Clause 7.496 $144.83 $19.322
51 Rambo: First Blood Part II 7.455 $150.42 $20.176
52 The Prince of Tides 7.452 $74.79 $10.035
53 Sleeping with the Enemy 7.374 $101.60 $13.778
54 Presumed Innocent 7.364 $86.30 $11.719
55 Sleepless in Seattle 7.342 $126.68 $17.254
56 The Bodyguard 7.341 $121.95 $16.612
57 A Time to Kill 7.338 $108.77 $14.823
58 Charlotte's Web (2006) 7.243 $82.99 $11.457
59 Lethal Weapon 2 7.222 $147.25 $20.389
60 The Family Man 7.181 $75.79 $10.555
61 Seven 7.178 $100.13 $13.950
62 Avatar 7.163 $551.74 $77.025
63 The Hunt for Red October 7.110 $122.01 $17.162
64 Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom 7.099 $179.87 $25.337
65 Saving Private Ryan 7.082 $216.54 $30.576

Here is a ranking of films with totals above $100m:

# Title Multiplier Total ($M) Op. Wknd ($M)
1 Driving Miss Daisy 1,445.431 $106.59 $0.074
2 On Golden Pond 1,337.086 $119.29 $0.089
3 Aladdin 1,105.186 $217.35 $0.197
4 Beauty and the Beast 899.580 $145.86 $0.162
5 Toy Story 2 819.062 $245.85 $0.300
6 Traffic 671.895 $124.12 $0.185
7 Good Morning, Vietnam 637.763 $123.92 $0.194
8 Black Hawk Down 604.143 $108.64 $0.180
9 Platoon 574.625 $138.53 $0.241
10 A Bug's Life 559.213 $162.80 $0.291
11 Million Dollar Baby 558.436 $100.49 $0.180
12 Gran Torino 545.029 $148.10 $0.272
13 Good Will Hunting 507.246 $138.43 $0.273
14 A Beautiful Mind 465.047 $170.74 $0.367
15 Shakespeare in Love 447.823 $100.32 $0.224
16 My Big Fat Greek Wedding 404.174 $241.44 $0.597
17 Slumdog Millionaire 392.536 $141.32 $0.360
18 Juno 346.717 $143.50 $0.414
19 Dances with Wolves 307.909 $184.21 $0.598
20 Dreamgirls 272.769 $103.37 $0.379
21 The Lion King 197.167 $312.86 $1.587
22 Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon 193.121 $128.08 $0.663
23 American Beauty 151.006 $130.10 $0.862
24 The Aviator 119.590 $102.61 $0.858
25 The Blair Witch Project 92.946 $140.54 $1.512

And finally, here is a ranking of the most successful films, those with $200m in total. Aladdin opened in limited release initially, as did Toy Story 2 and The Lion King. The biggest story here is My Big Fat Greek Wedding, which all things considered has had the most impressive multiplier of any film over the last three decades:

# Title Multiplier Total ($M) Op. Wknd ($M)
1 Aladdin 1,105.186 $217.35 $0.197
2 Toy Story 2 819.062 $245.85 $0.300
3 My Big Fat Greek Wedding 404.174 $241.44 $0.597
4 The Lion King 197.167 $312.86 $1.587
5 The Empire Strikes Back 42.643 $209.40 $4.910
6 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial 30.349 $359.20 $11.835
7 Raiders of the Lost Ark 25.231 $209.56 $8.306
8 Titanic 20.979 $600.79 $28.638
9 Back to the Future 18.885 $210.61 $11.153
10 Ghost 17.851 $217.63 $12.192
11 Ghostbusters 16.883 $229.24 $13.578
12 Home Alone 16.729 $285.76 $17.082
13 Beverly Hills Cop 15.430 $234.76 $15.215
14 Forrest Gump 13.484 $329.69 $24.451
15 The Sixth Sense 11.000 $293.51 $26.681
16 Return of the Jedi 10.973 $252.58 $23.020
17 Mrs. Doubtfire 10.709 $219.20 $20.469
18 Night at the Museum 8.243 $250.86 $30.434
19 Cast Away 8.089 $233.63 $28.883
20 Jurassic Park 7.593 $357.07 $47.027
21 Avatar 7.163 $551.74 $77.025
22 Saving Private Ryan 7.082 $216.54 $30.576
23 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace 6.650 $431.09 $64.821
24 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring 6.637 $313.36 $47.211
25 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl 6.550 $305.41 $46.631
26 Terminator 2: Judgment Day 6.449 $204.84 $31.766
27 Shrek 6.321 $267.67 $42.348
28 Batman 6.204 $251.19 $40.490
29 Wedding Crashers 6.173 $209.26 $33.901
30 The Hangover 6.166 $277.32 $44.979